The myth-buster’s guide to the “millionaire exodus” scare story

Millionaires are staying where they are, despite over 18000 news pieces published around the world since the start of 2024 claiming otherwise.

The news reporting is largely based on a report by golden passport sellers Henley & Partners, and has resulted in the UK government giving more generous tax breaks to some of the wealthiest households.

We’ve put together this short guide to help cut through the noise.

Less than 1% – that’s how many millionaires are supposedly leaving

News reporting about millionaires leaving almost always present numbers but not percentages. For example, the 16,500 millionaires supposedly leaving the UK is less than 1% of UK millionaires. When put into perspective, the number of millionaires supposedly leaving is statistically insignificant. This has been consistently the case at a global level since 2013, when the claims began.

The report’s author admits his data is “skewed” but won’t make it public

The author of the Henley report has publicly acknowledged the data behind the claims is “skewed” towards much wealthier centi-millionaires and billionaires, which means it’s unrepresentative of millionaires in general and so can’t support the claims in the news. The data is primarily based on where people said they work on social media, not on actual migration. The report author has not made his data public for others to verify.

The report’s definition of “millionaires” leaves out most millionaires

The report defines “millionaires” as people with more than $1 million in liquid assets, which leaves out most millionaires whose main asset is likely to be their home, and focuses on the most mobile millionaires. For the UK, this leaves out 75% of millionaires. This is almost never made clear in news reporting. Even with this narrower definition, the number of “liquid millionaires” leaving are still a tiny percentage: less than 3% of the UK’s “liquid millionaires”.

The report factchecks its own claims about wealth exodus in a footnote

The report makes claims about how much wealth the millionaires supposedly leaving represent, which many news stories have presented as the wealth that will be lost from a country when millionaires move away. The report’s methodology quietly acknowledges this isn’t the case, and that many will keep “much of their wealth” where it is.

Most millionaires support a wealth tax

News reporting has focused on a statistically insignificant number of millionaires supposedly migrating and mostly ignored the 80% of UK millionaires who support a wealth tax (58% across G20 countries).

More extreme wealth shrinks economies

The idea that governments should be worried about superrich individuals leaving misses the point on the harms of extreme wealth. The rise of extreme wealth is directly linked to lower economic productivity, more households going into debt and to people living shorter lives.

Extreme wealth is collected, not earned, and is taxed much less than earned wealth

Most people primarily earn wealth (wages and salaries for work) but the superrich primarily collect wealth (dividends and rent for owing things). Collected wealth is often taxed much less than earned wealth, which helps the superrich get richer faster, which shrinks economies. Wealth taxes end the special treatment wealth collectors get over wealth earners, which is necessary for protecting people, economies and planet.

For a deeper dive, see our report “The millionaire exodus myth”.

Money can’t buy health, but taxes can improve healthcare

No one likes going to the doctor. When you’re guaranteed a neighbourhood health system with community health workers, and a clinic close by with medical staff on duty, reliable electricity and water, and medicines available, it’s one thing. However, for those people living with failing, poorly designed or underfunded healthcare systems, waking up in the middle of the night with a feverish child is a nightmare.

Having enough money in your pocket doesn’t change this situation either. And most people who have the greatest health needs don’t have enough money in their pockets to pay for expensive private care. In contrast, enough money in the government’s public purse would make all the difference. Governments can finance better public healthcare systems, train, employ and equitably distribute more staff, and build the necessary infrastructure, so that more people will live longer, healthier lives.

Government spending accounts for the lion’s share of total healthcare spending globally, well beyond private healthcare provision, but governments need enough money. Taxes are crucial for making sure countries have the necessary resources. However, the pathway between taxes and better healthcare is not always clear, especially outside the world of tax justice.

This is why a group of us – researchers and health activists – mapped out how tax justice can make all the difference in improving health in our recent contribution to the Global Health Watch 7, the People’s Health Movement’s flagship publication. This provides critical and affirmative content on the political economy, health system, and wider issues that affect health today to inform the activist mobilisation for health justice that the current situation demands.

The pathways between taxes and health

Taxes can transform society and healthcare when the five principles of tax justice, or the 5Rs, are active in tax systems. Tax is about far more than raising revenue. Briefly, these are

A picture of the pathways between taxes and health

We created a diagram to explain the links, or pathways, between taxes and health.

The left-hand circle illustrates the key global influences on national policies. For example, a multinational enterprise may avoid taxes, which reduces the government revenue available for public services.

The right-hand circle represents the broader determinants of health, which are directly impacted by the five principles of tax justice. For example, the number of people smoking is, to some extent, determined by a government’s policy on taxing tobacco, which multinational enterprises may influence.

The central boxes illustrate the principles of tax justice and their potential positive impact. However, the current international financial system and influential global and national actors often undermine these principles.

Pathways between taxes and health

Stealing taxes sickens society

Taxes may be society’s superpower. Yet deep historic and structural global injustices mean that governments are often unable or unwilling to generate and allocate taxes in ways that dismantle inequalities effectively.  

Tax injustice takes many guises. Tax abuse costs the world an estimated $492 billion in lost tax revenue every year. This happens when multinationals shift profits to tax havens, away from where they do business, extracting resources, marketing digital products, and employing people, and when wealthy individuals stash their money offshore to hide it from the tax collectors where they live or generate income.

Tax havens enable this plunder. People avoid paying taxes and use these havens to circumvent criminal laws, transparency requirements, financial regulation, and more. The biggest enablers of tax abuse are not the small palm-fringed island havens that we commonly imagine. Instead, the Tax Justice Network demonstrates that,

The UK and its dependent territories (aka the UK’s “second empire”) are responsible for 23 per cent of the corporate tax losses. The “axis of tax avoidance” (the UK and its second empire, plus the Netherlands, Luxembourg and Switzerland) are together responsible for 33 per cent. In total, OECD member countries and their dependencies account for more than 6 of every ten dollars lost.

The State of Tax Justice 2024

Tax injustice infringes on the lives, rights, and well-being of the vast majority of people and further marginalises already-discriminated groups. Using conservative estimates of tax losses, equivalent to just under 2% of government revenue, Malawi suffers at the hands of multinational companies and wealthy individuals offshoring their profits and wealth. The losses are equivalent to:

Taxes save lives

Countries can and must use their tax superpowers. If Nigeria had the equivalent tax revenue it loses each year because multinational companies shift their profits, 11 more Nigerian children would survive each day.

But what changes can countries make? Tax belongs to the people, so ‘Any reversal [of tax injustice] is most likely to start from the bottom up, with taxpayers becoming the key drivers of change’, as the Tax Justice Network Africa makes clear. Populations and taxpayers have the right to know and have information on how taxes are collected, where they are being levied, and how this affects them. Practically, governments should regularly publish revenue data and tax expenditures and disclose all agreements and treaties that affect revenue.

Fairer taxation is essential to fill the health financing gap for public sector health systems, including for universal coverage. Policies must promote equity between individuals with different incomes (vertical equity), ensuring that they benefit poorer groups. Countries should reject tax exemptions that reduce direct taxes on products that harm health, including gambling, tobacco and alcohol, or exempt selected sectors from taxes that fund health as an incentive for investment.

Building domestic capacity within revenue authorities to address tax abuse and expanding the tax base through taxing wealth and other fairer taxes will raise revenue, rather than focusing on the never-ending task of broadening the tax base by registering people who already survive on the bare minimum.

Regional collaboration is necessary to stop the race to the bottom in tax and reduce unnecessary tax exemptions for corporations that sweeten the deal for companies but are unnecessary for investment, and reduce a country’s tax revenue. Regional bodies like the African Tax Administration Forum in Africa and the Regional Platform for Tax Cooperation in Latin America and the Caribbean (PTLAC) are strengthening regional cooperation on tax matters. They also act as powerful blocs in international spaces, which, of course, reinforces their voices in a place dominated by economically powerful nations.

This brings us to the exciting period we are witnessing – the negotiations of a once-in-a-century opportunity for a United Nations tax convention. Why hasn’t this been in place before, you might wonder? The short version is that it’s a long story of the wealthiest nations, from the League of Nations through to the OECD, undermining efforts to better tax their multinational companies.

Reforming taxes in likely and unlikely places

The UN is more inclusive and representative, in contrast to the OECD’s domination in setting tax rules that benefit only their rich member countries (and even those rules are crumbling with recent developments in the US). In contrast, UN member states as signatories to international human rights treaties are legally bound to implement conventions. They are held accountable by UN bodies and can keep each other accountable transparently and in the public interest.

These new rules may emulate the ABCs of tax transparency, the Tax Justice Network has set out as part of the larger Global Alliance for Tax Justice. Initially dismissed as utopian, these measures formed the basis for global OECD-designed (but watered-down) tax transparency measures. They are now considered essential transparency rules supporting domestic enforcement so that tax authorities can audit corporations and trace untaxed offshore wealth, although there is still a long way to go.

Calls for international tax reform, and a shift to the UN as the place for rule-setting have become more urgent with the scale of global health challenges, including pandemics and the climate emergency. Leaving these challenges to dwindling overseas development aid and other forms of unpredictable or voluntary financing is problematic for the equity and sustainability in investment that these challenges urgently require.

Climate financing in the form of overseas development aid has failed to meet pledges or needs, with climate-related loans adding debt burdens to what are already inequitable climate burdens, carbon credit schemes using carbon markets while leaving the drivers of climate change unmanaged, and power left in the hands of high-income countries which are the primary drivers of the climate crisis.

Global influencers promoting tax transparency and tax justice, including redistribution, are emerging from unlikely places. A small but growing number of multinational companies voluntarily have Fair Tax Mark accreditation under the Global Multinational Business Standard, which signals that they abide by the principles of fair tax. This includes paying the right amount of tax (but no more) in the right place at the right time, according to both the letter and the spirit of the law. It also means companies are providing sufficient public information to enable their stakeholders to form a rounded and informed view of their beneficial ownership, tax conduct and financial presence (across the world if they are a multinational).

Wealthy individuals associated with the organisations Patriotic Millionaires and Millionaires for Humanity have asked to be taxed more on their assets and inheritance. In an open letter, millionaires and billionaires sent to leaders attending the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland in 2022, they wrote, ‘As millionaires, we know that the current tax system is not fair… The world—every country in it—must demand that the rich pay their fair share. Tax us, the rich, and tax us now.’

Activist communities and engaged policymakers are already shaping a world to stem tax abuse, tax systems within and across countries are becoming fairer, and taxes are effectively contributing to healthier societies. However, corporate resistance to this growing movement is strong and comes from many sides, which is why more people working in the public health sector need to join the struggle.

The elephant in the room of business & human rights

The abusive tax practices of multinational corporations are driving pervasive and chronic human rights violations all over the world. The issue of corporate tax abuse has somehow remained largely absent from implementation of the United Nations Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights (UNGPs), however. 

A new film and briefingCorporate Tax Abuse: the elephant in the room of business and human rights – demonstrates how taxation must be addressed in the implementation of the UNGPs, both by governments and by private sector entities. Through case studies of Ireland and Kenya, both of which have been vocal champions of the Business and Human Rights agenda, the report and film examine how human rights norms and standards should be incorporated into the design and implementation of taxation policies, the negotiation of international taxation agreements and the tax planning strategies of business actors. 

The UNGPs represent the definitive, authoritative interpretation of how international human rights law pertains to the distinct but complementary responsibilities and obligations of both states and business entities.  

During the negotiations that went before their adoption, powerful corporate lobbies succeeded in removing any explicit mention of taxation from the Principles. In the years since, however, the issues of just taxation and financial transparency have risen up the human rights agenda, amidst growing recognition of the determinative impact taxation – at both domestic and international levels – has on the full spectrum of human rights outcomes. Recognition of the significance of crossborder tax abuse led the United Nations Working Group on Business and Human Rights to highlight taxation as a crucial concern in its 2021 stocktaking of the first 10 years of the UNGPs.  

Meanwhile, the State of Tax Justice 2024 demonstrates that countries lose US $492 billion to crossborder tax abuse each year. Of this sum, the largest share – some $347 billion – is lost to cross-border tax abuse by multinationals, while $145 billion is lost to offshore tax abuse by wealthy individuals. This torrent of lost revenue decimates governments’ capacity to provide quality public services and, in turn, the realisation of fundamental human rights. And although it is the industrialised economies of the Global North that lose most in absolute terms, the impact on human rights realisation is far greater in poorer nations where the losses incurred represent a much higher proportion of government spending.  

Indeed, crossborder tax abuse may be the most severe and pervasive driver of human rights violations linked to the activities of business entities. It is for this reason that governments seeking to properly implement the UNGPs, and hold businesses to account for their human rights responsibilities, must address taxation as a core element of this commitment.  

Both this film and briefing were produced with support of the European Union (Horizon Europe Framework). Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the granting authority. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.

How the UN Model Tax Treaty shapes the UN Tax Convention behind the scenes

In March 2025, the UN Tax Committee finalised its 2025 update of the UN Model Convention, which serves as a template for bilateral tax treaties, particularly those signed by Global South countries. A new report by the Tax Justice Network analyses the many changes made to the UN Model. These changes are not without relevance for the upcoming negotiations on the UN Tax Convention. As explained in this blog, while formally without ties, the work of the Committee appears to be playing its part in shaping the direction of the Convention. The UN Model (2025) update may therefore be an indication of what is yet to come in the Convention negotiations.  

In this new report by the Tax Justice Network, we summarise and provide background on the many changes made in the 2025 update to the UN Model Convention.  

The 2025 update of the UN Model Convention received final approval by the UN Tax Committee during its 30th Session, held in Geneva in March 2025. The session was the last formal gathering of the Experts of the Committee’s 2021-2025 term. It also marked the final moment of formal approval for the many other policy instruments developed by the Committee over the last four years.  

As noted in a previous blog on this topic by Sol Picciotto, it is with remarkable energy that the outgoing membership of the UN Tax Committee delivered outputs covering a wide range of issues, including wealth and solidarity taxes (with  guidance on the taxation of wealth and a UN wealth tax sample law), environmental taxation, indirect taxes, health taxes, and refinement of transfer pricing guidance.  

Most eye-catching are of course the UN Tax Committee’s changes to its flagship publication, the UN Model Convention.  

Bilateral tax treaties can support domestic resource mobilisation as long as they implement a fair and equitable allocation of taxing rights. If not, tax treaties can quickly turn into liabilities for lower-income countries, carrying substantial unforeseen costs and freezing their policy space, especially in relation to locally active foreign companies. The UN Model Convention serves as the most important benchmark in this regard, and as a counterpoint to the model developed by the OECD. Whereas the OECD Model is skewed towards the interests of countries that are exporters of capital, technology and services, the UN Model strives to further the interests of countries that are importers.  

With each update of the UN Model, the UN Tax Committee continues its work on the strengthening of source state taxation rights under the model and tax treaties. This new report by the Tax Justice Network comments on the important changes made in the 2025 update of the UN Model Convention.  

New features of the UN Model (2025) 

The report provides a summary and background of the many changes made by the UN Tax Committee to the UN Model (2025). These changes range from alteration of the distributive rules for all types of cross-border services to a subject-to-tax rule and an important priority rule on the interplay between dispute resolution mechanisms in tax treaties and international investment agreements. 

Achieving more with less

Today, the UN Tax Committee is the only body of the UN that is fully dedicated to the development of cross-border tax policy instruments geared towards the interests and realities of countries in the Global South.  

As a non-governmental entity that is notoriously underfunded, the Committee’s outputs are essentially crowdsourced and rely on the time and goodwill of the Experts and observers who contribute to the technical work of the Committee’s subcommittees. As the Co-Chair of the Committee phrased it in her closing remarks at the 30th session: “thank you to your employers”–national governments, academia or civil society organisations. 

The G77 has long insisted to change this sorry state of affairs. A concerted effort by the G77 in 2015 at the Third International Conference on  Financing For Development Conference to upgrade the UN Tax Committee to a properly funded intergovernmental body to provide an inclusive forum to discuss global tax norms was blocked by countries including the UK and the US. These countries argued, among other reasons, that global tax discussions were already taking place under the OECD.  

Subsequent years of largely unsuccessful and not globally inclusive tax discussions at the OECD further fuelled Global South countries’ realisation of the need for  a more inclusive system of global tax governance. It is this failure to upgrade the UN Tax Committee, combined with a call by the African Group in 2019  and the African Union and Economic Commission for Africa in 2021 for the development of a UN tax convention to combat illicit financial flows and aimed at eliminating base erosion, profit shifting, tax evasion and other tax abuses, that has culminated in the currently ongoing negotiations of a UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation (UNFCITC). 

Committee’s relation status with the Convention: it’s complicated 

The question then arises: what is the UN Tax Committee’s relationship and position regarding the UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation?   

In short: there is no position or relationship. The UN Tax Committee has not expressed any points of view on the Convention and its negotiations. There is also no formal relationship between the work of the UN Tax Committee and the Convention. The Committee is a non-political and non-intergovernmental body tasked with the development of non-binding tax policy instruments geared towards the interests of Global South countries. The Convention is largely driven by the same goals but will be the result of an intergovernmental process of technical and political negotiations. If signed and ratified by countries, the Convention will create a binding international framework for tax governance at the United Nations. It remains to be seen what the position of the UN Tax Committee will be. As negotiations begin, the clearest proposal is for the tax committee to be adopted as a subsidiary body under the Convention’s new governance structure. 

In the meantime, many of the Experts of the 2021-2025 term of the Committee have assumed roles in country delegations participating in the Convention negotiations. A few of them (including the Co-Chairs of the Committee) have assumed positions of co-leads in the Convention negotiation workstreams. The Convention process and the UN Tax Committee also rely on the same secretariat staff at the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs.  

Given the history and the people involved in key positions, it was to be expected that some of the discussions held at the UN Tax Committee would feed into the Convention negotiations, and that the Convention may be more aligned with the Committee’s work than some might expect. 

The release of the Draft Issues Notes for each of the three negotiation workstreams seems to confirm this expectation. 

We have (draft) issues 

Heavily anticipated by non-country stakeholders, the release of the Draft Issues Notes on 27 June 2025 provides a first glimpse of the direction the upcoming negotiations will take on the three workstreams. These workstreams are: Workstream I on the framework convention; Workstream II on the taxation of services; and Workstream III on dispute prevention and resolution. 

As noted by the workstream co-leads during the multi-stakeholder briefings, the Draft Issues Notes reflect what countries have been debating in frequent virtual meetings – some reportedly attended by over one hundred countries – in the three workstreams of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee of the Convention.  

The Draft Issues Notes do not necessarily reveal much about the actual rules or policy decisions that will eventually have to be made in the Convention, but they do provide valuable insight into the issues and solutions on country delegates’ minds. 

Many of these issues and solutions are remarkably close to the discussions held at the UN Tax Committee in recent years. In the Note on Workstream II on the taxation of services, the co-Leads emphasize the possibility of keeping the services protocol broad in scope, rejecting the Secretariat’s implicit suggestion that it should apply only to digital services. The Note then continues by explaining the unsatisfactory solution for the taxation of cross-border services in the OECD Model and the effort by the UN Tax Committee to develop alternative rules in the UN Model Convention, including references to some of the new rules such as Article 12AA, Article 12C, and new Article 8 (Alternative A), which have been added to the UN Model in 2025 and  are  discussed in the Tax Justice Network’s new report on the UN Model (2025)

It is also noted in the Draft Issues Note that the focus in the workstream has largely been on the provisions of bilateral tax treaties and how they restrict or eliminate source taxation. It is therefore not implausible that the protocol may eventually become a multilateral implementation of the UN Model’s own allocation rules on services.  

After all, with this recent update, the UN Tax Committee has completed its mission to provide a solution for source taxation rules for fees for all types of cross-border services, whether these are automated digital services (in Article 12B, added to the UN Model in 2021),  international air and maritime shipping services (in Article 8), or any other high and low value services in between (in Article 12AA). The solution proposed under the UN Model is, however, the taxation of services on gross basis by means of withholding taxes levied by the source state on fees for services paid by local payers to non-resident service providers. The gross taxation approach may not be ideal, but it is certainly a feasible solution, and one which is already embraced by many countries in the Global South and therefore should be reckoned with in the protocol negotiations 

Similarly, in the Note on Workstream III on dispute prevention and resolution, the co-leads reiterate a prior note by the Secretariat which, among other things, mentions the use of mandatory binding arbitration under international investment agreements to address tax-related disputes and the fact that countries have questioned the inclusiveness, effectiveness, and fairness of this approach.  This led the Secretariat to conclude that a more multilateral approach to this issue could help stabilise and bring greater certainty and fairness to the international tax environment.  

Interestingly, this too can be seen as a clear hint by the Secretariat and the Workstream Leads for the Convention to continue the work done by the UN Tax Committee on this matter. As discussed in our new report, the new extended provision in Article 25 of the UN Model (2025) has been the Committee’s groundwork to reshape the skewed relationship between tax dispute settlement under investment treaties and tax treaties. 

In any event, the outgoing UN Tax Committee has contributed powerfully to the international landscape. Whether its legacy is to shape fundamentally the UN Convention remains to be seen. 

One-page policy briefs: ABC policy reforms and human rights in the UN tax convention

Get ready for UN tax talks with our ABC’s cheat sheets

In preparation for the next round of UN tax talks in August, the Tax Justice Network is producing a series of one page policy briefs on the ABC’s of tax justice and how the UN tax convention can deliver on these.

Today, we’re publishing the first three of these cheat sheets, covering the policy topics of Automatic exchange of information, Beneficial ownership transparency and public Country by country reporting.

These briefings are designed to provide a brief overview of these tax and financial transparency policies, explain why they are important for policymakers, highlight the human rights obligations underpinning these areas, and outline the most important provisions that international tax cooperation must deliver on in order to comply with the mandate to create inclusive and effective global tax governance that complies with human rights obligations.

Download policy cheat sheets

Automatic exchange of information

Beneficial ownership transparency

Country by country reporting

Upcoming UN tax talks

In just two month’s time, the next round of UN intergovernmental negotiations on global tax reforms will begin as member states convene in New York once again for the first and second substantive sessions on the UN tax convention, or the UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation (UNFCITC).

But what does this actually mean for you and me?

Tax is often obfuscated as a murky technocratic subject removed from our lives; something that ministers discuss in a sphere of theoretical economics that distracts us from the political agenda that is firmly in the driving seat. But, we all pay taxes. We are all affected by taxes. And the way that tax policy is designed can have far reaching impact on our lives, whether we see it or not.

Tax policy has the ability to raise revenue for the provision of public goods and services and also influence the behaviour of taxpayers and businesses to align with broader public goals such as growth and redistribution or even strengthening democracyNOTESee the fourth R, Representation, from the report Tax Justice & Human Rights: The 4Rs and the realisation of rights for more on how tax policy can strengthen democracy and representation..

Revenue is required for realising human rights. How governments collect that revenue (from whom and in what way) and what they do with it (fund the right to health or the right to education, for example) has far reaching consequences for our lives and can serve to strengthen and protect human rights and sustainable development, or can choose to disregard human rights and further entrench systemic inequalities.

From 4 to 15 August 2025, member states will come together to begin drafting the framework convention text and the two early protocols: Digital Services and Dispute Resolution. After intense rounds of negotiations to draft the Terms of Reference for the UN tax convention during 2024, it is a good moment to reflect on where and why this process began, with a call from the African Group for a more inclusive and effective tax cooperation at the United Nations. This was followed by a 2023 report by the UN Secretary General which concluded that existing international tax rules developed through the prevailing system are neither fair nor inclusive and that rules developed through OECD mechanisms “do not adequately address the needs and priorities of developing countries”.

In addition to striving to develop a system that is inclusive and effective and therefore has some semblance of legitimacy within a global context, States have also agreed to operate under certain principles in the drafting of the framework convention. These include a commitment to align with “States’ existing obligations under international human rights law” as well as to contribute to “achieving sustainable development by ensuring fairness in allocation of taxing rights”.

As the world’s nation states approach a critical opportunity to reprogramme the international tax system to ensure regulations are aligned with human rights and sustainable development goals, we hope that these policy briefs add to the lexicon of available Tax Justice Network resources and help provide a simple breakdown of the most important aspects of the fundamental building blocks of tax justice. We invite policymakers, civil society organizations, and the general public alike to advocate for inclusive and effective tax governance on an equal playing field for all.

Bad Medicine: A Clear Prescription = tax transparency

Big pharma competes bitterly with the tech giants for the title of most dodgy corporate sector in the world. Given this battle, it is astonishing that, on 27 May 2025, nearly one quarter of shareholders at Merck & Co (MRK, known outside of North America as Merck Sharp & Dohme or MSD), one of the largest in the big pharma sector, voted in favour of greater tax transparency. While this will not immediately change corporate practices, it demonstrates that a significant portion of global investors continue to support greater tax transparency. Corporate executives would be foolish not to take note.

This shareholder resolution, the only one of its kind this year, requested that Merck comply with the Global Reporting Initiative Tax Standard, which includes the most widely accepted format for public country-by-country reporting. This resolution follows others at Microsoft, Amazon, Cisco and Brookfield in previous years, which received similar levels of shareholder support. The significant level of support on a new issue is impressive since prior to these recent efforts, tax transparency had rarely been raised by investors at North American corporations. The prevailing narrative had been that the less tax a corporation pays, the more profits for investors, but that is shifting…

Increasingly, investors are aware that aggressive tax avoidance has its risks. Likewise, long-term investors want corporations to compete based on quality, innovation and smart business strategies rather than a willingness and ability to exploit short-term loopholes. Corporations can’t continue to claim social responsibility and then avoid tax obligations where sales are made. Microsoft, now facing a nearly UD$30 billion IRS audit – perhaps the biggest corporate tax bill in world history – is a clear case. While Microsoft claims to support the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals, it continues to shift global profits away from where products are sold to places like Ireland. In the short term Ireland is raking in revenue, but this is at the expense of countries around the world missing out on funding for health, education, sanitation and basic infrastructure.

Big pharma’s global tax dodging has been the focus of excellent analyses by Oxfam over many years. More recently, big pharma’s profit shifting has also been the focus of US Senate investigations and even garnered attention from President Trump, who proposed tackling the issue with a fresh round of tariffs on Ireland. However, big pharma’s tax dodging is even more problematic than in other sectors since it benefits hugely from public spending, tax incentives and subsidies.

Tax transparency should be required across the board from all multinationals, as Merck and others have argued – to avoid taking a lead. The good news is that Merck and many other multinationals will now be required to report on a partial country by country basis in Australia. Theoretically, Merck will be required to comply with the EU directive on public country by country reporting as well and has told shareholders it will do so. However, Romania was the first EU country to implement the directive and Merck choose to only report on Romania and not any other EU jurisdiction.

US Big Pharma Pays Nothing in US Tax

Merck has something to hide and dodges more tax in the US than any other country. A recent analysis of tax payments of the six largest US big pharma corporations revealed a collective US tax bill of less than zero in 2024, following the same pattern in the prior year. That analysis concludes that “it’s the predictable result of the tax and production structures that most large U.S. pharmaceutical companies have adopted following the 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA).” Trump’s first round tax cuts are now being extended in the “One Big Beautiful Bill” which is shaping up as a protection racket for US multinationals to continue to avoid US taxes and threatening countries collecting tax on profits earned by US corporations from sales in their own jurisdiction.

Of these six US big pharma corporations, Merck may be the dodgiest. Despite reporting more than half of its revenue in the US, it reported a loss of almost $2 billion in the US while making $22 billion abroad in 2024. Without public country by country reporting, it is difficult to know where Merck does business and pays tax (or not) outside of the US. Amgen, another of the six US big pharma corporations is already being pursued by the IRS for a US$10.7 billion tax bill after shifting profits to Puerto Rico and it faces a class action shareholder lawsuit for failure to disclose its liabilities in a timely manner.

Under the Trump administration, tax dodging in the US by the largest US multinationals will likely get even worse, but there is progress elsewhere.

Looking Up from Down Under

Even before the implementation of Australia’s public country by country reporting requirement, it is possible to get a glimpse of Merck’s global tax practices, looking from down under and up. The view will be even clearer in 2026, when Merck – and many other multinationals with at least AUD$10 million in revenue in Australia – will be required, for the first time, to publicly report on the basic financial details of its subsidiaries in Switzerland, Bermuda, Singapore, Panama, Cyprus, Hong Kong and the Cayman Islands.

Merck Sharp & Dohme (Holdings) Pty Ltd. is Merck’s primary subsidiary in Australia. Data published by the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) and compiled here, shows that Merck had nearly AUD$1.4 billion in revenue in the 2023 financial year and paid only $20.8 million in tax. This represents an estimated profit margin in Australia of 11.3% and an effective tax rate of 13.4%, less than half of Australia’s 30% corporate tax rate. Over a decade (2014-2023) the estimated profit margin averaged 9.13% with an average effective tax rate of only 12.9%. If actual profit margins in Australia were closer to Merck’s global margins (currently above 27% and averaging nearly 20% over the last 5 years), and the rate of tax paid was closer to the statutory rate, this would represent hundreds of millions in additional tax payments owed in Australia. Possible lost tax revenue in other countries, with less transparency and less enforcement, may be far greater.

A review of the most recent (2023) financial statement of Merck Sharp & Dohme (Holdings) Pty Ltd reveals how it may be artificially reducing taxable income and significantly lowering its tax payable in Australia. Firstly, the Australian company’s immediate parent is MSD Human Health Holdings B.V. in the Netherlands. This Dutch entity was paid $18.7 million in dividends in 2023 and $20 million in 2022. The Australian entity reported sales revenue of $717 million in 2023, but this included related party purchases (“made on normal commercial terms”) of $625 million with an outstanding balance payable of $137 million. These purchases were made with several Merck subsidiaries in tax havens. However, the largest direct source of finished goods sold in Australia is most likely Singapore subsidiary Merck Sharp & Dohme Asia Pacific Serves Pte Ltd. This appears to be a tell-tale sign of classic multinational tax dodging, with Singapore playing a central role in profit-shifting in the Asia-Pacific region.

Interestingly, the Singapore subsidiary has the same immediate parent as the top-level Australian subsidiary and then follows a string of ownership through the Netherlands and on to Delaware. The structure, as displayed in the chart below with the seven Dutch companies in orange, does not seem to represent any rational business purpose. There is considerably more transparency in Australia, Singapore and the Netherlands, so we can see this structure, but it is likely that its operations in the US and around the world are structured in a similar manner which would have the effect of minimising tax paid everywhere.

Simplified Structure of Merck’s Australian Business
Merck not Murky for long…

Merck can hide its murky profit shifting and tax dodging for a bit longer, but greater tax transparency is coming soon. Some global companies, over 150, are leading the way now. Others will linger in the dark as long as possible before being forced out into the sunlight. The scale of multinational tax dodging is already clear, but soon the public will know more about who, where and how. At that point, further demands for specific changes in corporate behaviour and calls for reforms to level the playing field and fund the public services and the just transition we all need, will be unstoppable!

[Image credit: Alexander Grey, Unsplash]

Tax justice pays dividends – fair corporate taxation grows jobs, shrinks inequality

Governments keep cutting headline corporate‑tax rates in the hope of attracting investment and “creating jobs”. Yet the most comprehensive cross‑country study to date tells a different story. Led by economist Agustina Gallardo –  a leading economist in public-policy evaluation and impact analysis – and developed in close coordination with Public Services International, the Network of Unions for Tax Justice, and a wider group of independent trade‑unionists, the research dismantles the myth that lower corporate taxes automatically translate into more jobs. Instead, it shows that stronger, fairer corporate tax collection underpins both decent employment and a larger share of national income flowing to wages.  

What our cross‑country data reveal  

Using over 600 data points across income groups—tax records going back to the 1990s and job‑and‑wage data for 2013‑21—the study tracks how much tax companies pay, compares it with job numbers, and sees what share of each country’s income ends up in workers’ wages. Three clear signals emerge:  

  1. Higher overall tax pressure, including corporate taxes, goes hand‑in‑hand with higher shares of formal employment.  
  1. Countries that raise more from corporate tax tend to have a higher labour‑income share — in other words, wages claim a bigger slice of the national pie.  
  1. Simply cutting nominal or effective tax rates shows no consistent link with job creation – and often coexists with high informality when enforcement is weak.  

Stronger revenues, stronger formal employment  

Across the countries studied, those that collect more tax overall generally enjoy higher levels of formal employment. In high‑income economies tax pressure hovers around 35 percent of GDP while formal employment stays above 49 percent of the working‑age population – The pattern is steady: countries that take in more tax overall also have more people working in formal jobs. When governments have steady tax income, they can invest in good schools, skills training, innovation and infrastructure — the ingredients that help businesses grow and move workers into secure, formal jobs. By contrast, weak tax takes often coincide with evasion strategies that hide both profits and payrolls.  

Bigger tax take, bigger wage share  

Revenue matters for distribution, too. Across the dataset, countries that raise more from corporate taxes also see a larger share of national income going to wages—a link that stands out most strongly in high‑income economies. Put simply, when companies pay their fair share, workers get more of the value they create.  

Why cutting rates still won’t guarantee jobs  

What about the classic lobbyist claim that lower corporate‑tax rates fuel employment? When the study matches countries’ rates with their formal‑employment levels, it finds no reliable positive link—if anything, the relationship often tilts the other way. Some nations with higher rates enjoy healthy job markets, while many low‑rate economies remain mired in informality. In most cases, the drag on employment comes from weak enforcement and profit‑shifting loopholes, not from the headline rate itself.  

Policy steps unions are putting on the table  

Armed with this evidence, trade‑union movements are pressing for reforms that tie revenue to decent work:  

Each measure strengthens the revenue–employment–wage chain discussed above, giving governments fiscal space to enforce labour standards and fund active‑labour‑market policies.  

Putting the evidence to work  

This new research reflects a wider historical trend:  countries such ad the United States, Australia, and European nations experienced their strongest periods of economic growth and industrialization during eras with higher corporate tax rates, particularly in the post-World War II period.  

After decades of lies about tax cuts and trickle down economics, working people are angry at an economic system which is not working in their interest. The false promises of job growth from tax cuts peddled by corporate lobbyists have only made things worst. This research finally provides the evidence, debunking the claim that lower corporate taxes support jobs and growth, and helps explain the low-wage, low-growth, high-inequality trap many economies have suffered for decades.  

Such evidence shows the race to the bottom is neither inevitable nor benign.  Fair corporate taxation is a pro‑job, pro‑wage, pro-development policy. These findings can inform budget debates, labour‑law reforms and the emerging UN tax‑agreement discussions.  

Read the full report: Corporate taxation & employment: dispelling the race‑to‑the‑bottom myth.  

Reclaiming tax sovereignty to transform global climate finance

Executive Summary

Climate finance is often framed as a search for new money. Our analysis and the climate finance slider released with this report, shows that the real issue is not scarcity but capture. Extreme wealth and undertaxed multinational profits are plentiful; what is missing is countries’ ability and willingness to tax them. This ability, tax sovereignty, has been weakened both by global rules that favour profit shifting and by domestic policies shaped by those who benefit most from the status quo.

We offer a blueprint for a global climate finance pool funded through progressive reforms. This report makes a critical contribution to the fight for fair and sufficient climate finance by:

Two case studies illustrate two very different tales of tax sovereignty, and the devastating linkages to climate justice and public finance. In Tanzania, we showcase how taxing rights are diluted by profit-based mining agreements, long-life stabilisation clauses that lock in tax breaks, and treaty rules that shift taxing rights abroad, all compounded by limited capacity to audit and litigate with multinational corporations. In the United Kingdom, tax sovereignty is self-restricted by successive cuts to top rates and lack of a net wealth tax, a patchwork of incentives (such as the non-dom regime) that invite underpayment, and the City’s influence over policy. The UK also incentivises profit shifting through its overseas territories, weakening its own and other countries’ tax bases.

Together, our findings demonstrate that claims of “no fiscal space” are convenient narratives, not economic facts. The report recommends the following:

Priority actions for civil society coalitions and allies

Technical actions for governments

Reclaiming tax sovereignty through these steps would not merely fill a funding gap. It would reshape global taxation to serve climate justice and restore democratic control over public finances. Revenue can be raised fairly and reliably from those most able to pay and directed to where they are most urgently needed.

1. The climate finance crisis is a crisis of power, not of resources

Countries have systematically failed to meet even the modest US$100 billion per year climate finance pledge made by developed countries at COP15 in 2009. Yet estimates now suggest that the annual cost of addressing the climate crisis around the world may reach US$9 trillion by 2030[1]. Every moment of inaction drives this figure higher. The chronic failure to mobilise and institutionalise adequate and fair climate finance is not simply a question of broken promises. It reflects political and economic power dynamics within an unjust global system.

To date, climate finance strategies have relied heavily on three pillars: voluntary contributions through public pledges, such as the US$100 billion goal for adaptation and mitigation agreed at COP15; market-based mechanisms, such as carbon trading and green bonds; and blended finance approaches designed to leverage private capital. But all three have fallen short. Voluntary pledges remain unmet, carbon markets have struggled with credibility and equity[2] issues, and private investment continues to prioritise profit over long-term resilience and justice.

By contrast, tax revenue, especially when raised through progressive and redistributive measures, offers a reliable, sovereign and equitable means of financing climate action. Taxes can be designed to reflect responsibility and ability to pay, while also strengthening democratic mandates and public trust. In the face of escalating climate costs, fiscal policy must become a central tool in delivering both national and global climate finance commitments. Financing climate action sooner rather than later is critical. This includes reparative finance for loss and damage to compensate countries harmed by a crisis they did not cause, as well as funding for adaptation and mitigation.

1.1 Why this report, and why now

Governments across the globe continue to claim that resources are scarce or unavailable. However, in reality, trillions in untapped tax revenue exist within the current global financial architecture[3]. What is missing is not money, but political will. Taxation is not merely a budgetary tool—it is a survival mechanism.

This report starts from the recognition that the climate crisis is not fundamentally a crisis of resources. It is a crisis of power, political capture and imagination. As others have noted[4], the real obstacle to change is not an absolute lack of revenue, but a failure to reimagine what progress looks like in a warming, deeply unequal world. Fossil-fuelled development paths are assumed to be inevitable or necessary, even when they are economically inefficient, environmentally devastating and politically unjust. We argue that tax, often seen as too technical or divisive, is central to breaking through this stalemate.

Specifically, we must revisit how tax sovereignty is understood and exercised in the face of the climate emergency. Tax sovereignty, the ability of states to set and enforce their own tax policies in the sovereign interest of their own people and without external interference, is often invoked by governments as a shield to protect their freedom not to tax. But in a world on fire, that freedom is no longer neutral. When the costs of the climate crisis are rising rapidly and falling most heavily on those who did least to cause it, the decision not to mobilise available tax revenues, particularly from extreme wealth or polluting profits, is no longer simply a domestic prerogative. It becomes a crisis of power, not of resources.

Today, many governments still misuse or underuse their tax sovereignty, upholding the right not to tax in ways that prevent urgently needed public finance from being raised. Many other governments are limited in their ability to exercise their tax sovereignty. This, in turn, creates a race to the bottom, making it more difficult for other countries to maximise revenue raising. Additionally, many governments have made choices to be tied down in international tax and investment protection treaties, many of which were signed before the climate emergency escalated. Undoing these choices is difficult and curtails the exercise of full tax sovereignty needed to address present climate challenges.

In this report, we focus on two specific trends:

In the Global North, governments have failed to harness the full potential of progressive taxation. Wealth taxes, which can raise trillions of US dollars annually, remain almost entirely absent, even as extreme wealth concentration and carbon-intensive capital accumulation violate the polluter pays principle. Generous subsidies and incentives[5] to polluting industries, along with sustained tax cuts, further undermine the fiscal base for climate action.

In the Global South, tax sovereignty is actively undermined, either through past decisions to be bound by outdated international treaties or through external political pressure that prevents a country from exercising its sovereignty.

Collectively, countries lose hundreds of billions of US dollars each year through corporate profit shifting and tax abuse. International tax rules, largely shaped by the OECD and wealthy countries, limit the taxing rights of developing nations. Illicit financial flows, often channelled through secrecy jurisdictions that enable opacity in financial systems to facilitate tax abuse and are hosted by the Global North, rob (all) governments of urgently needed revenue to finance their own transitions as well as promoting wasteful corruption. This is compounded by the failure of international climate finance mechanisms to deliver timely and sufficient support.

To address the climate crisis at the scale required, we must abandon the prevailing narrative of scarcity. Climate finance is too often framed as a matter of limited fiscal space, best addressed, it is claimed, through voluntary contributions, carbon markets or private investment flows. This narrative obscures the deeper issue: a refusal to tax existing wealth and profit in ways that would fund a just transition. Taxation must be reframed as a cornerstone of climate justice.  So must tax sovereignty, not as a shield for inaction, but as a tool for survival.

1.2 Tax sovereignty, human rights and reparations

This report rests on a set of core principles[6]:

Climate finance must be understood not as charity but as a matter of global justice and legal obligation. The Maastricht Principles on the Extraterritorial Obligations of States affirm that governments have responsibilities to avoid harm and to promote equity beyond their borders. This legal framework aligns with the Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and polluter pays principles, which recognise the disproportionate role of wealthy nations and polluters in causing the crisis, and their duty to finance its solutions.

A reparations-based approach to climate finance affirms that countries in the Global South have a right to access adequate, fair and reliable funding, not because of goodwill but because of ecological debt owed. Taxation is central to delivering this finance. Properly designed progressive tax policy, such as wealth taxes and rules to stop cross- border tax abuse, can not only mobilise the required revenue but also reduce inequality and limit the excess consumption of the very wealthy. Tax is both a fiscal and behavioural tool.

To make this argument tangible, this report introduces a new interactive tool: the climate finance slider. Based on original Tax Justice Network country level data, the tool allows users to explore how much revenue could be generated through two key tax justice reforms: introducing wealth taxes and curbing cross-border tax abuse. Crucially, it allows users to allocate this revenue between domestic spending and global climate finance contributions. This illustrates a key argument: it is a false choice to pit national spending priorities against global obligations.

The climate finance slider demonstrates that countries, including those in the Global South, can simultaneously raise public finance at home and contribute to international climate finance, provided tax sovereignty is reclaimed and fairly exercised. Most countries, in fact, are likely to be net recipients under a progressive system. What stands in the way is not technical feasibility. It is entrenched inequality and political resistance.

This report places tax sovereignty at the heart of climate justice. Many countries want to implement tax reforms to raise public revenue and finance domestic transitions but cannot do so because their sovereignty is constrained. Other countries are better able to act but choose not to implement such measures because they are perceived not to be in the national interest. Through case studies, policy recommendations, and data derived from our work on wealth taxation and longstanding research on tax abuse, we show how rethinking taxation, both globally and domestically, can help close the climate finance gap and build fairer societies in the process.

2. Inequality in a warming world: Climate breakdown and fiscal power

This section unpacks the core injustices embedded in the climate finance crisis, including what is needed, who is paying and who is not. It illustrates how entrenched global inequalities, including in taxing rights and fiscal capacity, undermine just responses to a warming world, and how wealthy nations and multinational corporations continue to benefit from existing frameworks.

2.1 The climate finance gap: costs, needs and broken promises

The global community is failing to deliver on even its most modest climate finance pledges. The US$100 billion annual target, first committed to at COP15 in 2009, has repeatedly been missed[7]. Current pledges for the Loss and Damage fund are far below the hundreds of billions of dollars that frontline communities will need. Financial needs are ballooning. By 2030, the combined cost of climate adaptation, mitigation and loss and damage may reach US$9 trillion annually[8].

These costs are not abstract: they translate into lives lost, livelihoods destroyed, and entire regions rendered uninhabitable. Climate-vulnerable countries need at least US$1.3 trillion a year by 2030 just for mitigation and adaptation[9]. Global climate finance remains severely underfunded, especially the loss and damage fund, which to date relies on inadequate, ad hoc and discretionary pledges from some rich countries rather than enforceable, fairly quantified contributions.

Meanwhile, the burden of domestic transitions is rising everywhere. Germany, for example, needs an additional €70 billion annually to reach climate neutrality[10]. Indonesia requires US$8 billion in new investments every year to align its energy sector with net zero targets[11]. South Africa’s Just Energy Transition Investment Plan (JET-IP) outlines a requirement of approximately US$98 billion over the next five years to initiate the shift from coal to renewable energy sources.

And although the scale of climate finance needs remains daunting, there are signs of cautious optimism. The cost of renewable energy technologies continues to fall and early public investment can reduce long term transition costs. This dynamic is reflected in recent modelling by the UK’s Climate Change Committee[12], among others.

But the failure to raise the necessary climate finance is not due to a lack of resources. It stems from political and corporate obstruction to mobilise revenue, particularly through fair taxation. This report argues that the narrative of revenue scarcity must be replaced with a narrative of power, responsibility and justice. Countries are not unable to raise climate finance. They are unwilling and often constrained in their ability to use the tools available to do so.

While this report focuses on international public finance flows between countries, it is important to acknowledge that funding climate policy also happens through domestic level investment by governments, households and the private sector[13].

2.2. Climate inequality: Who pays and who bears the cost

We use the term climate injustice to refer to the disproportionate climate impacts on those communities least responsible for emissions. Climate injustice is deeply intertwined with economic inequality, both between and within countries, historic and current.

As Oxfam and others have shown, the wealthiest nations and the wealthiest individuals within them are responsible for most historical and current carbon emissions. For example, the world’s wealthiest 1 per cent of people are responsible for more carbon emissions than the poorest half of humanity combined[14]. This level of carbon emissions is not incidental. It is structural. It is tied to patterns of luxury consumption, asset ownership and political capture. Rich communities can better insulate themselves against climate shocks like extreme weather events. Yet it is the poorest countries and communities who are most exposed to the worst effects of climate breakdown.

Progressive taxation, including on wealth, is therefore not just a revenue imperative. It is also a tool for reining in overconsumption and excess political and economic influence among those at the top of the economic distribution. Historic marginal tax rates of up to 95 per cent[15] were not only important for raising revenue. They also signalled social disapproval of extremes in the distribution, and imposed an upper limit on individual income and wealth holdings. Globally, former colonial powers have built enormous wealth through fossil-fuelled industrialisation and continue to dominate financial and tax systems that extract wealth from the Global South[16]. Even the diversification and ultimately greening of Europe’s energy systems, by some measures, continues to operate through those same extractivist principles[17]. For example, green colonialism depletes energy reserves and critical minerals in the Global South to power Global North infrastructure[18]. Multinational oil and gas projects degrade local ecosystems and deplete essential resources like groundwater.

Despite this, climate finance remains largely voluntary and disconnected from the polluter pays and CBDR principles[19]. A just approach to climate finance requires not only acknowledging unequal contributions to the crisis but also addressing the mechanisms that allow those responsible to avoid paying their fair share. These mechanisms include preferential tax treatments for polluting sectors[20], ‘greenlaundering’ by financial institutions and fossil fuel corporations to obscure the true scale of fossil fuel finance[21] and mechanisms to facilitate profit shifting, aggressive tax planning and tax abuse more generally.

Fair taxation, especially through the introduction of wealth taxes and reforms to limit tax abuse, offers some of the most just, effective and sustainable ways to operationalise this principle.

2.3 Tax sovereignty and the political economy of climate injustice

At the heart of the climate crisis lies a deep fiscal injustice: many of the countries most exposed to the consequences of rising temperatures are those least equipped to raise revenue for adaptation, mitigation and loss and damage. Their inability to do so is not simply a matter of administrative or economic underdevelopment, but the result of a long history of international rules, corporate strategies, illicit financial flows and political choices that have hollowed out their tax capacity and sovereignty.

A country’s tax capacity refers to its ability to effectively raise revenue through taxation. It is one of the clearest indicators related to the appropriate and effective use of tax sovereignty in light of the climate emergency, and its fiscal power more broadly. It is also a critical precondition for meaningful climate action. While high income countries typically collect 30 to 40 per cent of their GDP in tax revenue, many low and middle income countries collect less than 20 per cent, with some as low as 10 per cent. This gap reflects both domestic challenges and international constraints, as explored in the following sections.

Without sufficient tax capacity, governments cannot fund basic public services, let alone the transition to a low carbon economy. While domestic reform is essential, many of the most powerful barriers to building tax capacity lie outside national borders.

How tax sovereignty is undermined:

Sovereignty, including tax sovereignty, is often celebrated in principle but constrained in practice, especially for countries in the Global South. These constraints include:

These dynamics form a system of fiscal neocolonialism, where the ability to govern through taxation is systematically undermined. A stark illustration of the role of power dynamics is provided currently by the second Trump presidency[22], which has committed from day one to curtail the sovereignty of all other countries to tax US multinationals fairly. Countries are left to rely on regressive consumption taxes, volatile natural resource rents, or debt.

Climate justice, however, requires not just ambition, but capacity. Without the fiscal tools to raise revenue equitably, low-income and climate vulnerable countries are forced into impossible trade-offs, such as between education and adaptation, or debt service and disaster response. This is why reclaiming tax sovereignty, through both national reforms and international rule changes, is not only a matter of fiscal justice but a prerequisite for climate justice.

2.4 Realising full and fair sovereignty: Typical wealth tax and anti-tax abuse reforms

Having explored why fiscal space is constrained, we now show how governments can expand it. Two reform families can mobilise resources at scale while reinforcing tax sovereignty and fairness: progressive net wealth taxation and curbing corporate tax abuse. These two sets of reforms naturally complement each other: wealth taxes target stocks of money, whereas anti-tax abuse rules target flows and thus different bases. If tax treaty reform or implementation delays unitary taxation, a domestic wealth tax still delivers revenue and vice-versa. Both sets of reforms also focus on households and firms most responsible for historic emissions, aligning revenue potential with the polluter pays principle.

2.4.1 Progressive net wealth taxation

A net wealth tax complements inheritance, estate, property and capital gains taxes by levying an annual tax on private fortunes, either instead of or in addition to taxes on income. Net wealth taxation matters because it:

Typical design features include:

In high-income economies, a net wealth tax may yield around 1 to 2 per cent of GDP annually. For example, an enhanced version of Spain’s net wealth tax is projected to raise roughly €10.7 billion a year.[23] In lower income countries, the tax base may be smaller in absolute terms but still significant relative to public budgets.

2.4.2 Curbing corporate tax abuse

Cross-border tax abuse by multinational corporations costs countries hundreds of billions per year. Three core, complementary measures can address this:

MeasureWhat it doesIndicative revenue
Unitary taxation with formulary apportionmentTreats a multinational as one firm and allocates its global profit to where real economic activity occurs+0.5 to 1 per cent GDP[24]
Minimum effective tax rate (around 25 per cent)Top-up rules neutralise low rate jurisdictions and harmful incentivesIncluded above, prevents erosion
Transparency toolsCountry by country reporting, beneficial ownership registries, automatic information exchangeEnforcement multiplier

While these figures are indicative, and the size of revenue collected depends on factors such as economic structure and enforcement capacity, a resource rich lower middle-income country like Tanzania, for example, shifting from separate entity accounting to unitary rules could recapture roughly 0.8 per cent of GDP currently lost[25].

3.        Enough for both: reclaiming tax sovereignty to overcome climate finance scarcity

This section introduces a new interactive tool: a country-by-country climate finance slider that lets readers explore how revenue raised from two key tax justice reforms could be allocated between domestic investment and contributions to a global climate finance mechanism. The tool is based on the Tax Justice Network’s State of Tax Justice data[26] quantifying losses from cross-border tax abuse, and our modelling of a moderate net wealth tax[27]. All details of the data and associated calculations can be found in the methodology note.

What the tool makes visible is the extent of untapped revenue—and with it, the power of tax sovereignty and fiscal self-determination. Instead of theprevailing scarcity narrative around public finance, countries do not in fact face a binary choice between addressing domestic needs or contributing to global climate finance. Through progressive tax policies, most could easily do both. Revenue could be channelled into domestic decarbonisation policies, adaptation measures and essential public services. Simultaneously, countries could contribute fairly to global climate finance. As previously explained, on top of ongoing improvements in domestic climate finance flows, it is this international climate finance from developed countries to developing countries to support climate action that remains dramatically underfunded.

At the basis of these reforms lies reclaimed and fairly exercised tax sovereignty. It is an essential lever that makes self-determined, inclusive climate action possible, without countries having to choose between domestic and global spending.

3.1 How the slider works

The climate finance slider is an interactive tool that lets users explore what countries could raise and allocate if two major tax justice reforms were enacted: (1) a moderate annual net wealth tax, and (2) effective measures to end cross-border tax abuse by multinational corporations.

For each country, the tool calculates the total potential revenue available from these reforms using estimates from the Tax Justice Network. This revenue can then be split between domestic spendingand global climate finance contributions. Users control this allocation through a sliding bar, visualising how policy choices affect both national budgets and international solidarity.

The slider also uses two global indicators to determine each country’s role. Responsibility is calculated as a country’s share of historical territorial emissions as proxy to calculate its fair contribution to global climate finance. Need is calculated based on each country’s vulnerability to climate change. Details can be found in the methodology note.

For every country, the slider shows:

In short, the slider reveals what countries could achieve if tax justice were made real—and if tax sovereignty were exercised fully and fairly. It does not predict what will happen but shows what is possible under a fair and just system.

The slider is available here.

3.2 Who is missing, and why it matters

While the climate finance slider aims to be global, some countries and jurisdictions are missing due to incomplete data. This reflects gaps in historical emissions and climate vulnerability data. Without both variables, we cannot estimate fair contributions or needs, and therefore, these cases are excluded from the tool. As explained in the methodology note, the choice not to use imputation techniques or proxy data is deliberate to avoid distorting results. Critically, missing data is not random—it reflects patterns of power, invisibility, and contested sovereignty.

What is not measured is often just as important as what is[28]. Countries like Palestine, or jurisdictions such as the British Virgin Islands, Hong Kong or Jersey are excluded not simply because data is incomplete, but because they occupy politically marginal or deliberately obscured positions. Some are territories without full sovereignty, unable to participate in international negotiations. Others are major players in the global offshore tax system. These omissions highlight how those with the most to gain from climate finance—and those with the most to give—can be rendered invisible.

This is especially paradoxical because many missing jurisdictions sit at the extremes of the climate justice spectrum. They are either deeply climate vulnerable and politically constrained (like Palestine), or critical enablers of tax abuse (like the BVI or Hong Kong), or both (like Puerto Rico). Even though their aggregate effect on global revenue or finance distribution is minimal—less than 0.1 per cent of a $1 trillion fund—their absence is symbolically and politically significant. As shown in the methodology, many could still raise substantial tax revenues, even if their emissions are low and their vulnerability is high.

In short, missing from the data does not mean missing from the problem. These gaps reflect some of the same global inequalities this report seeks to address. A just climate finance model must also be a fully inclusive one. Future versions of this work may incorporate missing jurisdictions as more data becomes available. Until then, acknowledging their absence is part of building a transparent and equitable system—one that sees and counts everyone.

3.3 What the data shows

The data reveals a powerful insight: under a progressive tax system, most countries around the world would be net recipients, and still have revenue left over to spend domestically. This undercuts the dominant narrative of scarcity and dependence, showing that fiscal capacity already exists, but it is unequally distributed and politically constrained. Countries in the Global South could reduce dependence on foreign aid or volatile loss and damage funding if they were able to effectively mobilise their own resources. Countries with greater historical responsibility can contribute more, aligning with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, while having revenue leftover for domestic spending.

The slider challenges the false trade-off between local priorities and global responsibilities. It visualises a path toward sovereignty, justice and shared climate action.

Key findings include:

Based on the underlying data and findings, countries are also classified along a tax sovereignty scale, which compares their potential additional tax revenue to current tax collection levels[29].

The scale aims to illustrate how widespread constraints imposed by lacking or partially exercised tax sovereignty are on public budgets.

Tax sovereignty levelRangeShare of CountriesExample
Challenged0-5%36%Belgium (2.7%)
Endangered5-15%42%Tanzania (13.6%)
Negated+15%19%Timor-Leste (29.4%)
3.4 What this means for climate justice

Exercising tax sovereignty fairly would allow countries to fill public budgets at home and participate in a fair multilateral climate finance system. The question is no longer whether countries can afford to act, but whether they are willing to act, and whether they are allowed to. The data shows clearly that climate finance constraints are political, not fiscal. The slider is therefore more than just a numbers game. It is a visual intervention into a dominant narrative of scarcity. Too often, governments claim they cannot fund climate action at scale because public resources are limited. But if countries reclaimed their tax sovereignty and implemented fair tax reforms, most would have more than enough revenue to meet both domestic needs and contribute to global goals.

Importantly, the slider’s global finance pool functions as a partial, proxy form of climate reparations in the absence of any formal colonial or climate reparations regime. It acknowledges that wealthier, high emitting countries owe historical climate debt to those who are least responsible for emissions but most vulnerable to rising temperatures.

The tool also challenges the artificial divide between domestic priorities and global obligations. Climate-vulnerable countries, especially in the Global South, are often asked to choose between servicing external debt, financing basic public services and decarbonisation. But when endowed with mobilising their own fiscal resources, these countries can clearly do both, fund their own transitions, and reduce dependency on donor dependent, volatile climate finance.

The slider also helps operationalise principles like the polluter pays principle and common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR). Those with higher historical emissions have greater responsibility to contribute to a global fund. Those most vulnerable receive more. Contributions are not based on charity, but on fairness and justice.

Crucially, in the absence of any formal reparative framework between former colonial powers and those most harmed by climate breakdown, this global climate finance pool also functions as a partial, proxy form of climate reparations. It acknowledges that the current climate crisis is the product of unequal histories, and that those who benefitted most from carbon intensive development must now help shoulder the costs.

Finally, the slider makes visible something often ignored in climate negotiations: the power of taxation to drive justice. Just as tax injustice has helped entrench the climate crisis, through subsidies, secrecy, and the under taxation of polluters, so too can just taxation become a cornerstone of reparative climate finance. Reclaiming tax sovereignty is not only a way to raise money. It is a way to reclaim democratic control over the transition ahead.

4.        Sovereignty in action and denial

Despite formal claims, the actual autonomy countries have over their tax systems is frequently limited. To fully understand why tax sovereignty is a contested terrain, and why many countries struggle to exercise it effectively, this section explores concrete examples, demonstrating both certain countries’ failure to actively use tax sovereignty for climate finance purposes, as well as the restrictions faced by other countries attempting to exercise their tax sovereignty in that way. It highlights how historical legacies of colonialism, contemporary global economic structures, and political economy considerations continue to shape and constrain fiscal choices, with profound implications for climate finance.

4.1 Why tax sovereignty is critical

Tax sovereignty is often seen as an abstract legal principle, and is, at least in terms of an overarching goal, largely absent from climate justice advocacy.

However, it is a deeply political expression of autonomy and collective self-determination. The ability to levy and collect taxes is at the heart of state power: it is how societies determine who contributes what, and to which collective ends. Tax sovereignty and the way countries use it is what shapes countries’ achievement of tax fairness, or the 5Rs of tax justice, that is, using taxation to raise revenue, reprice goods considered to be incorrectly priced by the market, redistribute income and wealth, improve representation and channel reparations for past injustices[30].

Historically, struggles over taxation were foundational to anti-colonial movements, from the rejection of the British imperial “taxation without representation” in 18th-century north America, to uprisings against colonial taxes across Africa and Asia[31]. Following independence, newly sovereign states saw control over tax policy as a cornerstone of national development strategies[32]. Conversely, the denial of self-determination through the forced forgoing of tax revenue continues to be a key feature of illegal occupation[33].

In many post-colonial states, the sacrifice of the new states’ power to tax foreign companies in favour of the former colonial powers has consistently been pushed as a necessary concession to attract foreign investment. This view has led to many legacy investment and tax treaties that are fundamentally imbalanced when it comes to those new countries’ ability to raise tax revenue. Additionally, the promise of fiscal sovereignty was also undermined in domestic tax policy making. At the same time that countries were gaining independence from the UK’s colonial empire, new developments were kicking off on what would eventually come to be called the UK’s “second empire”: a network of British tax havens consisting of crown dependencies like Jersey and Guernsey and overseas territories like the Cayman Islands and the British Virgin Islands, and at the centre of which sits the City of London. The UK’s “second empire” is today responsible for a quarter of all the tax losses countries suffer to multinational corporations and wealthy individuals using tax havens to underpay tax[34]. It continues the colonial undermining of other nations’ tax sovereignty and self-determination.

The global turn to neoliberalism in the 1980s and 1990s brought about a powerful reorientation of tax policy, pushed via structural adjustment programmes led by international financial institutions, in particular the IMF and the World Bank, and backed by the Washington Consensus and their donor governments. Under the banner of investment reforms, many countries were urged to lower corporate tax rates, introduce tax privileges for foreign investors and limit the taxation of extractive sectors, such as mining in Peru or the extractive sector in Ghana. These reforms coincided with the expansion of global financial liberalisation and the rise of offshore finance[35], which created a structural mismatch between where economic activity took place and where profits were declared and taxed.

Today, the idea that countries retain full sovereignty over their tax systems is more of an illusion than a fact. In practice, countries’ ability to set and enforce tax rules is shaped and constrained by an international system designed around the interests of capital. For many developing countries, sovereignty is confined to taxing consumption and wages at home, while multinational corporate profits escape through a labyrinth of tax abuse and profit shifting structures. For high income countries, sovereignty is often willingly not exercised, most notably by failing to tax wealth and by refusing to challenge financial secrecy within their own economies or spheres of influence.

Even in international negotiations, appeals to respect tax sovereignty are increasingly contradictory. They are made both to protect a state’s right not to tax, often by wealthier countries; and by Global South countries seeking to reclaim rights denied to them by existing tax norms promoted by the North[36]. This contradiction sits at the heart of the current push for a UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation, an attempt to rebalance the asymmetries of global tax governance through inclusive deliberations and restore meaningful sovereignty to all countries.

In the context of climate breakdown and widening global inequalities, tax sovereignty and the way countries use it, or are prevented from using it, is no longer just a technical concept. It is a political faultline in the struggle over who pays, who decides and who benefits from the transition to a low carbon economy, or from the lack of one.

4.2 Who gains from undermining tax sovereignty?

If the erosion of tax sovereignty undermines public revenue and fiscal capacity, the next logical question is: who benefits? This section provides a short overview of key actors and mechanisms that have shaped and profited from this erosion.

At the centre of the web are multinational corporations, including those in highly polluting sectors like fossil fuels, agribusiness and shipping, as well as ultra-wealthy individuals and the financial secrecy jurisdictions that shelter their wealth. These actors profit from a global tax system that is designed to allow capital and corporate profits to move freely and with limited oversight (in stark contrast to the policing of the cross-border movement of people), while placing structural limits on certain governments’ ability to tax and allowing capital and profits to be accumulated in countries with governments that are not interested in taxing at all.[37]

Consider Shell, which in 2021 reported US$20 billion in profits yet paid no UK corporate tax[38]. Or Glencore, the mining giant repeatedly linked to aggressive tax planning and political influence operations across the Global South. Or ExxonMobil, whose use of subsidiaries in Bermuda, the Bahamas and the Cayman Islands has helped shield profits from higher tax jurisdictions[39].

These practices are legal, in part, because global tax governance has long been dominated by high-income countries and corporate interests. The OECD’s Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) initiative and the Global Anti-Base Erosion (GLoBE) rules under Pillar Two, promised to curb corporate tax abuse. But the headline minimum corporate tax rate of 15 per cent, with a litany of exemptions[40], is far below what most countries require to reinvest revenue into public finance, and the deal contains many carveouts and loopholes that significantly undermine its redistributive potential. Many low and middle-income countries were not included in negotiations, and those who opt out of the deal risk exclusion from benefit-sharing or retaliatory measures.

Meanwhile, financial secrecy jurisdictions, from Switzerland and Singapore to Guernsey, continue to act as safe havens for hidden wealth and illicit financial flows. These jurisdictions allow firms and wealthy individuals to obscure their activities and ownership structures, and to benefit from weak international enforcement around automatic exchange of tax information and beneficial ownership transparency[41].

Investor state dispute settlement (ISDS) mechanisms also play a role in weakening tax sovereignty. Polluting companies and companies with aggressive tax planning strategies have used ISDS to challenge environmental policies and tax hikes. For example, British energy firm Rockhopper sued Italy for banning offshore oil drilling[42], and ExxonMobil has previously threatened to sue countries under investment treaties in response to proposed tax reforms. The mere threat of arbitration often has a chilling effect, deterring governments, particularly those already facing fiscal pressures, from pursuing needed reforms[43].

Constricted tax sovereignty is not an accident of history. It is the result of deliberate strategies backed by corporate lobbying, investor arbitration and political pressure. These strategies protect the wealth and emissions of a powerful minority, while shifting the cost of climate finance onto those least responsible for the crisis.

4.3 The politics of lost revenue: how tax sovereignty is captured and denied

Across the world, countries are failing to realise the full potential of their sovereign power to levy tax, but not for the same reasons. As previous sections have shown, many countries do not lack financial resources, but lack the political and structural capacity to claim them. The resulting scarcity narrative is not inevitable but manufactured. It is sustained by a global economic architecture that enables tax abuse and prioritises capital mobility.

Our climate finance slider tool illustrates that most countries, across income levels, have sufficient tax potential to raise meaningful revenue through the introducing of wealth taxes and the elimination of cross-border tax abuse. Yet, whether due to external constraints or internal political inertia, these options remain underused or blocked entirely.

In the Global South in particular, constraints include:

In the Global North, the problem is most often not constraint but the failure to exercise tax sovereignty fairly:

The consequences of constrained or neglected tax sovereignty are not just theoretical. They play out in very concrete ways across both high and low-income countries. Whether it is a Global South government prevented from taxing extractive profits or a Global North government choosing not to tax excess wealth, the result is the same: foregone public revenue. As we have shown, these are not isolated policy failures. They are systemic outcomes of a global system of tax governance that privileges capital mobility over justice and entrenches inequalities.

This matters profoundly for climate finance. When governments allow trillions in tax revenue to go uncollected, they limit their ability to fund domestic transition plans. This locks the Global South into further dependency, whether through external debt, the commodification of natural resources through carbon markets, or overreliance on donor finance.

The false narrative of scarcity persists not because the revenue does not exist, but because governments are either unable or unwilling to collect it.

5. Case studies

The following case studies illustrate the global dynamics of tax sovereignty. One highlights how Global South countries are routinely blocked from claiming their taxing rights on polluting multinationals, even as they try to do so. The other shows how, in the Global North, countries exercise their sovereignty by actively deciding against taxing wealth. Together, they offer a window into the real political and capital barriers standing in the way of a just climate finance system.

5.1 Tanzania vs. Acacia Mining: Tax sovereignty in chains

Tanzania is Africa’s fourth-largest gold producer, with mining long seen as a key driver of development. Yet for years, the country collected little revenue from its gold mines. Generous mining contracts in the 1990s and 2000s granted foreign firms like Barrick Gold (operating in Tanzania via its subsidiary Acacia Mining) extensive tax incentives and stabilisation agreements. These deals, often negotiated behind closed doors, overrode general tax laws. This is a common practice in the African extractive sector that can undermine the sovereign use of taxing power.[59]  Under such agreements, companies have enjoyed low royalty rates, tax holidays and other exemptions, leaving Tanzania with limited revenue from mining profits. Meanwhile, local communities have borne the brunt of environmental harm from mining waste and pollution. This underscores how multinationals frequently violate the polluter pays principle, operating profitably while underpaying tax and avoiding responsibility for environmental and social harms.

The dispute

President John Magufuli took office in 2015 on a promise to secure a larger share of resource wealth. In March 2017, Tanzania abruptly banned the export of unprocessed gold and copper concentrates, directly impacting Acacia, which derived about 30 per cent of its revenue from those exports[60]. A presidential committee report accused Acacia of under-reporting the gold and copper content of its shipments. On this basis, authorities issued Acacia with a US$190 billion tax bill, nearly four times Tanzania’s GDP, for years of allegedly unpaid taxes and penalties[61]. The government passed new laws to void some mining contracts, raised royalty rates and demanded state ownership stakes. Acacia denied the accusations of underpaying tax and misreporting the amount and value of gold and copper contained in its exports.

Unable to independently resolve the standoff, the company’s parent, Barrick Gold, intervened. At the same time, Acacia initiated international arbitration proceedings to contest Tanzania’s actions, invoking investor protection mechanisms. By 2019, Barrick moved to buy out Acacia’s remaining shareholders and strike a deal with the government. Barrick and Tanzania soon announced a framework to settle all claims. Key terms included:

The outcome highlighted both Tanzania’s determination to assert its taxing rights and the significant barriers it faced in doing so.

Constraints to tax sovereignty

Tanzania’s clash with Acacia Mining became an example of the constraints facing Global South countries attempting to tax polluting industries on their own terms. Several structural barriers were exposed:

Tanzania’s tax treaties have historically favoured foreign investors. Many treaties follow OECD standards that emphasise taxation in the investor’s home country (residence) over the source country (Tanzania). In prior tax treaty negotiations, Tanzania has often been made to accept these OECD clauses. This means Tanzania often loses rights to tax mining profits or must accept lower withholding rates on dividends, interest and royalties. Such treaty limitations have curbed Tanzania’s ability to tax mining income at the source, even though the gold was extracted from its soil. The treaties also do not consider the changed circumstances and revenue needs caused by the climate crisis. However, renegotiating these unfair tax treatiesis difficult and slow.

The dispute demonstrates the leverage that ISDS mechanisms give to companies. Acacia initiated arbitration under international investment agreements, and some shareholders believed the company had a strong chance of winning against Tanzania[62]. An adverse ruling could have forced Tanzania to pay enormous damages or reverse its policies. Tanzania’s government had already been rattled by a prior ICSID arbitration case. Fearing costly litigation and large payouts enforced abroad, Tanzania’s lawmakers moved in 2017 to outlaw international arbitration for natural resource contracts, insisting that disputes be settled in domestic courts[63]. While this reasserted a form of sovereignty, it also sparked concern among investors and did not negate ongoing cases.

The US$190 billion claim shed light on potential profit shifting and tax abuse. Audits alleged that Acacia understated the mineral content of exports for years[64]. By under-reporting gold and copper yields, a company can shift profits out of the country, for instance by selling the minerals to an affiliated trader at an artificially low value, thereby reducing taxable income in Tanzania. Multinationals often exploit such practices, including creative transfer pricing and use of offshore subsidiaries in low tax jurisdictions. Tanzania’s experience fits a broader pattern:  African countries lose many billions annually in illicit financial outflows, much of it through corporate practices that underpay tax or involve outright evasion[65].

The roots of the dispute trace back to the very contracts and incentives that originally attracted foreign investment. In a phase of rapid development, Tanzania granted extensive tax concessions to mining companies. Some mining agreements included stabilisation clauses that locked in low royalty and tax rates, insulating companies from any future unfavourable law changes. These incentives severely limited Tanzania’s tax take once mines became productive. Mining contracts are notorious for being negotiated without public oversight, and such deals can override parliament’s taxing power, limiting the reach of local tax authorities. The Tanzanian government grew frustrated that, despite high gold prices and sizable production, companies paid only minimal royalties and had not paid income tax for many years. In effect, Tanzania’s own contracts, crafted under donor and investor influence, had constrained its tax sovereignty. Renegotiating these contracts proved challenging.

The case also revealed gaps in technical and administrative capacity. Auditing a multinational miner’s true output and profits is a complex task. Weaknesses in routine monitoring allowed underreporting to go undetected for years. Moreover, handling high-stakes negotiations and legal battles required special expertise. Tanzania found itself outsourcing negotiations to the parent company because direct talks with Acacia had broken down. In preparing for arbitration, it would likely have had to hire expensive international law firms. All of this underscores the administrative constraint: even when political will exists to claim more revenue, capacity shortfalls remain, from skilled tax auditors and geologists to experienced negotiators and legal counsel.

Resolution

By early 2020, the dispute was resolved in principle with the formation of a new joint venture to manage Barrick’s Tanzanian mines. Under the finalised agreement, Tanzania would hold a 16 per cent equity stake in each mine, which may be of lower fiscal value because dividends can be deferred and debt loaded, while Barrick retained 84 per cent ownership but agreed to split profits and economic benefits evenly with the government[66]. The one time US$300 million settlement payment was made to clear all outstanding tax claims, and Tanzania lifted the concentrate export ban, allowing operations to gradually resume. In exchange, Barrick gained assurances of stability and an end to further litigation related to the dispute.

However, it is notable that the final terms required major Tanzanian concessions compared to the country’s initial demands. The US$190 billion figure was pared down to US$300 million. The new 50/50 split of net profits, which can delay and reduce revenue compared with a sales-based royalty[67], can be seen as a revenue-sharing mechanism that allowed Tanzania to only recover a fraction of the tax it might have collected through standard channels. The resolution came only after Tanzania asserted its sovereign powers by changing laws and issuing large tax claims, but it ultimately had to compromise. This outcome illustrates how difficult it is for a Global South country to fundamentally renegotiate the terms of extraction once contracts have been signed and operations are underway.

Implications for tax sovereignty and climate finance

Tanzania’s experience with Acacia Mining encapsulates the complex challenges of preserving tax sovereignty to undertake legitimate tax policy reform, particularly over polluting multinationals, within an international tax governance system  skewed in favour of corporations. The case highlights how legal structures, corporate practices and capacity constraints can come together to limit a nation’s ability to hold extractors and polluters accountable. These tax sovereignty struggles have direct implications for climate justice and finance:

Effective climate action demands that those who cause environmental damage bear the costs. Yet, as seen in Tanzania, mining companies can operate profitably while contributing minimally to offset the damage they cause. This not only undermines accountability and public trust but also deprives governments of resources needed for climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Developing countries like Tanzania are often seen as reliant on international climate finance. However, a fair global tax system could significantly boost their domestic public budgets, making them less dependent on climate finance from donor countries or aid. Tax revenue lost to profit shifting and unfair treaties directly translates into less money for investments in renewable energy, climate resilient infrastructure and adaptation and mitigation. This loss is especially consequential in the Global South, where governments rely more on corporate tax income and are most vulnerable to the effects of climate breakdown.

The cost of sovereignty

Tanzania’s bold stance carries lessons for other countries.

On the one hand, it demonstrates that countries can try pushing back against unfair corporate tax deals and can overcome the policy freeze caused by ‘legacy’ treaties. On the other, it reveals the risks of retaliation and capital flight. Some investors may have reassessed Tanzania’s investment climate during the dispute. This underscores the need for international frameworks and stronger global rules that reconcile long-term, stable investment pathways with tax justice. There is a clear and longstanding asymmetry at play, as evidenced by dispute settlements: Global South states like Tanzania are defendants far more often than claimants, and many tax disputes are settled in opaque tribunals with little accountability. Reform can help but must be far reaching — including rules to change tax treaties, multilateral agreements that set minimum tax floors for extractive industries, and avoid ISDS in tax dispute resolution in order to protect states’ rights to tax. Climate finance advocates are increasingly recognising that stable domestic revenue-raising is essential to a sustainable transition[68]. Climate justice requires tax justice.

 

5.2 The United Kingdom: Captured not to tax wealth

The UK provides a stark counterpoint to Tanzania’s experience. It is a Global North nation with a very different relation to tax sovereignty. In particular, the UK’s persistent refusal to implement a wealth tax highlights how political and economic capture, not just technical capacity, shape tax outcomes.

Colonial legacy and the rise of tax havens

Britain’s colonial history set the stage for many of today’s tax policy choices. During decolonisation in the mid-20th century, British elites and institutions cultivated a “second empire” of tax havens in Crown Dependencies and Overseas Territories​[69]. As formal colonies gained independence, London and the City of London encouraged jurisdictions such as the Channel Islands (Jersey and Guernsey) and Caribbean territories (Bermuda, Cayman Islands, British Virgin Islands, etc.) to take on new roles as secretive offshore financial centres[70]. This “archipelago capitalism” was explicitly rooted in the British imperial decline. For example, in the 1950s, the UK encouraged its remaining dependencies to provide offshore services as a form of “development” after centuries of extracting wealth[71]. Today, many of the world’s tax havens are former British colonies or dependencies​[72] and the UK’s network of havens is responsible for facilitating nearly 26 per cent of global tax revenue losses each year​. In essence, the UK helped create a global system that enables wealth to escape taxation – a legacy of colonial wealth protection that continues to benefit elites.

This legacy places Britain at the centre of a vast financial secrecy network or spider’s web. It enables multinational companies and wealthy individuals, including British elites, to shift profits and assets offshore while paying minimal tax. The UK and its so-called “second empire,” which includes tax havens such as Jersey, the British Virgin Islands and the Cayman Islands, together constitute the world’s greatest enabler of corporate tax abuse, responsible for round 23 per cent of global corporate tax underpayment[73]. This historical context is critical. It illustrates how the UK’s economic elite have long benefitted from asset protection structures, reducing political pressure on governments to introduce or expand wealth taxation.

Inequality up, wealth tax off the table

Despite this history, or perhaps because of it, the UK has never implemented a wealth tax. The closest attempt came in the 1970s, when a Labour government pledged to tax the net wealth of the rich. The effort quickly faltered under intense pushback from wealthy individuals and the establishment. The proposal was abandoned amid claims that the rich would find ways to avoid it and that it would not raise much revenue. Since then, no British government has introduced an annual tax on overall net wealth. The UK therefore stands out among major economies, particularly in Europe, for its refusal to directly tax large fortunes. While some wealth taxes in Europe have been repealed under pressure, many countries previously had them in place. Some, such as Spain, have reintroduced wealth taxes in recent years.

Britain, however, has never enacted one at all. As pointed out by the UK Wealth Tax Commission, while the UK has several ways of taxing wealthy people on a recurring basis, these existing taxes are seriously defective, making them inefficient, inequitable and too easy to avoid. Since long, the Commission suggests to reform existing taxes on wealth and introduce a net wealth tax for the specific purpose of reducing inequality, which has steadily grown[74]. Over the past few decades, the richest have moved significantly ahead of the rest of society. Billionaires and multi-millionaires have multiplied in both number and net worth, while ordinary workers have faced stagnant wages and prolonged austerity. The Sunday Times Rich List recorded just 15 UK billionaires in 1990.  By 2023, that number had risen to 171, each holding an average of £4 billion​[75]. This explosion of private wealth has not been matched by corresponding increases in public revenue or redistribution efforts. Even as public finances have come under greater strain than ever before, for example after the 2008 financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and more recently due to rising defence spending, successive governments have ruled out a wealth tax. During the pandemic, when the fiscal cost of emergency measures exploded, the UK Wealth Tax Commission explicitly recommended a one-time wealth tax on millionaire households as “the fairest and most efficient” way to repair public finances[76]. The Conservative government ignored these calls and instead introduced further spending cuts and increased regressive indirect taxes. In effect, the UK has chosen not to draw on the vast concentration of private wealth for the public good, even when the need was clear and the policy tools were available.

Political and structural barriers to taxing wealth

The UK’s political establishment has deep ties to wealthy elites. The City of London has long exerted an outsized influence on policy, famously becoming “the dominant political force in Britain” since the 19th century​[77]. This influence has shaped a dominant policy paradigm that favours low taxation on capital and high net worth individuals in the name of competitiveness. Policymakers frequently invoke fears that a wealth tax would drive wealthy individuals and investors out of the UK. These narratives, while not evidence-based, are heavily promoted by the financial sector and elite lobbyists and echo the very dynamics that created the offshore system.

The UK’s (former) non-dom tax regime is a striking example of how the country has courted global wealth. It allowed resident wealthy foreigners and some UK nationals to avoid tax on overseas income, reinforcing London’s appeal as a tax haven for elites. Such policies entrench a powerful lobby opposed to progressive tax measures.

Importantly, many political decision-makers themselves are drawn from the upper echelons of wealth, making them more sympathetic to anti-wealth tax arguments. The finance industry and wealthy individuals fund research and campaigns to dissuade new taxes on wealth, framing them as “unworkable” or harmful to Britain’s economy. This lobbying was evident as far back as the 1970s, when the original wealth tax proposal was deemed untenable, and continues today behind the scenes. The result is a policy stalemate. Even as public opinion polls consistently show support for higher taxes on the rich, the idea is repeatedly dismissed in Westminster.

The UK’s structural role in global finance also plays a part. London is a hub for managing the assets of the global rich, including oligarchs and billionaires whose fortunes are often held in trust funds, luxury real estate and shell companies.  Taxing extreme wealth would mean confronting this lucrative status quo, including the financial interests of banks, law firms and accountancy firms, which serve as key enablers of tax abuse and secrecy. The UK government has consistently shown reluctance to impose reforms that might jeopardise the City’s competitiveness. For example, it has long resisted implementing transparent registers of beneficial ownership[78]. This combination of elite influence, a competitiveness-based ideology and deep entanglement with offshore finance has kept a wealth tax off the UK policy agenda.

Missing billions: wealth tax potential vs tax abuse losses

The fiscal costs of the UK’s policy choices are immense. By not taxing the wealth of the richest, the UK forgoes a significant source of revenue. These are funds that could support public services, defence spending and climate action. Various studies have demonstrated the magnitude of potential funds available. For example, the independent Wealth Tax Commission concluded that a one-off wealth tax on millionaire households (5 per cent on wealth above £1 million, payable over five years) could raise around £260 billion​[79]. Even a more modest levy limited to the ultra-rich would yield notable revenue. Research for the UK’s Trades Union Congress found that a one-off tax of 1.7 per cent on wealth above £3 million, and 3.5 per cent above £10 million, would deliver about £10 billion. Annual wealth taxes, for instance a progressive yearly tax on fortunes of the top 0.5% of the population could raise €32 billion annually in the UK[80]. These figures illustrate how much fiscal capacity remains untapped and how wealth taxes could slow down rising wealth inequality, create space for further progressive taxation and prioritise urgent public revenue raising.

At the same time, the UK loses huge sums of revenue through underpaid tax and legal loopholes that largely benefit the same wealthy corporations and individuals.  The UK, having orchestrated its role at the centre of the “spiderweb”, is consistently one of the world’s biggest losers of tax revenue to global tax abuse[81]. Multinational companies shifting profits out of Britain, along with individuals hiding assets offshore, cost the UK Treasury tens of billions of pounds each year. For example, British corporations can route profits through Luxembourg or one of UK’s own jurisdictions, such as Bermuda, to avoid domestic tax. Wealthy UK residents also use trusts in UK Crown Dependency and offshore financial centres like Jersey to reduce or conceal their tax liabilities. The UK’s leadership in the global tax abuse architecture undermines its own tax base and sovereignty. This creates a paradox in which it forfeits revenue both through commission, by enabling underpayment of tax, and omission, by choosing not to tax wealth directly.

Climate justice implications

The refusal to tax the wealthy has profound consequences not only for inequality and public services, but also for climate justice. Wealth and carbon emissions are closely intertwined. The richest individuals are by far the largest polluters. The wealthiest 1 per cent of people globally were responsible for an estimated 15 to16 per cent of worldwide emissions in 2019, a share roughly equal to the total emissions of the poorest two-thirds of humanity​[82]. In the UK and other high-income countries, millionaires and billionaires lead carbon-intensive lifestyles, including flying private jets, owning multiple mansions and yachts, and investing in high emitting industries. These patterns of consumption result in disproportionately large carbon footprints.

A wealth tax in the UK could help advance climate justice in at least two ways. First, even modestly slowing the concentration of extreme wealth could indirectly reduce the emissions of the superrich, particularly if the tax is designed to capture wealth tied to carbon intensive assets, such as polluting investment portfolios[83]. Second, and more importantly in the short term, a wealth tax would raise substantial revenue that could be directed towards transition plans and global climate finance. Climate breakdown requires financing for mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage, both within the UK and in support of vulnerable nations. Yet wealthy governments often claim that “resources are unavailable” for these needs. A UK wealth tax would be a way to mobilise new funds from those most able to pay – and if designed correctly, for example through exit taxes, it poses virtually no risk of capital flight. Just a fraction of the Wealth Tax Commission’s proposed wealth tax, with revenues up to £260 billion, could fund the UK’s entire contribution to the various international climate finance goals discussed in this report. Under the largest fund size of £2.6 trillion, the UK’s contribution would be £113 billion. A wealth tax would not only cover the contribution, but  also leave over £147 billion for domestic investments in renewable energy and home insulation.

By refusing to implement a wealth tax, the richest continue to pollute with impunity, while public funding for the green transition remains underfunded. This is especially glaring given the UK’s historical responsibility for emissions as the birthplace of the industrial revolution, and its current financial capability to contribute. While a wealth tax is not a silver bullet for climate finance, it is a powerful and complementary tool.

A tale of two tax sovereignties: UK vs Tanzania

The contrast between the United Kingdom and a country like Tanzania underscores the theme of tax sovereignty and a country’s sovereign ability to tax. In the Tanzanian case, a nation in the Global South is effectively denied full use of its sovereign tax powers by external factors and anachronisms, including colonial economic structures, unfair international tax rules and the practices of multinational companies that erode Tanzania’s tax base. Tanzania’s fiscal capacity to fund public services and climate adaptation is undermined by a system largely designed outside its control.

The United Kingdom presents a different scenario. The UK Government’s departments for the design of tax laws and for the collection of those taxes are among the world’s most advanced. The United Kingdom can make sovereign choices to exercise its power to tax, yet it chooses not to exercise this power when it comes to taxing the rich. Unlike Tanzania, any constraints on the UK’s power to tax extreme wealth are a reflection of political and economic capture by the interests of capital. For example, the potential for a new Labour government to introduce more progressive tax measures on the super-rich led to a huge wave of media coverage on the possibility of a ‘millionaire exodus’. While the statistical basis for such a claim was subsequently debunked, the government was understood to have been strongly swayed by the response[84]. Despite clearly having the legislative and administrative capacity to do so, Britain chooses not to levy a wealth tax, whether on an annual basis or as a one-off instance to finance extraordinary public measures, as some countries did during the COVID-19 pandemic. The contrast is striking: one country is unable to collect the revenue it desperately needs, while the other is failing to collect revenue that is readily available.

The cases of Tanzania and the UK illustrate a dynamic that undermines climate justice for all. When countries like Tanzania are blocked from exercising their taxing rights over multinationals and collecting the revenue they are owed for public budgets, they are increasingly forced to rely on international climate finance — funding that wealthier countries like the UK have consistently failed to deliver[85]. But this is not just a burden for the Global South. Strengthening the ability of lower-income countries to raise domestic revenue through fairer global tax rules would reduce their reliance on aid, external loans and the unsustainable debt these often generate. At the same time, it would ease pressure on richer countries to fill the climate finance gap by contributing their fair share through their own public budgets, rather than relying on voluntary pledges or private finance.

6. From diagnosis to design: policy implications and next steps

The following recommendations are designed to help create a just and sustainable climate finance system by reclaiming tax sovereignty as a means of addressing both the domestic climate crisis and the global climate finance gap. At the heart of these proposals is the UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation (UNFCTC), which offers a unique opportunity to rebalance global tax systems. By focusing on tax sovereignty and how countries make use of it, we can transform global tax governance to better fund climate transitions and strengthen domestic public finance budgets. The following recommendations are structured for international processes, civil society organisations (CSOs), and technical tax reforms.

Civil society organizations (CSOs) and the public: advocate for global tax justice and the UN tax convention

Civil society must elevate the importance of the UN tax convention within broader climate and tax justice movements. The UN tax convention represents a critical framework for reevaluating countries’ use of their national tax sovereignty and for resetting current choices that overly privilege multinational corporations and financial elites. It is these skewed uses of tax sovereignty that currently allow companies and financial elites to capture global tax rules. By supporting an inclusive and equitable UN tax convention, civil society organizations can help ensure that countries in the Global South regain the ability to tax polluting industries and wealth that has historically been hidden in secrecy jurisdictions and tax havens. This is not a technical exercise. It is a moral and political necessity for climate justice. A sensible use of tax sovereignty is central to public budgets. Countries need fiscal power to fund their own climate transitions. Civil society should push governments to support the UN tax convention and ensure that tax rules, especially those related to wealth, profit shifting and polluting industries, reduce inequality.

Civil society organizations from both the economic and climate justice spaces should advocate together for inclusive tax negotiations at the United Nations where countries in the Global South have an equal say, emphasising the sovereign right of nations to regulate taxes and ensure that the polluter pays and common but differentiated responsibilities principles can be operationalised in both domestic and international contexts. In addition to financial contributions, countries must take on their fair share of responsibility by agreeing to reform international tax rules to allow developing nations to raise the revenue they need for both climate finance and broader social goals, such as public services and poverty reduction.

It is critical to educate the publicabout the interdependence between tax sovereignty, climate finance and public budgets. In many high-income countries, tax abuse by wealthy individuals and corporations is central to the inability of governments to meet their climate finance pledges, and a key driver of austerity policies. By connecting the dots between tax justice and climate justice, civil society organisations can help shift public opinion to demand tax justice at home and fair climate contributions abroad. Campaigns should emphasise that tax justice is not only an issue for governments and corporations. It is a question of human rights and global responsibility, particularly in the context of the climate crisis.

Civil society organisations must lead public facing advocacy campaigns that showcase how multinational corporations and wealthy elites use tax abuse to undermine national revenue collection, especially in low-incomeand climate-vulnerable countries. Civil society organisations can leverage international media and investigative reporting to name and shame those who underpay tax that could otherwise fund climate mitigation and adaptation efforts in the Global South, especially when assets are concentrated in polluting sectors. This is not only a tax issue, but a climate justice issue, as uncollected taxes from the wealthiest entities make it harder for nations to finance their own transitions.

Concrete technical tax reforms: the UN tax convention as a structural solution

The UN tax convention offers structural reforms that are vital for both restoring tax sovereignty and establishing the conditions to raise fair and sustainable climate finance. Below, we offer some key reforms that the UN tax convention could introduce to overhaul global tax governance and address the climate finance crisis:

The UN tax convention has the potential to re-establish the policy space for fully progressive taxation of income, profits and wealth, to the benefit of all people. The negotiations provide an unprecedented opportunity to strengthen the tax sovereignty of all countries, through effective and globally inclusive cooperation. The convention can deliver agreement to eliminate the financial secrecy that underpins cross-border tax abuse and all other illicit financial flows, as well as setting the basis for tax rules that end the inequalities in the distribution of taxing rights faced by countries in the global south. The transparency required should include a global asset registry to share data on the ultimate beneficial ownership of companies, partnerships and other vehicles, alongside the automatic exchange of information about financial accounts. These measures would restore every country’s sovereignty to pursue nationally chosen wealth taxes and make them fully effective.  

The convention should explicitly link tax reforms to the global agenda on loss and damage. Better tax rules could reallocate resources from high income countries to more vulnerable nations facing the worst climate impacts. The convention could provide the framework for countries to contribute to climate finance through progressive taxes on multinational profits, wealth and carbon intensive industries, with the explicit goal of financing loss and damage in a more sustainable and predictable way. Such an approach would embed the polluter pays and common but differentiated responsibilities principles at the global level.

The UN tax convention offers an opportunity to reform the way in which countries allocate among themselves the right to tax profits from cross-border business activities. At present, many bilateral tax treaties disproportionately benefit wealthy countries and multinational corporations, often at the expense of lower-income countries. These treaties frequently prevent states from taxing foreign multinationals doing business in their territories, cutting off a potential source of revenue for climate finance. Under the UN tax convention, bilateral tax treaties’ skewed allocation rules could be replaced by a multilateral agreement on the fair allocation of taxing rights that better reflects source countries’ sovereign right to tax profits from local activities. A similar multinational framework could establish rules to ensure that countries can tax wealthy individuals operating within their borders, particularly those linked to carbon intensive sectors.

The UN tax convention could offer a solution to the race to the bottom in tax competition, particularly in relation to secrecy jurisdictions and offshore finance. Because capital and income are highly mobile, these jurisdictions’ decision to offer secrecy and encourage tax abuse has a beggar thy neighbour effect, making it harder for other countries to use their sovereign power to tax income and capital. By implementing a more comprehensive global minimum tax rate and robust transparency standards, the convention could curb the ability of countries to act as tax havens for multinational corporations, which are currently major enablers of illicit financial flows. These jurisdictions deprive lower income countries of billions in lost source revenue, worsening global inequality and accelerating the climate crisis. By setting international norms, the UN tax convention could help prevent countries from undermining the fiscal autonomy of others through predatory tax practices.

One of the most critical features of the UN tax convention could be the establishment of a multilateral dispute resolution mechanism that deals with conflicts between countries or between countries and taxpayers regarding a country’s exercise of its tax sovereignty. Such a mechanism would replace and prevent the Investor-State Dispute Settlement in investment agreements from blocking progressive tax reforms. ISDS has been used by multinational corporations to sue governments for changing tax laws, undermining sovereignty and stalling necessary climate legislation. The UN tax convention could introduce binding multilateral rules that would render ISDS provisions obsolete, allowing countries to prioritise tax sovereignty and climate policies without fear of costly legal challenges from corporations. A new mechanism would settle disputes holistically, taking into account sustainable development in a balanced and integrated way across economic, social and environmental dimensions.[86]


[1] ‘Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2023’, CPI <https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/global-landscape-of-climate-finance-2023/> [accessed 27 February 2025].

[2] Franziska Mager and Sergio Chaparro, Delivering Climate Justice Using the Principles of Tax Justice: A Guide for Climate Justice Advocates <https://taxjustice.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Policy-brief-climate-justice_2206.pdf>.

[3] The State of Tax Justice 2024 <https://taxjustice.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/State-of-Tax-Justice-2024-English-Tax-Justice-Network.pdf> [accessed 12 February 2025].

[4] The Christian Aid Poverty Report: Reimagining Paths to Human Flourishing <https://www.christianaid.org.uk/sites/default/files/2022-08/the-christian-aid-poverty-report.pdf> [accessed 6 June 2025].

[5] Franziska Mager, Markus Meinzer and Lucas Millán, ‘How Corporate Tax Incentives Undermine Climate Justice’.

[6] Alex Cobham and Franziska Mager, Seven Principles of Good Taxation for Climate Finance <https://taxjustice.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/Principles-of-good-taxation-for-climate-finance-December-2024-Tax-Justice-Network.pdf> [accessed 28 December 2024].

[7] Hans Peter Dejgaard and others, Climate Finance Shadow Report 2023: Assessing the Delivery of the $100 Billion Commitment (5 June 2023) <https://policy-practice.oxfam.org/resources/climate-finance-shadow-report-2023-621500/> [accessed 19 June 2023].

[8]

‘Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2023’.

[9] ‘A New Climate Finance Goal Is on the Horizon. How Can Developing Countries Benefit? | UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)’, 2024 <https://unctad.org/news/new-climate-finance-goal-horizon-how-can-developing-countries-benefit> [accessed 27 February 2025].

[10] ‘Public Investment Required to Achieve Climate Neutrality in Germany’.

[11] International Energy Agency, An Energy Sector Roadmap to Net Zero Emissions in Indonesia (2022) <https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/an-energy-sector-roadmap-to-net-zero-emissions-in-indonesia_4a9e9439-en.html> [accessed 21 February 2025].

[12] ‘Climate Change Committee: Reducing Emissions 87% by 2040 Would Help “Cut Household Costs by £1,400”’, Carbon Brief, 2025 <https://www.carbonbrief.org/ccc-reducing-emissions-87-by-2040-would-help-cut-household-costs-by-1400/> [accessed 6 June 2025].

[13] Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2024: Insights for COP29 <https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Global-Landscape-of-Climate-Finance-2024.pdf> [accessed 7 June 2025].

[14] Mira Alestig and others, ‘Carbon Inequality Kills: Why Curbing the Excessive Emissions of an Elite Few Can Create a Sustainable Planet for All’.

[15] Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez and Stefanie Stantcheva, ‘Optimal Taxation of Top Labor Incomes: A Tale of Three Elasticities – American Economic Association’, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 6/1 (2014) <https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.6.1.230> [accessed 7 June 2025].

[16] Joanna Cabello, Ilona Hartlieb and De Ploeg, ‘A Brief History of Colonialism, Climate Change and Carbon Markets’, SOMO, 2024 <https://www.somo.nl/history-colonialism-climate-change-carbon-markets/> [accessed 6 June 2025].

[17] Beyond Extractivism: Towards a Feminst and Just Economic Transtion in Morocco and Egypt <https://www.greenpeace.org/static/planet4-mena-stateless/2025/02/ce97182f-beyond-extractivism_-towards-a-feminist-and-just-economic-transition-in-morocco-and-egypt-report-eng.pdf> [accessed 20 February 2025].

[18] Mager and Chaparro, Delivering Climate Justice Using the Principles of Tax Justice: A Guide for Climate Justice Advocates.

[19] Katarina Ruhland, ‘Explainer: What Is the Polluter Pays Principle?’, Earth.Org, 2024 <https://earth.org/explainer-what-is-the-polluter-pays-principle-and-how-can-it-be-used-in-climate-policy/> [accessed 14 May 2024].

[20] Mager, Meinzer and Millán, ‘How Corporate Tax Incentives Undermine Climate Justice’.

[21] Alison Schultz and Franziska Mager, How ‘greenlaundering’ Conceals the Full Scale of Fossil Fuel Financing <https://taxjustice.net/reports/climate-betrayal-how-greenlaundering-conceals-the-full-scale-of-fossil-fuel-financing/> [accessed 28 December 2024].

[22] Alex Cobham, The International Tax Consequences Od President Trump <https://taxjustice.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/The-international-tax-consequences-of-Pres-Trump-Tax-Justice-Network-Feb-2025.pdf> [accessed 16 April 2025].

[23] Alison Schultz and Miroslav Palanský, ‘Taxing Extreme Wealth: What Countries around the World Could Gain from Progressive Wealth Taxes’, #2024-02, 2024 <https://osf.io/pux5e/> [accessed 19 April 2025].

[24] Miroslav Palanský and Alison Schultz, Formulary Apportionment in BEFIT: A Path to Fair Corporate Taxation <https://taxjustice.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Formulary_apportionment_in_BEFIT-Tax-Justice-Network-2024.pdf> [accessed 8 June 2025].

[25] Alex Cobham and Petr Janský, Global Distribution of Revenue Loss from Tax Avoidance: Re-Estimation and Country Results <https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/global-distribution-revenue-loss-tax-avoidance> [accessed 11 June 2025].

[26] The State of Tax Justice 2024.

[27] Schultz and Palanský, ‘TJN WP 2024-02’.

[28] Alex Cobham, The Uncounted <https://politybooks.com/bookdetail?book_slug=the-uncounted–9781509536016> [accessed 22 May 2025].

[29] In some cases, estimates exclude potential revenues from a wealth tax due to missing data, which can underestimate a country’s fiscal potential and lead to misclassification. These should therefore be interpreted as lower-bound estimates. For more detailed information, see the accompanying Methodology Note.

[30] ‘What Do We Know and What Should We Do About Tax Justice?’, SAGE Publications Ltd, 2025 <https://uk.sagepub.com/en-gb/eur/what-do-we-know-and-what-should-we-do-about-tax-justice/book286416> [accessed 20 April 2025].

[31] Abel Gwaindepi, ‘Taxation in Africa since Colonial Times’.

[32] Gerald M. Easter, ‘Capacity, Consent and Tax Collection in Post-Communist States’, in Taxation and State-Building in Developing Countries: Capacity and Consent, ed. by Deborah Brautigam, Mick Moore, and Odd-Helge Fjeldstad (Cambridge, 2008), 64–88 <https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/taxation-and-statebuilding-in-developing-countries/capacity-consent-and-tax-collection-in-postcommunist-states/9A667B72EACC110993502B1822D0B825> [accessed 21 April 2025].

[33]

‘A Tax Justice Lens on Palestine’, Tax Justice Network, 2025 <https://taxjustice.net/2025/04/09/a-tax-justice-lens-on-palestine/> [accessed 20 April 2025].

[34] The State of Tax Justice 2024.

[35] John Christensen, ‘The Looting Continues: Tax Havens and Corruption’, Critical Perspectives on International Business, Critical perspectives on international business. – Emerald Group Publishing Limited, ISSN 1758-6062, ZDB-ID 2188056-6. – Vol. 7.2011, 2, p. 177-196, 7/2 (2011).

[36] ‘African CSOs Rally Support for the Africa Group as UN Tax Convention Negotiations Gather Pace’, Tax Justice Network Africa (TJNA), 2024 <https://taxjusticeafrica.net/resources/news/african-csos-rally-support-africa-group-un-tax-convention-negotiations-gather-pace> [accessed 20 April 2025].

[37] The State of Tax Justice 2024.

[38] Joanna Partridge and Jasper Jolly, ‘Shell Paid Zero Windfall Tax in UK despite Record Global Profits’, The Guardian, 27 October 2022, section Business <https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/oct/27/shell-doubles-its-profits-to-95bn> [accessed 21 April 2025].

[39] Dan Smith, Offshore Shell Games: The Use of Offshore Tax Havens by the Top 100 Publicly Traded Companies (July 2013) <https://publicinterestnetwork.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Offshore_Shell_Games_USPIRG.pdf> [accessed 21 April 2025].

[40] ‘The Global Tax Rate Is Now a Tax Haven Rewards Programme, and Switzerland Wants in First’, Tax Justice Network, 2023 <https://taxjustice.net/2023/04/06/the-global-tax-rate-is-now-a-tax-haven-rewards-programme-and-switzerland-wants-in-first/> [accessed 3 June 2024].

[41] ‘Financial Secrecy Index – Tax Justice Network’ <https://fsi.taxjustice.net/> [accessed 21 April 2025].

[42] Joe Lo, ‘British Company Forces Italy to Pay €190m for Offshore Oil Ban’, Climate Home News, 2022 <https://www.climatechangenews.com/2022/08/24/british-company-forces-italy-to-pay-e190m-for-offshore-oil-ban/> [accessed 21 April 2025].

[43] ‘Case Studies: Investor-State Attacks on Public Interest Policies’, 2015 <https://www.citizen.org/wp-content/uploads/egregious-investor-state-attacks-case-studies_4.pdf> [accessed 21 April 2025].

[44] Mistreated: The Tax Treaties That Are Depriving the World’s Poorest Countries of Vital Revenue (February 2016) <https://actionaid.org/sites/default/files/actionaid_-_mistreated_tax_treaties_report_-_feb_2016.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com> [accessed 21 April 2025].

[45] See, for example, the case of Mongolia after its termination of the tax treaty with the Netherlands in 2013 where foreign investors in a local copper mine continued claiming tax benefits in the terminated treaty based on stabilisation agreements.

[46] ‘Building Capacity to Prevent Profit Shifting by Large Companies in Zambia’.

[47] TREATY-BASED INVESTOR–STATE DISPUTE SETTLEMENT CASES AND CLIMATE ACTION (2022).

[48] ‘Klesch v Germany Arbitral Decision of 23/07/2024 Ordering Germany to Refrain from Collecting the Windfall Tax Set by EU Law’ <https://baldon-avocats.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Klesch-v-Germany_TCE_2024.pdf> [accessed 8 May 2025].

[49] Howard Mann and Alexandra Readhead, Evolving Standards on Stabilization: A Practical Guide to the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development’s Guiding Principles on Durable Extractive Contracts, Principles VII and VIII <https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2025-03/evolving-stabilization-standards-mining.pdf>.

[50] Trade-Related Illicit Financial Flows in 135 Developing Countries: 2008-2017 (March 2020) <https://edicon.consejo.org.ar/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/155.-GFI_Illicit-Flows-135-Developing-Countries.2020.pdf> [accessed 21 April 2025].

[51] Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman, ‘Wealth Taxation: Lessons from History and Recent Developments’, AEA Papers and Proceedings, 112 (2022), 58–62.

[52] Alestig and others, ‘Carbon Inequality Kills: Why Curbing the Excessive Emissions of an Elite Few Can Create a Sustainable Planet for All’.

[53] Tax Justice Network, The Millionaire Exodus Myth <https://taxjustice.net/reports/the-millionaire-exodus-myth/> [accessed 11 June 2025].

[54] Mager, Meinzer and Millán, ‘How Corporate Tax Incentives Undermine Climate Justice’.

[55] Rigged Reform (April 2017) <https://s3.amazonaws.com/oxfam-us/www/static/media/files/Rigged_Reform_FINAL.pdf> [accessed 21 April 2025].

[56] Schultz and Mager, How ‘greenlaundering’ Conceals the Full Scale of Fossil Fuel Financing.

[57] TAXING MULTINATIONALS: THE BEPS PROPOSALS AND ALTERNATIVES, 6 July 2023 <https://www.southcentre.int/sc-contribution-taxing-multinationals-the-beps-proposals-and-alternatives-6-july-2023/> [accessed 21 April 2025].

[58] ICRICT Evaluation of the OECD/G2O Two-Pillar Solution (28 September 2024) <https://www.icrict.com/international-tax-reform/icrict-evaluation-of-the-oecd-g2o-two-pillar-solution-2/> [accessed 21 April 2025].

[59] Mager, Meinzer and Millán, ‘How Corporate Tax Incentives Undermine Climate Justice’.

[60] ‘Tanzania and Barrick Gold Reach Final Operating Agreement’, CGTN Africa, 15 June 2023 <https://africa.cgtn.com/tanzania-and-barrick-gold-reach-final-operating-agreement/> [accessed 22 April 2025].

[61] John Benny, ‘Barrick Details Proposal to Settle Acacia Dispute with Tanzania’, Reuters, 20 February 2019, section Business <https://www.reuters.com/article/business/barrick-details-proposal-to-settle-acacia-dispute-with-tanzania-idUSKCN1Q91G8/> [accessed 22 April 2025].

[62] ‘Acacia Seeks Stay of International Arbitration against Tanzania | Reuters’ <https://www.reuters.com/article/world/acacia-seeks-stay-of-international-arbitration-against-tanzania-idUSKCN1UC0QN/> [accessed 22 April 2025].

[63] ‘Outlawed Foreign Foras: The Conundrum over Tanzania’s International Investor Disputes Resolution System – Africa Construction Law’ <https://africaconstructionlaw.org/outlawed-foreign-foras-the-conundrum-over-tanzanias-international-investor-disputes-resolution-system/> [accessed 22 April 2025].

[64] ‘Tanzania and Barrick Gold Reach Final Operating Agreement’.

[65] Report of the High Level Panel on Illicit Financial Flows from Africa <https://au.int/sites/default/files/documents/40545-doc-IFFs_REPORT.pdf> [accessed 21 April 2025].

[66] ‘Tanzania and Barrick Gold Reach Final Operating Agreement’.

[67] Thomas Scurfield, Equitable Sharing of Mining Profits: The Best Deal for Tanzania? (September 2023).

[68] Bob Michel and Franziska Mager, ‘Breaking the Silos of Tax and Climate: Climate Tax Policy under the UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation.’, Tax Justice Network, 2024 <https://taxjustice.net/2024/12/09/-climate-and-tax-talks-has-sunk-both-but-the-un-tax-convention-offers-a-lifeline/> [accessed 27 February 2025].

[69] ‘Tax Justice Network Letter to King Charles III – Full Text’, Tax Justice Network, 2023 <https://taxjustice.net/2023/04/30/tax-justice-network-letter-to-king-charles-iii-full-text/> [accessed 22 April 2025].

[70] Nick Shaxson, ‘What Does Brexit Mean for Tax Havens and the City of London?’, Tax Justice Network, 2021 <https://taxjustice.net/2021/07/02/what-does-brexit-mean-for-tax-havens-and-the-city-of-london/> [accessed 22 April 2025].

[71] Matthew Wills, ‘Islands in the Cash Stream’, JSTOR Daily, 23 June 2024 <https://daily.jstor.org/islands-in-the-cash-stream/> [accessed 22 April 2025].

[72] Corporate Tax Haven Index 2021 Methodology <https://cthi.taxjustice.net/cthi2021/methodology.pdf> [accessed 11 June 2024].

[73] ‘Tax Havens Could Cost Countries $4.7 Trillion over the next Decade, Advocacy Group Warns’, 2023 <https://www.icij.org/investigations/paradise-papers/tax-havens-could-cost-countries-4-7-trillion-over-the-next-decade-advocacy-group-warns/> [accessed 22 April 2025].

[74] Arun Advani, Emma Chamberlain and Andy Summers, A Wealth Tax for the UK <https://www.wealthandpolicy.com/wp/WealthTaxFinalReport.pdf>.

[75] Rupert Neate and Rupert Neate Wealth correspondent, ‘“Modest” Wealth Tax Could Raise More than £10bn for Public Services, Says TUC’, The Guardian, 11 August 2023, section Politics <https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/aug/11/modest-wealth-tax-could-raise-more-than-10bn-for-public-services-says-tuc> [accessed 22 April 2025].

[76] Advani, Chamberlain and Summers, A Wealth Tax for the UK.

[77] Shaxson, ‘What Does Brexit Mean for Tax Havens and the City of London?’

[78] Knobel, Privacy Washing & Beneficial Ownership Transparency: Dismantling the Weaponisation of Privacy against Beneficial Ownership Transparency <https://taxjustice.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Privacy-Washing-and-Beneficial-Ownership-Transparency-Tax-Justice-Network-March-2024.pdf> [accessed 22 May 2025].

[79] Advani, Chamberlain and Summers, A Wealth Tax for the UK.

[80] Schultz and Palanský, ‘TJN WP 2024-02’.

[81] The State of Tax Justice 2021 <https://taxjustice.net/reports/the-state-of-tax-justice-2021/> [accessed 19 June 2023]; Tax Justice Network, State of Tax Justice 2022 <https://taxjustice.net/reports/state-of-tax-justice-2022/> [accessed 19 June 2023]; The State of Tax Justice 2023 <https://taxjustice.net/wp-content/uploads/SOTJ/SOTJ23/English/State%20of%20Tax%20Justice%202023%20-%20Tax%20Justice%20Network%20-%20English.pdf> [accessed 11 June 2024]; The State of Tax Justice 2024.

[82] Alestig and others, ‘Carbon Inequality Kills: Why Curbing the Excessive Emissions of an Elite Few Can Create a Sustainable Planet for All’.

[83] Jose Pedro Bastos Neves and Willi Semmler, ‘A Proposal for a Carbon Wealth Tax: Modelling, Empirics, and Policy’, 2022 <https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=4114243> [accessed 19 June 2023].

[84] Tax Justice Network, 2025, The millionaire exodus myth, https://taxjustice.net/reports/the-millionaire-exodus-myth/.

[85] Dejgaard and others, Climate Finance Shadow Report 2023.

[86] Such an approach is in line with principle (d) of the UNFCITC Terms of Reference, see: https://financing.desa.un.org/sites/default/files/2025-01/n2501014_E.pdf.

The “millionaire exodus” visualised

Can you solve it?🧠

There are 58,000,000 millionaires in the world.

128,000 of them moved to another country in 2024, the news claimed based on a report published by Henley & Partners.

Is this a “millionaire exodus”? 🤔

The answer is no. The millionaires that supposedly relocated in 2024 represented just 0.2% of all millionaires.

But that didn’t stop news outlets around the world from reporting on a non-existent exodus, so we’ve visualised the problem below in case the helps clarify things further.

For more information, read our report debunking the millionaire exodus myth.

The Financial Secrecy Index, a cherished tool for policy research across the globe

The Financial Secrecy Index is used by banks to fight money laundering, by academics to investigate the English Premier League, and by leading institutes to enrich their renowned databases.

As a comprehensive and reliable source of information on jurisdictions’ contributions to financial secrecy, researchers and institutions around the world rely on the Financial Secrecy Index and incorporate its results into their work, showcasing the index’s ability to contribute to a wider understanding of the various aspects of financial secrecy and its broader impact on society.

While in the last decade, there have been so many interesting examples of the use of the index (see a non-exhaustive list here), in this blog we focus only on a few recent examples of fascinating work by various researchers and institutions, hoping to provide you with a flavour of what the index has to offer.

What is the Financial Secrecy Index?

The Financial Secrecy Index is a ranking of countries most complicit in helping individuals to hide their finances from the rule of law. The index evaluates how much wiggle room for financial secrecy a country’s laws and regulations provide – this is the country’s ‘Secrecy Score’. The index also monitors how much in financial services the country provides to other countries’ residents – this is the country’s ‘Global Scale Weight’.

These two factors are then combined to determine how big of a role the country plays in enabling financial secrecy globally – this is the country’s ‘FSI value’ and is what the country is ranked on.

How academics are using the index to make fascinating findings

The Financial Secrecy Index’ evidence-based country analyses provide valuable insights in individual countries’ contribution to global financial secrecy risk or in their country’s exposure to such risk generated by other countries.

Researchers have used the index to identify the ways in which financial secrecy via offshore jurisdictions has managed to insert itself into everyday life or has influenced history, and have used the index as a tool to help assess other transparency measures.

Here are some fascinating, recent examples of ‘applied Financial Secrecy Index research’:

The financial secrecy of immovable property investors in Liverpool.

A study by Rex, Atkinson and Ignianni (2024) examines the offshore investment strategies in immovable property located in and around the city of Liverpool. Historically, the area was deprived but in recent decades, tremendous economic progress was created through state-sponsored city rejuvenation. This also created conditions in which immovable property can be rented out at higher rates or ‘flipped’ with higher gains than elsewhere in England. Unavoidably, this has triggered tremendous inflow of offshore money into the area. The authors use public data to identify properties owned by foreign legal entities. At a postcode level, they map the offshore investment strategies used by the property owners.

Strategies are distinguished in function of a number of factors, including the use of legal entities in jurisdictions with a high secrecy score in the 2022 Financial Secrecy Index.

According to the authors, the key message of their work is that all offshore ownership strategies identified are used to avoid or evade taxes, while generating social harm by increasing wealth inequality and weakening local purchasing power.

Financial secrecy on the football pitch.

In a recent study by Duncan and Lord (2024), the offshore ownership structures of the 20 English Premier League (EPL) football clubs are analysed. The Premier League is one of the wealthiest and most profitable sports leagues in the world and this, too, has attracted enormous financial flows from abroad.

The authors start with clubs’ legal ownership data registered with the Premier League and use the ORBIS database to map international ownership structures of the owning entity. For each club, they determine the share of ownership for which the beneficial owner cannot be identified and the number and jurisdictional location of entities and in the ownership chain. The jurisdictions involved are then checked against their secrecy score on the Financial Secrecy Index 2022.

The authors reveal that 14 out of 20 clubs in the Premier League have offshore ownership structures that involve between 1 and 9 foreign entities, nearly all of which are located in high Secrecy Score jurisdictions. The authors conclude that the unnecessarily complex and opaque ownership structures of English football clubs permit the misuse of clubs for the channelling of illicit finances.

Financial secrecy as a colonial legacy in the Caribbean.

Hakelberg, Ahrens and Crasnic (2024) study the phenomenon of financial secrecy in the Caribbean archipelago. They explain why certain Caribbean jurisdictions have higher FSI values and rank higher in the Financial Secrecy Index 2022 based on their colonial history.

The authors conclude that jurisdictions’ current financial secrecy havenry ultimately resulted from their agricultural suitability. British colonisers created agricultural plantation economies on islands with good soils and maritime trading economies on islands with bad soils. Plantation economies were believed to provide enough revenue potential for the imposition of income taxes by the colonial administration. Maritime economies did not, and hence, colonial officials did not bother to introduce income taxes.

In later times, the large groups of racialised labourers descending from enslaved Africans in plantation economies were able to achieve the introduction of responsible government earlier than in maritime economies. The maritime economies combined white supremacy with no income taxes and provided an attractive and stable destination for asset holders fleeing newly independent states. As a result, the financial sectors of maritime economies grew faster than those of planation economies and in order to continue attracting asset holders, their governments also created regulatory frameworks that are more prone to financial secrecy.

Financial secrecy curtailed by public country by country reporting.

Eberhartinger, Speitmann and Sureth-Sloane (2024) set out to test whether the public country by country reporting (CbCR) rules imposed on European banks have reduced their use of tax and regulatory havens. Tax and regulatory havens are defined as countries that figure in Hines’ (2022) list of 52 tax havens and which have a higher than median secrecy score in the Financial Secrecy Index 2022.

The authors find that public country by country reporting has caused a significant decline of up to 33% of subsidiaries in tax and regulatory havens since public country by country reporting became mandatory for European banks. The authors emphasise their results reveal that public country by country reporting leads to real effects, namely withdrawals from low-tax locations, and that banks do respond to additional disclosure requirements, which is an important insight for policy debates regarding transparency measures.

Other researchers are relying on the Financial Secrecy Index to deepen the understanding of their countries’ legal framework and performance in the field of financial transparency. Here are some recent examples.

Refangga, Arifin and Saleh (2024) rely on Indonesia’s country analysis in the Financial Secrecy Index to undertake a benchmarking study of their country’s regulations fighting tax abuse, money laundering and other financial crimes. Dluhopolskyi , Ivashuk  and Myronenko (2024) do the same for Ukraine in the context of the countries’ potential future rapprochement to the EU and other international organisations. They provide a time-series overview of Ukraine’s secrecy score in the Financial Secrecy Index and of the country’s position in other international databases and indices to find that Ukraine’s performance in anti-corruption is improving year after year. Meirelles Monteiro (2024) analyses the situation of Portugal in light of the country’s ranking in the index, exploring Portugal’s underperformance on a number of indicators like ‘transparency of company accounts’ and ‘country-by-country reporting’.

How leading indices and databases use the index

Given the Financial Secrecy Index’ status as a reliable and comprehensive data collection on countries’ contribution to global financial secrecy, other institutions have not shied away from incorporating its evaluations or underlying data into their own indices or databases.

They do so either by incorporating a selection of the index’s indicators or by using countries’ ‘FSI Value’ in a component on financial secrecy in their own composite index.

Here are four recent examples of use of the Financial Secrecy Index in third party indices and databases:

How banks, businesses and investors are using the index for anti-money laundering and sustainability

In a global economy rife with financial secrecy and illicit flows, credible data is a frontline defence. The Tax Justice Network’s Data Portal provides direct access to the Financial Secrecy Index’s underly data — a vital resource for institutions committed to integrity, transparency, and regulatory compliance. The Data Portal is a one-stop-shop for data on countries’ regulations on tax and financial transparency consolidating data from the Tax Justice Network’s own research (predominantly, from the Financial Secrecy Index and Corporate Tax Haven Index, State of Tax Justice and the Policy Tracker) facilitating access to core indicators that assess systemic vulnerability to financial secrecy and tax abuse. It also includes data from international bodies, expert sources, and estimates from academic papers.

The data is free for non-commercial use, but commercial applications require licensing — a step already taken by major players across banking, fintech, sustainable investment, and compliance technology. Based on feedback from current licensees, we know the Tax Justice Network data is being used for the following purposes.

For anti-money laundering and compliance professionals, index data delivers essential insights. It enables country risk classification, strengthens Know You Customer (KYC) and Enhanced Due Diligence (EDD) procedures, and feeds directly into Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) risk models. Institutions also rely on it for tax evasion risk flagging, and for creating automated geographic risk scoring systems.

Usage among major financial actors is well established. At least eight of the world’s 100 largest banks, including 3 in the top 20, have a license to use Financial Secrecy Index data for compliance monitoring, internal risk scoring, and regulatory reporting. Global credit rating agencies, payment processors, and consulting firms use it to assess jurisdictional AML/CFT exposure. Leading ethical banks and internet banking platforms also leverage it to evaluate country and customer-level risk.

In the sustainable business sector, the Financial Secrecy Index supports supply chain risk management and due diligence. Companies use the data to build country profiles and evaluate supplier and business partner risks.

On the investment side, the Financial Secrecy Index supports Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) screening by helping fund managers exclude companies domiciled in or exposed to high-secrecy jurisdictions. Its insights are integrated into sovereign ESG ratings, governance indicators, and risk-based exclusion criteria, ensuring investors meet both regulatory standards and ethical mandates.

The Financial Secrecy Index s also embedded in risk technology platforms, feeding into Software as a Service (SaaS) tools for compliance automation, jurisdictional risk dashboards, and client due diligence systems. A recently published working paper discusses potential applications and models with the Financial Secrecy Index data in the context of the criminological and computer science literature. In short, the data has become instrumental to how risk-aware institutions operate.

In an era of global regulatory fragmentation and pervasive financial opacity, the Financial Secrecy Index provides a vital edge. It equips anti-money laundering experts, sustainable businesses, and financial institutions with the intelligence needed to expose hidden risks and build systems that don’t just comply—but push for change.

Conclusion

As global standards on transparency struggle to keep pace with financial innovation and secrecy, the Financial Secrecy Index stands out as a critical countermeasure. It offers not only a rigorous and independent assessment of jurisdictions’ contributions to global financial secrecy, but also a growing ecosystem of applications—from public-interest research and policy monitoring to the risk frameworks of financial institutions, sustainability actors, and regulators.

Beginning in 2025, the Financial Secrecy Index transitioned to a rolling update system, allowing for continuous responsiveness to regulatory changes. This dynamic cycle—more agile than many Financial Action Task Force (FATF) evaluations—ensures that reforms flagged in annual government consultations are verified, integrated, and made available within months, not years. The result is a risk assessment tool that is consistent, transparent, and responsive—essential qualities for institutions navigating volatile regulatory environments and evolving compliance obligations.

Financial Secrecy Index data is available free of charge for non-commercial public use, supporting the vital work of civil society, investigative journalism and open academic research. At the same time, licensed access for commercial users strengthens the long-term sustainability of the index, while contributing to the production of high quality, comparative legal and regulatory data for the public good. Harnessing detail and nuance, the Financial Secrecy Index contributes to a global infrastructure for accountability.

When AI runs a company, who is the beneficial owner?

Beneficial ownership is considered a crucial transparency tool used to tackle illicit financial flows such as underpaying tax, corruption, money laundering and other financial crimes. According to the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) definition, it involves identifying the natural person who ultimately owns or controls a company, either by having a controlling ownership or control via other means. 

With artificial intelligence (AI) advancing rapidly, it is likely being used to help register new companies and make decisions within them. However, we may not be far from a point where AI can set up and control companies entirely on its own, without any human involvement.  This raises serious questions about how to identify the beneficial owner of such AI-controlled companies.

There are different situations that we can envision in the use of AI to set up and control companies: 

  1. Human control and human registration, but using AI to create fake identities. An individual may be using AI to create a fake identity with false documents to register a company. The individual still controls the company. This case is not very different from using nominees. The question is whether commercial registries or obliged entities will be able to detect a nominee whose identity is entirely fake. 
  1. Human control and AI automating the registration of companies. This case is very similar to the one above, but here AI is used to design every aspect of the companies being registered. This includes their name, country of registration, and potentially automating the full company creation process, while a human remains in control. This case would be similar to an individual creating many shelf companies to be sold in the future. This is problematic and should be regulated or prevented in the same way as shelf companies, but it does not create a completely new type of risk. 
  1. Human registration but AI control. A person, whether a natural person or legal entity, sets up a company but allows only AI to control it. 
  1. AI registration and control of companies. AI sets up and controls the company directly, with no human involvement.  

Regarding the registration of companies by AI (cases two and four), in countries where online company registration is available, such as the United Kingdom, it may be up to each country to decide whether AI should be allowed to create companies or whether only persons, either individuals or legal entities such as companies, are permitted to do so. If only persons are allowed, commercial registries would need to design checks similar to those used by websites to confirm that a user is human and not an AI system. For example, they could require users to pass a reCAPTCHA check.  At some point, however, it is possible that AI will be able to solve these tests as well. 

Although the registration of companies by AI may seem problematic because no human is involved in the ownership or control structure, this is not entirely different from circular ownership structures, a type of complex ownership structure where Company A owns Company B and vice versa. This has been very easy to do for years. For example, John could set up Company A, which then sets up and owns Company B. John would then transfer his shares in Company A to Company B. In this case, while it may appear that there is no beneficial owner because no human appears in the ownership chain, it is likely that John still controls both companies. He manages their bank accounts, signs contracts on their behalf, and makes key decisions. Determining the beneficial owner would then be a matter of identifying John as the person ultimately in control.  

The emerging challenge of AI-controlled companies  

The real challenge to beneficial ownership may arise when AI, such as generative AI, is truly controlling a company. We are not referring here to a situation where a human automates or designs a smart contract that acts automatically based on prior instructions. For example, a smart contract might say, buy gold whenever the price is below a certain amount, and sell it whenever the price goes above another amount. In that case, the human could still be considered the beneficial owner who controls the company and its decisions, much like a settlor who gives instructions for how a trust should function. 

The scenario we are referring to is based on the definition of AI by expert Lothar Determann: “computer systems that generate text, images, solutions to problems, and other output, functioning with substantial autonomy and in ways that their developers cannot always predict, explain, or control with certainty.” This definition distinguishes AI from deterministic systems such as a calculator. When a company is genuinely controlled by AI, and decisions are made independently with “substantial autonomy” in ways that even the developers cannot predict, explain or control, it becomes difficult to identify a human beneficial owner with control. The founder of the company, especially someone with no technical background who simply paid for the AI’s services, could not reasonably be considered the beneficial owner based on control, since they would have no actual influence over the company’s decisions. The law may find a shortcut and consider that just because the founder has “ownership,” even without control, they should still be regarded as the beneficial owner. In that case, they would need to be registered as such and could be subject to liability and other consequences.  

However, we could envision case number four, where an individual simply asks an open-source AI to make money, and it is the AI that decides to set up companies and control them. Under these circumstances, the human who gave the original request to make money may have no ownership at all in the company created by AI. It is also possible that AI is permitted to create companies, or use a false identity to register the entity. This complex problem may, however, have a very simple solution. 

For a long time, the Tax Justice Network has proposed that the definition of beneficial ownership should include elements beyond ownership and control, especially the concept of benefits. As described in our report Beneficial ownership registration around the world 2022, some countries such as Colombia, already apply the element of benefits, such as the right to receive dividends, when defining beneficial ownership.  

While humans are still the ones using AI to their advantage and creating AI-controlled companies, it is likely that they will continue to try to reap the benefits, particularly financial gain. For this reason, the definition of beneficial owner should include any human who is in some way benefitting from the AI-controlled company, especially in financial terms. If this approach is followed, then beneficial ownership registration may need to go beyond simply asking for the passport of the beneficial owner. It may become necessary to collect more detailed information about companies, such as their assets, bank accounts, dividends and other types of payments, in order to identify who the benefit-based beneficial owners are. Beyond registration systems, a definition of beneficial ownership that includes benefits may also help to rethink limited liability. This would ensure that at least one human, such as a benefit-based beneficial owner, can still be held liable for any harm caused by companies created and controlled by AI.   

What comes next   

Countries and international standard-setting bodies should begin to consider how to prevent or respond to the involvement of AI in the ownership and control of companies and other legal vehicles. In some cases, this may already be happening. We offer this contribution as an entry point into a rapidly evolving debate.

Uncovering hidden power in the UK’s PSC Register

A new report, authored by Maria Jofre (Open Ownership) and Andres Knobel (Tax Justice Network), provides an in-depth analysis of the United Kingdom (UK) People with Significant Control (PSC) register. The research identifies key trends in beneficial ownership (BO) structures, assesses the transparency of ownership data, and highlights potential risks in ownership networks. The findings aim to inform policy reforms, enhance enforcement actions, and strengthen the credibility of BO registries.

Research objectives

This research was driven by three main objectives:

  1. Explore policy reform aspects related to beneficial ownership, focusing on ownership interests, disclosure thresholds, and the complexity of ownership networks.
  2. Identify outliers and anomalous ownership patterns that may indicate potential risks or irregularities in ownership structures.
  3. Develop a scalable and replicable analytical framework for examining ownership structures across different contexts and jurisdictions, offering a practical tool for researchers and authorities to assess ownership networks more effectively.
Key findings and insights

The analysis of the UK PSC register revealed valuable insights into ownership structures, particularly in terms of ownership concentration, transparency, and complexity. The dataset covers approximately 5.2 million individual beneficial owners, 6.1 million entities, and 6.5 million owner-entity relationships, comprising 14.2 million declared interests (see Figure 1).

Figure 1: Visualisation of the UK PSC information

Key findings include the following:

  1. Ownership interests and control

The research shows that shareholding and voting rights are the most frequently reported ownership interests, with most entities controlled by a single or small group of beneficial owners. Notably, 56% of reported interests fall within the 75–100% range for both shareholding and voting rights, indicating a high degree of concentrated control. When looking at combinations of interests, the most common configuration involves a single beneficial owner holding shares, voting rights, and board-appointment rights simultaneously (see Figure 2), further highlighting the concentration of power among a limited number of individuals.

  1. Ownership complexity

While most entities in the dataset have relatively simple ownership structures, the study identified a subset with highly complex and opaque ownership chains involving multiple intermediary entities. Such complexity increases the risk of misuse by obscuring who ultimately controls an entity. In one exemplary case, an entity had listed 18 intermediary entities but no individual beneficial owners.

Figure 2: Top ten most common interest types and combinations

  1. Identifying anomalous patterns

The research also identified several outliers that deviate from typical ownership patterns, including:

Conclusions

The findings from this analysis highlight the importance of comprehensive and structured BO data for improving transparency and detecting hidden control. Using lower disclosure thresholds and capturing precise ownership values can help authorities and researchers more effectively identify anomalies and assess risk.

The methodology developed in this study, including the use of a reproducible Python notebook, offers a scalable and adaptable framework for analysing ownership structures. It enables systematic assessments of ownership data across different countries and contexts, supporting better enforcement, policy design, and registry implementation.

By contributing new insights and practical tools, this research supports ongoing global efforts to strengthen beneficial ownership transparency and address the misuse of legal vehicles for illicit purposes.

Lessons from Australia: Let the sunshine in!

Our friends and colleagues in Australia of the Centre for International Corporate Tax Accountability & Research, Tax Justice Network Australia, and researchers from the University of Technology Sydney Business School have developed a new tool that pulls together 10 years of corporate tax data in Australia. They want to keep developing and expanding this tool which helps make corporate tax data more easily accessible to everyone. Later in 2025 they will begin to get the new public country-by country reporting data coming through due to Australia’s new, world-leading multinational tax transparency reporting requirement. When they incorporate that, this tool will be even better. Jason Ward describes this new tool for us:

Despite some progress, the world’s largest multinational corporations – many with unprecedented monopoly power – continue to shift hundreds of billions in profits ever year to tax havens. Put simply, this theft by the world’s wealthiest companies and individuals steals funding for essential public services and infrastructure. A fabricated funding gap is then used to justify governments turning over responsibility for public services to extractive for-profit investors. This dangerous spiral continues to exacerbate inequality, between the global north and south and increasingly within nations in both the north and the south. The harm is heavily concentrated on those that are already the most vulnerable. To drive public pressure and create the political will for tax reforms and adequate funding for quality public services, greater transparency is urgently needed.

Tax dodging, as with pollution and worker exploitation, externalises the costs of illegitimate corporate behaviour on the general public.  However, its hard to see tax dodging directly and therefore frequently harder to fix. Loopholes that enable exploitative and unfair tax dodging to continue are not, by design, easily visible, nor are tax payments (or lack thereof) by large corporations. What is seen is degraded public health, education and social services and deteriorating infrastructure. However, it is not always easy to connect the dots.

When cases of corporate tax dodging are exposed, the villains simply state that ‘we follow the law…’. Well-funded tax dodging enablers say ‘if you don’t like the law change it, don’t blame the corporations…’. However, national and international tax systems have been and continue to be perverted by corporate power and lobbying. Corporations have written the rules in their favour and to the detriment of society. How can societies overcome this power and information imbalance and make these problems – and the causes – clearly visible?

Sunshine is a powerful disinfectant and has been vigorously opposed by tax dodging multinational corporations and the enablers that prefer to keep the public, and elected representatives, in the dark. Tax transparency must continue to bloom to create the public demand and political will for long overdue changes to national and global tax systems that effectively tackle inequality and lead towards fairness and sustainability.

With strong civil society and union demands, the Australian government resisted intense global lobbying and has now passed the world’s best multinational tax transparency reporting requirement. The data, public country-by-country reporting (based on the GRI Tax Standard) for Australia and 40 of the most abused corporate tax havens, will begin to appear in 2026. This will help shed further light on the tax practices of most of the world’s large multinationals, those that have at least AUD$10 million in annual Australian revenue.

Significantly, public support for this measure was in part driven by already existing tax transparency reporting in Australia. For the last ten years, the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) has published the total income, taxable income and tax payable for any company with over $200 million in total income. While tax collections have improved significantly over this time, every year there is renewed public outrage over how many large corporations generated massive revenues and still pay ZERO, or very little, in tax. There are 98 companies that have paid ZERO tax over the whole decade. As one example, DP World – one of two large and highly profitable port operators which is controlled by Dubai’s royal family and operates major ports around the world – has not paid one cent in corporate income tax in Australia over the full decade. On the positive side, with transparency, public campaigning and government reforms, corporations like Chevron, Exxon and Glencore – with years of aggressive tax dodging – are now top taxpayers in Australia. Chevron now pays more income tax in Australia than in the US or any country in the world.

To help make this ATO data more accessible for everyone and to allow people to quickly check on individual corporations, a collaboration between CICTAR, Tax Justice Network – Australia, and researchers from the University of Technology Sydney (UTS) Business School have developed a new tool that pulls together the full 10 years of corporate tax data. Check it out: https://www.infotax.media/data_analytics

Currently, it includes 1,028 corporations for which there is a full 10 years of data. Other corporations and additional functionality will be added. If corporations are tax dodging in Australia – with relatively robust enforcement – it would be expected that they are tax dodging in other jurisdictions as well. The Australian data is a great place to start when looking at multinational tax practices. This data should be available in every country.

This Australian collaboration eagerly anticipates publicising the far better and more comprehensive public country-by-country reporting data when it begins to become available next year. Going beyond Australia’s current tax transparency, this will either motivate corporations to temper aggressive tax dodging or face exposure to which tax havens are being abused to shift profits and avoid obligations in Australia. The Australian data will be useful globally to identify multinational profit shifting patterns.

For a current example of what this data can reveal, the EU Tax Observatory’s Taxplorer tool, provides a compilation of data from 150 corporations that already voluntarily provide some form of country-by-country reporting. The simplest and clearest metric is the ability to examine profits per employee in each jurisdiction. One might conclude that Bermuda shorts or Panama hats are a massive boost to worker productivity, or perhaps something else is going on? Data from the EU’s public country by country reporting directive will also be available soon but only requires reporting on EU member states and from a short and lacking list of ‘non-cooperative’ jurisdictions.

It’s time to end the myth of corporate tax payments (or lack thereof) as being somehow commercially sensitive and confidential. For large corporates this data must be public everywhere. Banks in the EU have been required to produce public country by country reporting for the last decade and it has not created any competitive disadvantage compared to global peers. Large multinationals have been reporting country by country tax payments under the OECD’s base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS) project since 2016; however, this data is strictly confidential and only available to a small number of tax authorities and can’t inform other arms of government or other stakeholders.

Once we can see the data, companies that pay taxes appropriately where profits are genuinely earned from sales, services, manufacturing or resource extraction should be congratulated. These companies, who are more likely to treat all stakeholders with greater respect, operate at a major competitive disadvantage to large tax dodging multinationals. Business should compete on quality and innovation rather than ability and willingness to exploit loopholes and avoid obligations. Corporations who abuse accounting tricks to shift profits through complex global corporate structures should be named and shamed.

With transparency both governments and consumers can make informed choices about which companies they choose to do business with. Investors will know which companies compete on smart, innovative and sustainable long-term business strategies and which ones take major risks through questionable and contestable short-term and unsustainable financial engineering schemes. Even in the US, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) – following pressure from investors – has mandated greater transparency from US companies on international tax payments

Other countries, or regional bodies, must push forward with public country by country reporting for multinationals until we have full public country by country reporting as a global standard through the emerging UN Tax Convention. People around the world should demand immediate transparency on tax payments by the largest corporations in their own countries. The public has a right to know now!

When people are able to see the scale of the problem – and how, where and who is stealing from our public coffers, the political will for change will become undeniable.

[Image credit: JJ Harrison (https://www.jjharrison.com.au/) CC BY-SA 3.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0 via Wikimedia Commons]

Pope Francis, 1936-2025

It is with genuine sadness that we heard of Pope Francis’ death earlier this week. Throughout his papacy, Pope Francis has been a global ally of tax justice. In particular, Pope Francis recognised and highlighted the role of tax as our social superpower, allowing us all to live better, healthier, happier lives together.  

In his words: “The tax pact is the heart of the social pact. Taxes are also a form of sharing wealth, so that it becomes common goods, public goods: schools, health, rights, care, science, culture, heritage. Of course, taxes must be fair, equitable, set according to each person’s ability to pay… The tax system and administration must be efficient and not corrupt. But taxes should not be regarded as usurpation. They are a high form of sharing goods; they are the heart of the social compact.” 

Pope Francis believed that taxation “should promote the redistribution of wealth, protecting the dignity of the poor and the last, who are always in danger of being crushed by the powerful. Taxation, when it is just, is in function of the common good.”  

The Pope railed against tax abuse but contrasted it with the great value of the majority in contributing their dues: “Alongside the cases of tax evasion, black payments, and widespread illegality, you can tell of the honesty of many people who do not shirk their duty, who pay their due and thus contribute to the common good. The scourge of evasion is answered by the simple rectitude of so many taxpayers, and this is a model of social justice.” 

The Pope also recognised the critical international elements of tax justice. One of Pope Francis’ final public acts before he was admitted to hospital in February this year was to have been a message for the High Level Dialogue on Tax Justice and Solidarity hosted by the Vatican. Here, the Pontifical Academy of Social Sciences, together with the Independent Commission for the Reform of International Corporate Taxation (ICRICT), convened a global conversation on the threats of cross-border tax abuse by multinational companies and wealthy individuals. The Pope’s message would have been relayed alongside those of the heads of state of Spain, Brazil and South Africa, who called for rapid progress in the negotiations of an ambitious UN tax convention along with leading speakers from the tax justice movement and the Catholic church. 

The Tax Justice Network regards Pope Francis as an important ally and advocate for tax justice; as someone whose gaze turned first to those people most marginalised in society, and whose voice spoke for those who had no voice; and we mourn his passing.  

Vulnerabilities to illicit financial flows: complementing national risk assessments

It came as a surprise to many when in 2006, the money laundering watchdog Financial Action Task Force (FATF) found the US’ legal framework’s fitness to counter money laundering wanting. Was the US not leading the fight against dirty money globally? Not long after, the US topped the first edition of the Financial Secrecy Index in 2009 as the world’s biggest enabler of global financial secrecy. And returned to this spot on the 2022 edition of the index. Over the course of the past two decades, the US hypocrisy in international efforts against illicit financial flows has become widely understood.

Today, the risks the US is posing to the integrity of the global financial system are even more glaringly obvious under the Trump 2.0 administration. As if further proof was needed, US president Trump has announced backtracking on already weak efforts at reforming the US beneficial ownership registration requirements, as we have discussed in a previous blogpost (see here).

Yet, the prevailing approaches to assess country risk as part of the efforts against money laundering usually omits the US as a source of substantial risk to money laundering. So why is the US omitted if it has been long understood to be one of the world’s biggest secrecy enablers?

Several years ago, the FATF mandated so-called national risk assessments for countries to evaluate their nation-wide money laundering risks and prioritise the most important ones. Nonetheless, national risk assessments have proven often to be insufficient due to lack of data transparency, outdated methodologies, and time gaps between rounds of evaluation. For instance, so-called “blacklists” of non-cooperative jurisdictions are often based on dubious, opaque and politically biased criteria which tend to perpetuate stereotypes about which countries pose the biggest risk of illicit financial flows.

In our recent publication in the European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research, we present a novel data-driven approach to complement national risk assessments in order to improve their objectivity and reliability in the fight against dirty money.

Unsurprisingly, the US comes in among the top 5 biggest sources of risk for all three case studies featured in our paper. These case studies are Brazil, Nigeria and Indonesia.

The paper, titled Which Money to Follow? Evaluating Country-Specific Vulnerabilities to Illicit Financial Flows, is published in the European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research and freely available here.

Looking for illicit financial flows in the right places

National risk assessments have been central to FATF’s risk-based approach to fight illicit financial flows since its 4th round of mutual evaluations which began in 2014. Their elaboration involves multiple public and private agencies and they are designed to provide a structured understanding of money laundering and terrorism financing risks to enable an efficient allocation of resources based on each country’s profile.

However, national risk assessments present certain deficiencies that undermine their effectiveness. Among the most salient ones is the overdependence on expert surveys, as many national risk assessments rely heavily on expert opinions rather than on objective and verifiable data with solid background, causing subjectivity and the chance to reinforce stereotypes. Another relevant one is the lack of clear and comprehensive methodology, considering that traditional national risk assessments fail to have a methodological approach that integrates qualitative insights with quantitative data comprehensively, resulting in incomplete risk profiles. And a third main one relates to timeliness issues, since national risk assessments are often static exercises conducted every few years, which leaves countries with little chance to keep pace with the dynamic nature of illicit financial flows risks.

The methodology we propose to assess vulnerabilities to illicit financial flows addresses the abovementioned shortcomings. First, it draws on the FATF’s risk analysis matrix, a combination of likelihood of a risk occurring and the significance of impact or damage if it materialises. In addition, our methodology considers that said likelihood increases with increases in the level of financial secrecy. In fact, the easier it is to conceal details in a transaction, the higher the probability of concealment occurring.

Moreover, the methodology focuses on the main economic channels exploited for illicit financial flows. These are: (1) foreign direct investment, made by a firm or individual in one country into controlling business interests located in another; (2) foreign portfolio investments, comprising the purchase of securities and financial assets without necessarily having control over the underlying company; and (3) trade, that is, commerce of goods where manipulation of price, quantity, and quality can take the form of mis-invoicing, among other practices.

The proposed methodology combines two key elements: publicly available quantitative economic data about the economic channels and qualitative analysis of legal frameworks on financial secrecy.

The quantitative side utilises the International Monetary Fund’s Coordinated Direct Investment Survey for bilateral foreign direct investment data and the Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey for portfolio investments. Industry-specific bilateral trade data is sourced from the UN Comtrade Database. To address gaps where countries are not covered or data is incomplete, mirrored statistics based on partner countries’ data are used.

The qualitative analysis focuses on the financial secrecy of partner jurisdictions, employing the Secrecy Score comprised in the Financial Secrecy Index 2022 of the Tax Justice Network. It offers a detailed and publicly accessible database outlining the legal and regulatory framework of each jurisdiction concerning financial secrecy and the opportunities available for individuals and companies to conceal their identity and activities.

Both key elements are then combined to assess the illicit financial flows risk, providing three different metrics within each economic channel: (1) vulnerability, that is, the degree to which a country is susceptible to illicit financial flows due to the weighted secrecy scores of partner jurisdictions; (2) exposure, the weight of the vulnerability of an economic channel against its relevance for a country’s economy; and (3) secrecy risk contribution, the proportion of the total illicit financial flow risk that a partner jurisdiction contributes to another.

The proposed framework offers the following advantages over traditional national risk assessments:

The methodology thus built offers a usable tool both at the macro level for complementing national risk assessments alongside other current risk assessment strategies, and at the micro level, for obliged entities and enforcement agencies to identify and investigate illicit financial flows more effectively, for example by adapting the methodology to assess risk in suspicious transaction reports.

Case studies from the Global South

We illustrate the methodology’s efficacy by means of case studies in three Global South countries, as a response to current literature on national risk assessments focused exclusively on Global North countries. Nigeria, Brazil and Indonesia are therefore chosen as sample countries due to the public availability of their national risk assessments, their large populations, and their locations on different continents.

The assessment of each of country focuses on one specific economic channel per country. Nigeria’s assessment focuses on inward foreign direct investment; Brazil’s focuses on Outward Foreign Portfolio Investment; and Indonesia’s on trade imports.

Below we present the gist of the country level findings captured by our methodology but not by the countries’ own national risk assessments. The US features among the top 5 sources of risk for all three countries.

Nigeria: inward foreign direct investment

From all economic channels, Nigeria’s main vulnerabilities to illicit financial flows lie in inward foreign direct investment, both in the form of debt and equity investment. The activity alone signifies a 11% of Nigeria’s GDP. High-secrecy jurisdictions like the Cayman Islands, the Netherlands and Bermuda contribute 17% of Nigeria’s total secrecy risk, enabling the flow of dirty money under the disguise of a legitimate investments. This highlights the need for stricter oversight in this economic channel.

Top contributors to Nigeria’s risk via inward foreign direct investment.
Brazil: outward portfolio investments

Brazil’s case outlines the risk of outward investment, helping illustrate how outflows can also pose illicit financial flows risk. Brazil’s outward portfolio investments reveal significant vulnerabilities to illicit financial flows, mainly in the form of equity investments. The US emerges as the top contributor to secrecy risks due in part to limited information-sharing agreements. With over US$21 billion in investments from Brazilians in the Global North country, it turns out that it is worth prioritising targeted interventions into the channel.

Top contributors to Brazil’s risk via outward portfolio investments.
Indonesia: trade imports

Indonesia’s highest vulnerabilities to illicit financial flows are in imports within the trade channel. Imports represent a value of US$138.6 billion – an amount that makes the activity have a considerable exposure to highly secretive trading partners like China, Vietnam and Singapore, from which a large portion of the country’s secrecy risk is derived. Sectors particularly vulnerable to price manipulation include electronics, textiles, and minerals. A more nuanced view on the specific risks per sectors in imports is needed to better understand Indonesia’s vulnerabilities.

Top contributors to Indonesia’s risk in imports.

Conclusion

As the global financial system is becoming more fragmented amid rising authoritarianism, and as the good will efforts to please the US under Trump 2.0 dwindle globally, countries must take a fresh look at the data behind their risk assessments. Unbiased and reliable data can help navigate these difficult times and changing terrains, and offer an opportunity to strengthen the ongoing fight against money laundering and the crimes it enables.

Our proposed methodology to gauge vulnerabilities to illicit financial flows helps stakeholders address existing gaps in national risk assessments, acting as a backstop against the amounts of money funneled through economic channels under pretense of legality. The case studies of Nigeria, Brazil, and Indonesia demonstrate that a more robust and effective approach to combating illicit flows is possible. At the micro level, this approach opens the door for obliged entities, law enforcement agencies as well as other relevant stakeholders to invest in new robust tools for enhancing their efforts to counter illicit financial flows.

You can read the full paper here.

A tax justice lens on Palestine

Tax has been an important tool of Israel’s illegal occupation of the Palestinian territories. The denial of Palestinians’ human rights, including the right to self-determination, represents an egregious and longstanding injustice.  

There are two main tax justice aspects to consider: the role of tax in the occupation regime; and the role of tax in respect of a range of private and state parties around the world that are acting in support of either the illegal occupation or the current acts that are plausibly considered to constitute war crimes and/or genocide. This note briefly explores these two aspects. 

International law and Palestinian statehood 

The Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories since 1967 (the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza Strip) has been ruled illegal under international law by the International Court of Justice (ICJ), along with any claim to sovereignty over any part of the occupied territories. Per the ICJ opinion of July 2024, Israel’s occupation regime “constitutes systemic discrimination” and breaches the prohibition of “racial segregation and apartheid.” 

In January 2024, in a case brought by South Africa, the International Court of Justice ruled that there was a plausible risk that Israel was conducting genocide against the Palestinian people. A March 2025 report to the UN Human Rights Council details “Israel’s widespread destruction of Gaza [and] disproportionate violence against women and children” after an attack from Gaza on 7 October 2023. The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants against Israel’s Prime Minister and then Defence Minister for war crimes and crimes against humanity.  

International calls for reconstruction and the establishment of a Palestinian state have been growing. Egypt’s proposal has been adopted by the Arab League and received backing from France, Germany, Italy and the UK, while the European Union has framed its analysis explicitly in terms of a Palestinian state. With Mexico’s statement in February 2025, 147 of the 193 UN member countries formally recognise the state of Palestine. 

Full tax sovereignty is a core component of an effective state, delivering on the rights and aspirations of its people, and should be a priority in the establishment of a Palestinian state. Tax incentives in Israel and elsewhere that have contributed to the denial of Palestinian statehood through occupation will also require to be addressed.

Tax under occupation 

When states depend more on tax than other sources of revenue for public spending, that public spending tends to be better targeted to public concerns such as health and education, more effectively spent, and the government itself more responsive and less corrupt over time. This governance dividend is why we describe tax as our social superpower: a uniquely powerful tool by which we can organise ourselves to live better lives, together.  

Tax can deliver revenues for inclusive public services; the redistribution to curb deep, overlapping inequalities; the repricing of public goods and bads such as tobacco consumption; and effective political representation, based on a powerful social contract that underpins accountable government. But under occupation since the period when most colonies began to gain independence, Palestine has remained largely deprived of the ability to exercise its own taxing rights, a process of immiseration through the denial of sovereignty.  

Since 1967, Israel has formally dominated a range of Palestinian taxes, including customs, through its exercise of military power in occupation. This has created the opportunity to limit the actions of the elected representatives of the Palestinian people, and the latter’s oversight, “underscor[ing] the pivotal role of financial control as a tool of settler-colonial domination.” UN independent experts wrote to the Israeli government in 2024 to demand an end to its punitive withholding of taxes. In April 2025, the Palestinian Authority claimed that Israel was withholding US$1.8 billion in tax revenue.

Tax incentives to occupy 

Tax has been used consistently by the Israeli state to incentivise the embedding and expansion of occupation. Studies from the Israeli human rights organisation B’Tselem (2002), the Palestinian Economic Policy Research Institute (MAS, 2012), and from US and Israeli academics (2019), show variously the scale and importance of tax incentives and other economic support to the settlements. Many multinationals as well as Israeli businesses are active in the settlements. Recent analysis by The Guardian exposes the role of Airbnb and Booking.com, for example, and the more comprehensive database of the Who Profits? Research Center identifies many others from Expedia and Tripadvisor to Caterpillar and Microsoft.  

Businesses operating in or profiting from the settlements do so despite the International Court of Justice finding that “Israel has an obligation to put an end to these unlawful acts… [and] to repeal all legislation and measures creating or maintaining the unlawful situation, including… all measures aimed at modifying the demographic composition of any parts of the territory [and] to provide full reparation for the damage caused by its internationally wrongful acts to all natural or legal persons concerned.” As such, businesses are in violation of human rights commitments and may also themselves be open to future claims for reparations.  

Elsewhere in the world, many countries provide charitable status – and therefore a tax incentive – for organisations that support illegal settlements in occupied Palestine. This has seen legal challenges to specific organisations and also attempts to legislate against the use of public funds for internationally unlawful aims (as currently in New York’s proposed ‘Not on Our Dime’ Act). The use of tax revenue is yet more direct in a range of countries including the UK and US which are providing military support to the plausibly genocidal campaign by Israel.

Tax justice in the Palestinian context 

Israel’s occupation denies Palestinians’ human rights, including the rights to self-determination and to development. The military campaign being waged against Palestinians, combined with dehumanising rhetoric from the highest levels of the Israeli state, and policies of collective punishment that deny Palestinians’ basic needs, appears explicitly genocidal. Many of the actions involved seem clearly to constitute war crimes.  

In this context, tax matters may seem almost administrative, and of negligible importance. Nonetheless, Israel’s withholding of tax sovereignty has been a significant and compounding factor in the denial of Palestinian rights. A future Palestinian state can only be constructed on the basis of full tax sovereignty, to ensure the potential for the effective fulfilment of those rights.  

Tax has also been used as a tool to incentivise the occupation, and not only in Israel. Tax law and policy provide potential levers to curb or even reverse those effects, from the denial of charitable status to organisations supporting illegal occupation, to the denial of tax benefits for companies profiting from occupation. Taxpayers elsewhere are empowered to challenge their governments over the use of public funds to support internationally unlawful acts.  

New article explores why the fight for beneficial ownership transparency isn’t over

Beneficial ownership registration has recently featured in a series of high-profile controversies, from the European Court of Justice limiting public access to EU registers, to litigation in US courts seeking to suspend the implementation of the Corporate Transparency Act. The topic has even managed to appear prominently in a tweet by the US president, who boisterously celebrated the fact that – due to the elimination of enforcement- US entities are effectively suspended from the obligation to report to FinCEN the real individuals who ultimately own them.

Loopholes in the law had already ensured that registration covered only a very limited number of entities, but the recent ongoing legal battles in the US have further increased the uncertainty regarding recent advances.

In a recent publication, my colleagues and I have examined some factors that negatively impact the effectiveness of beneficial ownership registration. We have argued that the existing transnational legal order which governs beneficial ownership registration remains fragmented, loosely institutionalised, and unable to effectively handle the misuse of legal vehicles. The paper, which we summarise below, was published in Transnational Legal Theory and is available on SSRN.

Secrecy as a global issue and the transnational responses which sought to tackle it

The impact of the lack of information on who owns or controls a company extends beyond national borders. As the Panama Papers and other leaks have shown, when a country establishes legal frameworks that obscure ownership, it creates potential spillover effects, not just for its own law enforcement but for the entire world. Moreover, the global implications of this issue were recognised long before these leaks.

In our article, we trace this concern back to the late 1990s, reconstructing how the misuse of legal vehicles became a global issue within various international organisations, including the United Nations, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), and the Financial Stability Board.

Ever since this issue entered the international agenda, access to beneficial ownership information has been considered central to proposed responses.

Beneficial owners are the flesh and blood individuals who ultimately own, control, and benefit from a legal vehicle, whether a company, partnership, foundation, or trust. They are the individuals behind the LLC, the true owners of the house or yacht registered in the name of a trust.

Historically, organisations and countries have explored different approaches to ensure authorities can access this information, such as the existing information approach, which relies on intermediaries and service providers such as banks and lawyers knowing the identities of the beneficial owner, and the company approach, which mandates that at least the company must know who actually owns it.

As we’ve argued before, both approaches have been flawed and, in practice, have failed to guarantee that authorities can access information on legal vehicles held by their residents or registered and operating in their countries. Our paper examines the institutionalisation of the registration approach, which requires companies and other legal vehicles to register ownership information with authorities.

To analyse the level of institutionalisation of transnational responses to beneficial ownership registration, our article draws insights from the work of two academics, Gregory Schaffer and Terrence Halliday. These authors have been at the forefront of discussions on transnational legal orders, which is a body of work examining the way that “legal norms are constructed, flow, settle, and unsettle across levels of social organisation, from the transnational to the local”. For these authors, institutionalisation is the product of two key dimensions: normative settlement and issue alignment.

Normative settlement is a term for the process by which the norms become stabilised through multiple mechanisms, such as definitions in manuals or conventions, interpretations in courts, or even through the discussions and practices of professionals. Grounded in a sociological tradition, the process of settlement refers not only to how laws are written, but how the practice shapes the level of settlement, stabilising or destabilising their meaning and implementation.

In our paper, we examine how beneficial ownership registration gained prominence as a key norm to tackle the misuse of legal vehicles.  We do so by looking at the transnational, national and local levels. Our paper identifies an undeniable trend towards the adoption of beneficial ownership registration laws, with the number of jurisdictions with such laws jumping from 34 in the 2018 edition of the Financial Secrecy Index to 97 in the 2022 edition.

Interestingly, our paper finds that this movement was not unidirectional – meaning change did not solely flow in one direction from transnational standards to domestic implementation. In fact, some of the first examples of beneficial ownership registration can be traced back to mid-20th century, and some important initiatives have been pioneered at the domestic or regional level to only then gain more prominence in FATF standards or guidance. In particular, the relationship between the EU directives on Anti-Money Laundering and the FATF recommendations, something we explored in a different publication, has long shaped this specific transnational legal order.

Exploring alignment using data from domestic implementation

In our paper, we draw on insights we acquired from the data we collected for the most recent update  of the Financial Secrecy Index and for our report on the state of Beneficial ownership registration in 2022. We review certain aspects of beneficial ownership registration, such as the authorities in charge of registration, how the scope and triggers of registration are defined, who can access registered data, and how the beneficial owners are defined. We do so to analyse the level of alignment of such norms with the issue they seek to tackle, that is, the misuse of legal vehicles.

The data shows that while there is consensus that a lack of transparency of legal vehicles is an obstacle to prevent illicit financial flows and that registration with authorities is increasingly recognised as a necessary solution to tackle this issue, existing legal norms on beneficial ownership registration are poorly aligned with the issue they seek to tackle. This causes national laws to vary considerably and contributes to weak settlement at the local level.

For example, our article examines variations in the definitions of beneficial ownership and how they have been implemented in multiple jurisdictions. The FATF first formulated the concept of beneficial owners in the context of due diligence measures, under Recommendation 10. In its glossary and guidance, the FATF further sought to settle the meaning of this concept. While in its definition no threshold was proposed, a footnote note to the interpretative note indicated a 25% threshold of ownership or voting rights as indicative of beneficial ownership. Such high thresholds, which ended up being picked up by most registration laws, are deeply flawed and meant than half of companies registered in Luxembourg did not inform anyone who actually directly or indirectly benefited from or owned them, often registering a senior manager instead.

Aligning norms with their objectives: fixing the legal ordering of beneficial ownership registration

Current controversies regarding certain aspects of beneficial ownership registration – such as some of the cases we discussed in the introduction – are better understood in the context of a loosely institutionalised legal order which has so far failed to deliver on its objectives. Our paper suggests that looking at transnational legal orders could offer important insights to researchers and policymakers seeking to understand and improve a specific policy institutionalisation.

For instance, this literature recalls the importance of thinking about how a specific issue is constructed, considering that different formulations of a same topic may lead to very different policy approaches. In a related paper, one co-author has explored this topic for beneficial ownership information in detail, showing how the multiple uses of beneficial ownership information need to be considered when designing domestic laws, as they may require different responses depending how the issue is formulated.

This article additionally proposes key measures that could improve the institutionalisation of the responses towards the misuse of legal entities to hide the identities of their owners. These suggestions include improving definitions of beneficial owners, ensuring public access, and guaranteeing that the scope and triggers of registration are broad enough to cover all of the legal vehicles which might pose transparency risks. These solutions have been explored in greater detail our Roadmap to Effective Beneficial Ownership Transparency.

You can read our full paper in Transnational Legal Theory or on SSRN.

Strengthening Africa’s tax governance: reflections on the Lusaka country by country reporting workshop

Over recent decades, the international tax landscape has grown increasingly complex, driven by the rise of multinational enterprises (MNEs) and intensified race to the bottom on corporate tax rate – often sugar-coated as “tax competition” – across jurisdictions. This race to the bottom has led to the proliferation of corporate tax havens, enabling multinational enterprises to shift profits and lower their effective tax rates, creating a significant misalignment between economic activity and reported profits. The practice is estimated to cost governments globally nearly US$350 billion annually, with  countries disproportionately affected due to higher tax revenue losses relative to their overall tax base.

Considering the revenue losses, policymakers have prioritised tackling tax abuse by multinational enterprises. The G20/OECD Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) project, particularly Action 13 on transfer pricing documentation and country by country reporting (CbCR), represents a crucial step toward enhancing tax transparency. By requiring large multinational enterprises to disclose financial data across jurisdictions, country by country reporting provides tax authorities with detailed insights into multinational enterprises’ global corporate activities, enabling better detection of profit shifting and cross-border tax abuse.

Despite these advancements, many lower income countries continue to face significant challenges in implementing and utilising country by country reporting data. Technical barriers prevent them from joining the Multilateral Competent Authority Agreement (MCAA), which facilitates the reciprocal exchange of country by country reporting data between countries. A limited analytical capacity makes it challenging to effectively leverage country by country reporting for risk assessment, even for the few countries with access to the data. These challenges are further compounded by the complexities of the proposed global minimum tax, which risks shifting tax revenues away from lower income countries to multinational enterprise headquarter jurisdictions since lower income countries lack the necessary data and capacity to monitor their compliance.

Recognising the importance of equipping tax officials with the necessary technical skills to use the country by country reporting data effectively, a workshop on its application in risk assessment and profit shifting detection was held from 4–6 March 2025 in Lusaka, Zambia.

The event was organised under the Addis Tax Initiative (ATI) with support from Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) and its Good Governance Program. It brought together tax officials and policymakers from six African countries. The participating countries and institutions include representatives from the Ghana Revenue Authority, Zambia Revenue Authority and the Ministry of Finance, Malawi Revenue Authority, Tanzania Revenue Authority, Benin Revenue Authority, and Ethiopia’s Ministry of Finance. Matthew Amalitinga Abagna, Mario Cuenda Garcia, and Miroslav Palansky from the Tax Justice Network, along with Sarah Godar and Giulia Aliprandi from the EU Tax Observatory, facilitated the workshop, providing technical insights into using both firm-level and aggregate country by country reporting data for improved tax enforcement.

The workshop began with welcome remarks from Joseph Nonde, Direct Taxes Commissioner of the Zambian Revenue Authority. He underscored the role of the training in enhancing the capacity of the participating countries to leverage data for corporate tax risk assessment. He emphasised that equipping tax authorities with the capacity to analyse the country by country reporting data will enable them to identify multinational enterprises potentially engaged in profit shifting for targeted auditing. This, he notes, will ultimately boost domestic revenue mobilisation and sustainable economic development in the participating countries.  

Joseph Nonde, Zambia Revenue Authority – Direct Taxes Commissioner

The workshop’s first session provided participants with a comprehensive understanding of country by country reporting data and its role in tackling profit shifting by multinational enterprises. The session began with an overview of OECD country by country reporting data, covering its history, content, availability, and current implementation status globally, as well as among ATI partner countries. Notably, none of the participating ATI partner countries currently have access to firm-level country by country reporting data via information exchange systems, highlighting a significant gap in tax transparency.

Miroslav Palansky, Tax Justice Network, delivering a session on country by country reporting

The session further explored alternative sources of country by country reporting data, including voluntary disclosures and country-level aggregate reporting, and demonstrated how tax authorities can use the data in conjunction with corporate income tax returns to assess corporate tax risks, detect profit misalignment and shifting, and enhance tax audits.

Experts also shared best practices from Slovakia, Czechia, France, Italy, and Germany, where firm-level country by country reporting data has been used in collaboration with tax authorities. Encouraged by these examples, participating countries were urged to explore introducing their own country by country reporting frameworks to compel multinational enterprises to file reports locally in order to strengthen their ability to combat cross-border tax abuse. Participants also gained practical experience visualising the country by country reporting data using the EU Tax Observatory’s analytical tools. This interactive session allowed attendees to explore OECD’s aggregate country by country reporting database, analyse global multinational enterprise activity and profit reporting, and identify misalignments between economic activity and declared profits based on the methodology used in the State of Tax Justice reports. Experts from the EU Tax Observatory also introduced the Atlas of the Offshore World to illustrate the scale of profit shifting into offshore financial centres using other methodologies.

The discussion then shifted to a regional analysis, examining profit shifting patterns in participating ATI partner countries and Africa as a whole, as well as the role of offshore financial centres in facilitating multinational enterprises’ profit shifting out of the region.

Participants were exposed to the various channels (ie transfer pricing, the use of intangible assets and intellectual property, shell companies and offshore financial centres) that multinational enterprises use to shift profits and how the current international tax system enables profit shifting by multinational enterprises. The session also provided updates on global tax reforms, including the OECD’s two-pillar approach and the ongoing negotiations of the UN tax convention.

A key discussion point arising from this session was the implementation of the OECD’s proposed global minimum tax. The proposal sets a 15% minimum corporate tax rate for large multinational enterprises to curb the race to the bottom and prevent profit shifting into corporate tax havens.

Matthew Amalitinga Abagna, Tax Justice Network, presenting on regional patterns of profit

Participants rightfully pointed out that the proposal presents challenges for African countries rather than solutions to profit shifting by multinational enterprises. A significant concern is that the 15% tax rate is relatively low compared to many African countries, where statutory corporate tax rates often exceed 25%. The OECD’s global minimum tax rate is not expected to make significant reductions in profit shifting globally, and may in some cases cause African countries to lose even more to multinational enterprises’ corporate tax abuse. A key driver behind this is the proposal’s significant revenue allocation disparities, as most additional tax revenue will flow to the headquarter countries of multinational enterprises rather than their source countries, where the actual economic activity occurs.

This raises legitimate fears that African economies may not see substantial revenue gains if the OECD’s global minimum tax is implemented. Moreover, implementing the proposal requires robust technical expertise and access to corporate tax data, such as the country by country reporting, to ensure compliance. Sadly, none of the participating countries are currently receiving country by country reporting data due to the limited resources and infrastructure required to implement the Multilateral Competent Authority Agreement (MCAA).

In addition, the Trump administration’s recent withdrawing from the OECD process and its threats of taking economic “counter-measures” against countries that implement the OECD’s proposed global minimum tax calls into the question implementation and sustainability of the proposal.

The final sessions of the workshop focused on hands-on exercises designed to equip participants with practical skills in using the country by country reporting data to detect potential profit shifting. These interactive sessions provided tax authorities with the tools to interpret country by country reporting data and identify profit misalignment.

Working with the voluntarily published country by country reporting data, participants gained insight into how multinational enterprises structure their operations and report profits across different jurisdictions. They then applied various apportionment methodologies used in the Tax Justice Network’s State of Tax Justice reports to assess economic activity across different jurisdictions, enabling them to compare theoretical profit allocations with actual reported profits in each jurisdiction.

A practical session underway

The analysis was extended to include identifying profit misalignment and potential profit shifting into lower-tax jurisdictions by integrating ‘Haven Scores’ from the Corporate Tax Haven Index and effective tax rates into the analysis. This enables participants to examine the relationship between profit misalignment, corporate tax haven status, and effective tax rates. This was followed by case studies from the extractive industries, assessing the risks posed by corporate structures in high-risk sectors such as oil and mining.

The final exercise focused on detecting companies with the highest levels of profit misalignment, including their operating locations and headquarters jurisdictions, and evaluating policy tools to mitigate tax risks. Discussions covered withholding taxes, thin capitalisation rules, and the challenges of applying transfer pricing controls in the absence of comparable data, especially in the extractive sector in Africa. Ghana, Zambia, and Tanzania shared their experiences and best practices for tackling cross-border tax abuse.

For tax authorities, these practical sessions proved invaluable. They gained hands-on experience using country by country reporting data for corporate tax risk assessment, enabling them to allocate their limited resources more effectively by focusing on targeted audits and developing tailored strategies to combat profit shifting. It was evident from the workshop that having access to detailed tax data is not enough. Building the technical capacity to analyse the data and act on findings is essential for effective tax governance.

The Lusaka workshop marked a significant step in strengthening Africa’s tax governance by equipping tax authorities with the tools to effectively enforce corporate tax compliance. For the participating countries to fully reap the benefits of the training, there is an urgent need for them to join the Multilateral Competent Authority Agreement (MCAA), which allows them to access country by country reporting data collected by other countries, develop regional data-sharing frameworks, especially in the area of transfer pricing for comparable analysis and the continuous technical capacity building to ensure that tax officials are equipped with cutting-edge skills to analyse aggregate and firm-level tax data to detect potential profit shifting by multinational enterprises.

These efforts by the Tax Justice Network to build the technical capacity of African tax administrations to utilise country by country reporting data directly respond to the commitment of the Conference of African Ministers of Finance, Planning and Economic Development on its work during the fifty-sixth session of the Economic Commission for Africa, which included the following resolution:

“6. Calls upon the international community to take appropriate action at the national, regional and global levels to ensure that illicit financial flows are treated as a system-wide challenge at the global level and that the international community adopts a global coordination mechanism to monitor illicit financial flows systematically, including through the central collation, publication and analysis of data on foreign financial accounts and country-by-country reporting by multinational companies.”

The workshop underscored the importance of regional tax cooperation, particularly in developing unified policy responses to the OECD’s global minimum tax proposal and profit shifting as a whole. African countries must continue to take a leading role in advocating for fairer tax allocation mechanisms, particularly at the ongoing UN tax negotiations, where the future of international taxation is being debated. This will ensure that global tax frameworks support sustainable development, economic justice, and fair participation in the global economy, not just for the richest countries. The momentum from Lusaka will continue as tax authorities implement lessons learned, refine their approaches to country by country reporting, and push for reforms that better serve Africa’s economic interests.

Do it like a tax haven: deny 24,000 children an education to send 2 to school

Our latest research published last week in the journal PLOS Global Public Health reveals the world has decided the educational rights of 2 Dutch children are more important than those of 24,000 Nigerian children.  

It’s bewildering. 

Thankfully, something is being done about it. 

Rich countries retreating from global solidarity 

We are seeing some of the world’s largest providers of overseas development assistance pulling back from their commitment to global solidarity, just as the majority of the world’s nations, led by Africa, is rallying behind the UN framework convention on tax to change the way the international tax system works, so there’ll be less reliance on aid and more on fairly raised taxes. 

This matters deeply when the world collectively loses an estimated $492 billion through multinational corporate tax abuse and society’s wealthiest people evading tax. The richest countries lose the most in absolute terms, but the poorest countries lose the most relative to their budgets since they’re more reliant on those revenues. Even though the richest countries lose in the billions, they are also some of the biggest global enablers of tax abuse, including Switzerland, Ireland, the Netherlands, and the UK, with its overseas territories and crown dependencies. 

You may be asking yourself why this is happening when most countries, even the richest, desperately need more money for health, education, better transport connections, and more housing. You name it, the list is long. 

So what do European tax havens stand to gain in terms of their ability to look after their own populations by providing access to fundamental economic and social rights through luring corporate profits made in other countries? And what’s the impact on rights in countries that are losing out on tax revenue on these shifted profits? A group of us—including child rights advocates, tax experts, and economists from the University of St Andrews, University of Leicester and the African Centre for Tax and Economic Studies—wanted to find out. 

There can be ‘no rights without revenue’ 

Tax havens are an anathema to human rights. When tax havens enable companies and people to dodge paying their fair share of tax where they do business or where they live, governments have fewer resources to spend on making sure we have a healthy and safe environment, our children can go to school, and our mothers do not die in childbirth.  

Over 70 years ago, the world agreed on the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, guaranteeing the right to education and health. Our national governments are primarily responsible for meeting those obligations. Still, every country also has extraterritorial obligations to mitigate the adverse impacts of its companies and domestic policies in other countries.  

For this reason, multiple UN human rights bodies, including the UN Committee on the Rights of the Child, have called out countries such as the Netherlands and Ireland for the deleterious impacts of their cross-border tax policy. The Committee asked the Netherlands to  

Conduct independent and participatory impact assessments of its tax and financial policies to ensure that they do not contribute to tax abuse by national companies operating outside the State party that lead to a negative impact on the availability of resources for the realisation of children’s rights in the countries in which they are operating. 

United Nations Committee on the Rights of the Child

Our loss, their gain? 

Collecting fair taxes from companies is critical. Corporate income tax often makes up one-fifth of tax revenue in Africa, Asia and the Pacific, but almost 40% of multinational profits are shifted each year. 

The problem is that estimating the money countries lose to companies that shift profits to tax havens, and the gains tax havens are making is notoriously tricky when so much tax abuse hides under a veil of secrecy. For our study, we used the only data available on profits shifted from source countries to destination tax havens, originally published by Thomas Tørsløv, Ludvig Wier and Gabriel Zucman. You can take a look around the world of Missing Profits for yourself.  

We focused on Nigeria as an interesting case study and as one of the only African nations with this data. Multinationals shifted an estimated 26% of their profits out of Nigeria 2019, so the country lost over 3% of government revenue. Nearly one-quarter was lost to European tax havens. The largest tax loss, over $200 million, was to the Netherlands. Yet the tax revenue generated in European tax havens as a result of profit shifting from Nigeria was almost negligible: 0.01% of government revenue. 

2:24,000 

Large numbers are meaningless to most of us, so we used the Government Revenue and Development Estimations (GRADE) model to translate how many children live (or die) as a result of profit shifting, how many more (or less) people can access clean drinking water, and how many more (or less) children can finish primary and secondary school. 

The GRADE model works by realistically assuming governments allocate additional revenue in the same way they have over recent decades. It takes into account the quality of governance, and incorporating the impact of additional revenue on governance it accepts that revenue increases take time to show impact. 

The impact of profit shifting varies dramatically between countries. If the Nigerian government had additional revenue equivalent to tax revenue lost from profit shifting

European countries tax corporate profits shifted to their jurisdictions at relatively low rates.  Coverage of essential social and economic rights in European countries is almost universal. Therefore, their populations do not gain much in terms of essential rights from shifted profits from Nigeria. 

Let’s take the Netherlands. If they stopped enabling profit shifting from Nigeria, an additional 24,000 Nigerian children would be able to go to school each day, and this would impact the educational rights of 2 Dutch children. 

How do we fix this? 

Thankfully, this situation is far from inevitable.  

We need national and international action to close the loopholes for profit shifting—double tax treaties need rewriting, tax ‘incentives’ granted to multinationals need carefully evaluating, and governments must require multinational companies wanting to do business in a jurisdiction to publicly disclose their profits, taxes, and assets on a country-by-country basis

Tightening the screws won’t be enough though, because the global tax system needs reprogramming. This is now possible with ongoing negotiations for the UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation. The convention seeks to end tax havens, level the playing field so multinational companies pay their fair share of tax, and create the first truly inclusive global body to manage cross-border tax. This, instead of the current arrangement where the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) decides the international tax rules—an organisation made up almost exclusively of the richest and most powerful nations, often former colonial powers, who are largely responsible for enabling global tax abuse

A finalised UN global tax convention could be voted on by the 193 UN member states in 2027 and then, it’ll be open for signature and ratification.  

Tackling threats to progress 

It’s not all smooth sailing, though. While Nigeria has led the charge with the African Group for these structural reforms to end profit shifting, notorious tax haven countries, including the Netherlands, have hindered progress. Nonetheless, the majority of the world’s nations voted in favour of the convention’s terms of reference last year.  

Now, however, governments need to find ways to increase extra-budgetary support for negotiations because the UN’s liquidity crisis has led to a hiring freeze for the already-agreed-upon secretariat, which is to provide the technical and operational backstop for negotiations.  

Last month, the US delegation, under the new US presidency of Donald Trump, walked out of the UN tax meetings and also ended its support for the rich-country-led tax rule-making at the OECD. Now that the US will not be disrupting negotiations from within, and given its aggressive stance towards countries trying to assert their tax rights, countries that have until now been hesitant about or tried to block enhancing the UN’s role in this area, including the UK, Australia, Japan and European Union members, should seize the opportunity for global solidarity.  

Countries must now decide if they will support the African Group and Global South bloc to collectively exercise their right to tax major multinationals or give in to the US administration’s coercive tactics, as we analysed last month. The lives and well-being of many children around the world depend on it. 

Urgent call to action: UN Member States must step up with financial contributions to advance the UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation

We at the Tax Justice Network are calling on UN Member States to demonstrate their commitment to a more inclusive and effective global tax system by making immediate financial contributions to support the preparations for the intergovernmental negotiations of the UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation (UNFCITC). This landmark convention has the potential to reshape international tax cooperation, ensuring it serves all nations equitably—but only if the UN is equipped with the resources to move forward. 

The UN is currently facing a liquidity crisis, due to a combination of late and unmade payments due from countries in 2024. This has precipitated a hiring freeze that has halted critical recruitment efforts across its offices. As a memo of the UN Controller warns, spending restrictions will constrain the UN’s ability to support and service intergovernmental meetings across duty stations.  

Member States agreed in December 2024 a budget for the secretariat of the UN tax convention negotiations, with a trim staff of around 20 and a total cost of US$6 million – which is very low for such international coordination processes. Without the ability to contract these human resources because of the hiring freeze, the preparatory work risks stalling, threatening the momentum of this historic process. 

For countries with the capacity to contribute, now is the time to prove your commitment to a more inclusive and effective tax cooperation. The UNFCITC represents a once-in-a-generation opportunity to create a truly inclusive framework that addresses the needs of all nations – and a timely chance to demonstrate the value of multilateralism. By providing the necessary financial support, Member States can ensure the UN has the staff and resources to conduct these negotiations effectively, paving the way for fairer tax systems that combat inequality, fund public services, and support sustainable development worldwide. 

We urge governments to act swiftly and provide immediate, extrabudgetary funding to bridge this gap. The world is watching, and the stakes could not be higher. Let’s seize this moment to build a tax system that works for everyone.  


UNHQ2020ConferenceBuildingSecondFloorTrusteeshipCouncilChamberFromAudienceGallery. photo by DanielPenfield (licensed under CC BY 4.0)

Incorporate Gender-Transformative Provisions into the UN Tax Convention

This guest blog for the Global Alliance for Tax Justice is the second in a series exploring the five demands of the 2025 Global Days of Action on Tax Justice for Women’s Rights.


This year, for the first time in history, all UN member states will come together to negotiate a legally binding tax instrument. The UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation represents a historic opportunity to fundamentally change how global tax rules are decided and offers an opportunity to establish tax policy that works for all, including for women. 

Getting to this point in the process is an enormous win already in terms of international tax governance, but it is not time to sit back just yet. Our work has only just begun to ensure that the UN tax negotiations result in a better tax policy that aligns with UN human rights conventions and previous human rights commitments that States have made, including commitments to furthering women’s rights.

Last year while negotiating the terms of reference for the framework convention, several organisations called for gender provisions to be included in the terms of reference. International human rights law was included in different iterations of the draft terms of reference. However at one point, the concept was removed entirely before international human rights law was once again re-incorporated into the text. This version was subsequently approved by the General Assembly in December 2024. As advocates of women’s and girls’ rights we must remain vigilant. As the negotiations begin on the text of the Framework Convention and two early protocols, we need to continue to safeguard and champion the rights of women and girls to ensure they are not forgotten voices in the reforms being developed.

Tax is our social superpower. Tax policy has enormous potential as a transformative instrument for the development and well-being of the population at large and women in particular, but instead the way that tax policy is currently designed and implemented contributes to the persistence of inequalities, including of gender inequality. 

Current estimates by the Tax Justice Network show that countries are losing US$492 billion in tax revenue a year to multinational corporations and wealthy individuals using tax havens to underpay tax. 

When states lack adequate resources to pay for public goods and services, women are disproportionately affected. As states eliminate and underfund social services, the impact of this loss is felt most acutely among low-income populations, among whom women are overrepresented. Additionally, institutions and programmes to promote gender equality and support women’s advancement also lose funding and thus are unable to carry out vital work. Inevitably, women fill in the gaps in caregiving, education, and other family support and care work left behind by dwindling and disappearing social programmes, typically without remuneration. 

Due to a lack of revenue, States will also often increase their reliance on regressive forms of taxation, such as consumption or value-added taxes (VAT) on basic goods and services. These taxes may be easy to administer, but they disproportionately burden women, meaning that women become responsible for a disproportionate amount of the tax burden while receiving fewer benefits from tax-funded services, losing social protections and support, and taking on an increased workload without pay.

The UN Tax Convention represents a window of opportunity to break this cycle by delivering on progressive taxation to ensure that the tax burden is fairly distributed, combating illicit financial flows, and introducing transparency and accountability measures that ensure corporations and wealthy individuals pay what they owe in tax. The convention not only offers a promising moment to reform our broken international tax system, but also presents a once-in-a-century opportunity to set better normative standards for future social, economic, and environmental challenges.

Without clear and targeted gender-responsive considerations, though, gender blind tax policies will fail to address structural inequalities in the organisation of care work and undermine progress toward gender justice by replicating harmful cycles. We demand that the UN Tax Convention is aligned with established UN human rights conventions and includes gender equality considerations in all relevant provisions.

Trump’s walkout fumble is a golden window to push ahead with a UN tax convention

The negotiation of the UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation kicked off this week in New York where all delegates who spoke, from every region of the world, affirmed their country’s commitment to the principles of the UN tax convention. The only objection made came from the United States, which urged delegates to walk out of the room with it.

The opening gambit backfired. No country answered the US delegate’s plea, who proceeded to walk out alone, leaving the US isolated.

UN Member States now have a golden opportunity to prove their stated commitment to the process by addressing, without the US disrupting negotiations, the key issues of the organisational session without delays.

Table of content:

Introduction
Why would a UN tax convention benefit all states? 
What’s wrong with existing standards? Why do we need to change them? 
Is the UNFCITC an instrument that is only of interest to low- and middle-income countries? 
Why the UNFICTC won’t duplicate progress made in other fora?
What will be decided in the organisational session and why is it important?
Why consensus as the sole rule for decision-making is inconvenient for the process?
Unblock the Future (Protocols): Your Pledge to Progress
A call to choose cooperation

Introduction

In international relations, it’s often said that countries have neither friends nor enemies, only interests. With Trump back in the White House, the geopolitical arena is undergoing a seismic shift, compelling nations to rethink what defending their national interest truly entails. The realm of international taxation is caught in this upheaval, and the UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation (UNFCITC) negotiations began with a failed attempt of the US to undermine this process. After delegations from all regions had expressed their interest in engaging constructively in the process, the United States arrogantly walked out of the negotiation arguing that it was not aligned with its priorities and called on other states to do the same.  

Against this backdrop, the stage is set for negotiations this week to be the battleground where countries’ ability to grasp that cooperation is essential to enforcing their sovereign tax policies, and safeguarding their peoples’ interests will be tested.

What’s on the line? Roughly half a trillion dollars a year to be clawed back from cross-border tax abuse, as reported in our State of Tax Justice 2024 report (see the report for  country level estimates). And that’s just what can be clawed back from direct losses – the IMF estimates countries’ indirect losses to cross-border tax abuse are three to six times larger than their direct losses.

The weeks leading up to the start of negotiations had been full of upheaval. Shortly after taking office, Trump issued a memorandum that dealt the death blow to the OECD’s Two Pillars agreement. He also instructed the US Treasury to develop “protective measures” against countries whose tax policies the new administration deems to have an “extraterritorial” or “disproportionate” impact on US-based multinationals. Essentially, this move by the new administration signals a potential retaliation against what was seen as a shared goal of the international community. The goal is to tax cross-border activities based on where real economic activity takes place, irrespective of the location of the multinational’s headquarters, in alignment with the sovereign decisions of individual states, and to address other shared global challenges through cooperation among states.

About a hundred years ago, agreement eventually emerged between the imperial powers at the League of Nations on the need for a set of tax rules that the imperial powers can use to divvy up taxing rights over one another’s companies when they operated within each other’s territory. It took another 90 years for agreement to emerge that these rules should more accurately divvy up taxing rights based on where real economic activity takes place, and must be enjoyed by all countries, not just now former-imperial powers. And another 10 years to arrive at a proposal to implement this new agreement, albeit one that was too weak and too biasedly in favour of rich countries to make a real difference.

It took Trump just a few hours into his second term to do away with all this. Not only did Trump withdraw the US from the OECD’s global minimum tax proposal, he signalled plans to question and take punitive measures against the right of any country to tax American multinational corporations, effectively turning US tax policy back to a pre-League of Nations standing – to a time when companies could only be taxed by the imperial power they came from, regardless of where they were making their money.

In effect, the Trump administration made it clear that it intends to demand that countries cede their tax sovereignty over multinationals operating within their own borders – or face economic siege.

In a context where the US administration appears to view its tax sovereignty as incompatible with that of other states, its withdrawal from the negotiation comes as no surprise. However, the UNFCITC negotiation emerges more clearly as the only viable option for achieving the multilateral agreements on international tax issues that the world urgently requires (see our historic coverage of the path towards this stage of the process in our rolling blog). Faced with a US administration adamant on a might-is-right attitude towards taxing rights, the UNFCITC is essential to protecting the tax sovereignty of all countries.

These negotiations aim to create a more inclusive and equitable framework for international tax cooperation, addressing challenges such as tax evasion, avoidance, and harmful tax practices, effective mutual administrative assistance in tax matters, the alignment of international tax cooperation with the economic, social and environmental dimensions of sustainable development, and a fair allocation of taxing rights, which are particularly pressing for developing nations but will reap benefits for all countries (see our analysis on the Terms of Reference adopted by the General Assembly in November 2024 that will guide these negotiations).

Countries such as the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and members of the European Union, which have so far been hesitant to fully support these negotiations, now face a critical choice. They must decide whether to work constructively with the African Group and the Global South bloc of countries, which have been instrumental in advancing this process, or to abandon any hope of exercising their taxing rights over major multinationals for at least another four years, effectively yielding to the coercive tactics of the US administration (see an analysis of the fallacies used by UN Tax talk detractors and how to counter them).

Trump’s actions over the past few weeks have put the US’s cards on the table for these hesitant countries – and their people – to openly see. While previous US presidents finessed a double game, promising to abide by the OECD outcomes they controlled but never doing so, Trump has clumsily given the game away by pulling the plug on the OECD process, walking out of the most important tax negotiations of our lifetime, and threatening tax war.

This double game didn’t just benefit the US, it allowed the governments of OECD countries to save face in front of their people, publicly feigning an equal footing with the US on OECD decisions that impacted tax policy at home. Trump has now ended the façade, and called out other OECD members’ new clothes.

He has made it clear that there is no fair negotiation table at which the US will sit, so countries should have no qualms about pressing on with negotiations at the UN without the US. The early US withdrawal shows that this is a position irrespective of the dynamics of the negotiations – in fact, in spite of parties beginning to show constructive flexibility in order to reach agreements.

This is a spectacular own goal for the US. It is a movement that negatively affects the interests of its own people and US multinationals. The impossibility for states to adopt common rules for multinationals, including those headquartered in the US, to pay taxes where their economic activities take place would mean, in practice, the surrender of state sovereignty. And without the OECD double game to save face, governments that have so far been hesitant to the UNFCITC will not be able to hide this surrender of sovereignty. The choice is clear, both to governments and their people: defend your tax sovereignty by cooperating at the UN or raise the white flag to the new bully.

It’s time for all countries to work together and make the most of Trump’s own goal.

Why would a UNFCITC benefit all states? 

The lack of effective and inclusive international tax cooperation harms all nations. Despite differing views on the desirable distribution of costs and benefits of cooperation on tax matters, all countries and their citizens —including the US — would benefit more from full cooperation than from the limitations of the current standards. States have opted for cooperation on tax issues because, in today’s global economy, enforcing their own sovereign decisions on how to tax cross-border activity necessitates collaboration with other countries. The advantages of such cooperation would be significantly amplified if a multilateral tax treaty fit for present and future challenges were ratified by the vast majority of United Nations member states, a feat not yet accomplished by any other fora. The challenge lies in crafting an international agreement that is acceptable to as many parties as possible, thereby maximising the overall benefits of cooperation. 

What’s wrong with existing standards? Why do we need to change them? 

While significant strides have been made in international tax cooperation over the last decade, the current standards fall short of being inclusive and effective, as highlighted in the UN Secretary-General’s 2023 report. This has resulted in an asymmetric cooperation landscape, which is less beneficial compared to what fully inclusive and effective cooperation could achieve.

For example, an information exchange mechanism would yield greater benefits if all UN member countries participated. The exclusion of even a single member diminishes the accessible information and the potential for exchanges among all participants. When a large group is excluded, the scope of the mechanism for any participating country is significantly narrowed and the legitimacy and equity of the mechanism left open to question. Currently, 125 countries are signatories to the CRS Multilateral Competent Authority Agreement on Automatic Exchange of Information, but this falls short of the 193 UN Member States. Moreover, requirements like the immediate duty to reciprocate can pose significant barriers for countries with limited capacities, often those in greatest need of the benefits from international tax cooperation. The exclusion of these countries not only disadvantages them but also reduces the overall potential benefits for countries already participating under the current framework. 

Although several multilateral tax agreements exist, none encompass all nations globally. The UNFCITC presents an opportunity to establish universal standards that are adaptable to the varying capabilities of different countries, thereby maximising the benefits of international tax cooperation. 

Is the UNFCITC an instrument that is only of interest to low- and middle-income countries? 

The UNFCITC is often viewed as advantageous for countries in the Global South, but it presents substantial opportunities for all nations genuinely committed to a fully inclusive and effective international tax cooperation. For example, Australia, with its recently adopted world-leading standard for public country-by-country reporting, could leverage the UNFCITC to push for global adoption of these practices, despite its opposition to the UN resolutions that opened the door for the negotiation of this instrument.  

Similarly, most EU countries, which have struggled with the need for unanimity in tax decisions within the bloc, could collaborate with nations from different regions to push forward tax cooperation on a global level through the UNFCITC. Here, dissenters could voice their opposition but wouldn’t have veto power, allowing for broader agreement while giving countries the option to opt out of specific protocols. 

Even the United States, ironically, might find that the scenario of widely accepted UNFCITC offers stable, uniform global tax rules beneficial for its companies. Currently, the US has withdrawn from these negotiations with a short-sighted view of its national interest, citing the objectives of the instrument as overreaching and potentially detrimental to all nations. However, it may be the case that in the future, the US corporate sector might pressure the administration to re-enter negotiations to safeguard their interests.

The proliferation of multiple, parallel international tax regimes would elevate compliance costs and complexity for companies, thereby highlighting the advantages of a unified framework. Whether the US adheres to its announced withdrawal of the negotiations or reconsiders its stance—as it has with unilateral recent tariff decisions against several countries in the past few days—it might come to appreciate the value of such an agreement. This would help in averting a patchwork of unilateral tax policies that could otherwise complicate international business operations.

This potential future scenario is reminiscent of the OECD’s Common Reporting Standard (CRS), which only gained traction after the US unilaterally implemented the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA), compelling other countries to adopt automatic information exchange. This action followed a decade after the EU had already promoted a multilateral approach with its own system for internal information exchange. That progress in harmonising international cooperation measures could take place along a similar path once the UNFCITC enters into force cannot be ruled out at this stage.

Why won’t the UNFICTC duplicate progress made in other fora?  

As the crisis over the implementation of the OECD’s Two Pillar agreement deepens, the objection that the UNFCITC might duplicate work from other fora becomes increasingly baseless. In fact, the UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation (UNFICTC) is emerging as a potent multilateral instrument to truly fulfil the original mandate given to the OECD by the G20, which the Two Pillars agreements, even if they had been universally adopted, would have fallen far short of due to their failed design. 

For the coherence of the governance system created by UNFCITC, it is necessary that the standards adopted are compatible with the framework that is agreed in an inclusive manner in the context of a truly universal forum. This alignment is crucial to prevent fragmentation. While this approach does not dismiss the progress made in specific areas to date, it does mean that negotiations aren’t starting anew. Instead, countries should evaluate which standards best fit within the new framework, taking elements from other fora which can be validated through a truly inclusive and effective universal system.  

Some states have voiced concerns about starting from scratch in a new negotiation forum, especially when discussions on similar issues within the OECD have been ongoing for years. However, paragraph 22 of the Terms of Reference addresses these concerns by mandating that the intergovernmental negotiating committee should consider work from other forums, explore synergies, and leverage existing tools, expertise, and strengths from various international, regional, and local tax cooperation entities.

Together with the inclusion of the principle of human rights and several other elements that were modified with respect to the initial versions of the zero draft of the terms of reference, these changes show that, contrary to the possible allegation by rich OECD countries, the views of the different states participating in the process have been included in the decisions made by the Ad Hoc Committee that drafted the terms of reference. Unlike what has happened in the OECD’s closed-door negotiations, the ability for anyone in the world to follow these public negotiations provides the information necessary to monitor and scrutinise the work of the chair or the bureau and thus provides a greater guarantee of inclusiveness and transparency for all states.

What will be decided in the organisational session and why is it important?

During organisational sessions of UN conventions, one can expect decisions that lay the groundwork for the work of the Ad Hoc Committee that will draft the instrument. These sessions typically involve setting the agenda for future meetings, which outlines the topics to be discussed. Key procedural rules are established, including how decisions will be made, and the selection of leadership roles like chairs, bureau members and rapporteurs. The modalities for stakeholder involvement, including how NGOs, private sectors, and civil societies can contribute, are also decided upon. Logistical arrangements, like the scheduling and location of subsequent meetings, are confirmed. Moreover, these sessions often address the review or adoption of key initial decisions that will set the tone for future negotiations. These decisions ensure that the convention operates smoothly, with clarity and direction, facilitating global dialogue and action on the convention’s core issues.

The organisational session of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on the United Nations Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation, scheduled from 3-6 February 2025, has focused on several critical discussions (see adopted agenda here). The session began with the election of officers as per rule 103 of the General Assembly’s rules of procedure, where the Committee will elect a Chair, 18 Vice-Chairs, and a Rapporteur, ensuring equitable geographical representation and gender balance as outlined in paragraph 6 of resolution 79/235. Following this, the Committee proceeded to adopt the agenda, in line with rule 99 of the rules of procedure, adopting programme of work as prepared according to Assembly resolution 79/235.

Other key decisions include the establishment of the negotiation modalities for the coming years, particularly emphasising the decision-making processes of the negotiating committee. Another pivotal discussion will involve the selection of the second early protocol to be negotiated alongside the convention until 2027. Options for this protocol include dispute resolution and prevention, addressing illicit financial flows, and the taxation of high-net-worth individuals, with the first protocol already set to tackle the taxation of income from cross-border services in a digital and globalised economy.

Why consensus as the sole rule for decision-making is inconvenient for the process? 

Decision-making procedures in the United Nations are consensus-oriented, but do not exclude the possibility of majority voting when time requires it and the possibility of super-majority votes for the most important decisions. The rules of procedure of the subsidiary bodies of the General Assembly are well established and experience shows that it is not appropriate to grant any country veto power, which is what happens when consensus is adopted as the sole rule for decision-making. The US withdrawal from the negotiations clearly demonstrates why veto power may be at odds with the mandate of the Intergovernmental Committee. Under a consensus rule, the threat of a veto means that all states would have to give disproportionate weight to the demands of one state  to prevent that country from blocking the entire process, which is not only unfair but may make it impossible to fulfil the mandate of the Intergovernmental Committee within the set period. The decision to operate so far under the rules of the General Assembly has been a wise choice.

While some UN Conventions have indeed been adopted by consensus, this has predominantly occurred during significant political gatherings, such as the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. Here, landmark conventions like the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), and later in similar contexts, the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), were all adopted by consensus. However, when it comes to Ad Hoc Committees or other subsidiary bodies of the General Assembly, the experience has been markedly different.  

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) provides a pertinent example. Despite starting with the aim of achieving consensus, the negotiations for UNCLOS were fraught with disagreements, particularly over issues like the deep seabed and economic zones. Ultimately, after years of negotiation, when consensus could not be reached at the Third United Nations Conference on the Law of the Sea, the convention was adopted by a recorded vote in 1982, reflecting the failure of consensus as a decision-making mechanism in this context. 

Other examples are also illustrative in this regard. For instance, the Ad Hoc Committee for the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) attempted to adopt the treaty by consensus in 2013 but failed due to objections from a few states, leading to the treaty’s adoption through a vote in the General Assembly. Similarly, the Ad Hoc Committee on Measures to Eliminate International Terrorism has often struggled with consensus to adopt a Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (CCIT), frequently resorting to alternative decision-making mechanisms. Another example of the failure to reach consensus at UN bodies is evident in the ongoing discussions surrounding the Convention on the Rights of Older Persons. Despite years of debate within the Open-Ended Working Group on Ageing, established in 2010 to strengthen the protection of older persons’ rights, there has been no agreement on creating a new, legally binding international instrument.

More recently, the experience of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on Plastic Pollution illustrates similar challenges. This committee, tasked with developing an international legally binding instrument on plastic pollution, has faced significant hurdles in achieving consensus among member states. The negotiations, ongoing with sessions from 2022 to 2024, have shown that while there is a common goal to address plastic pollution, the diversity of interests, particularly around production, waste management, and binding versus voluntary measures, has made consensus elusive. Despite the ambition to conclude by the end of 2024, the process has seen multiple sessions where consensus was not achieved on key elements, suggesting that if a final agreement is reached, it might require reverting to majority voting or other decision-making methods. 

Some countries have suggested that since taxation is a matter that touches on the core of state sovereignty, there can be no rule other than consensus. However, it should be stressed that with the adoption of the established rules of the General Assembly and its subsidiary bodies, which allow for decision-making by simple majority, no country will lose the sovereign prerogative to decide whether to ratify the Framework Convention. The final word on whether to keep engaged in the negotiations, or to ratify the instrument resulting from the process, will remain being a sovereign decision of each state.

Unblock the Future (Protocols): Your Pledge to Progress

In the negotiations surrounding the UNFCITC there is a clear mandate for the Intergovernmental Committee to deliver results within the next three years. This urgency necessitates prompt decision-making during the organisational session, including the selection of the second protocol without unnecessary delays. One potential tactic to obstruct progress could involve arguing that procedural decisions require further clarity on substantive issues. However, this is a misstep since organisational sessions are specifically designed to establish the basic operational framework for later substantive discussions. These sessions are not meant to define the scope or content of specific thematic areas or agree on the meaning of some terms but rather to set the stage for state members to have these conversations in the next sessions. The Secretariat has initiated the good practice of providing background documents with the necessary elements for states to make informed decisions (as in the case of the potential scope of the issues that the second protocol may cover). This strengthens confidence in the process and shows that the United Nations is an appropriate forum to properly conduct these negotiations. Thus, the focus during the organisational session should be on procedural clarity —such as selecting the subject matter of the second early protocol in the terms that the Terms of Reference set— to facilitate the substantive work ahead.

A call to choose cooperation

States are urged to engage constructively in the negotiations for the UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation, adhering to the principles of negotiating in good faith. This means having a clear and well-supported position, being open to finding solutions rather than adopting an inflexible stance and moving forward without unnecessarily revisiting previously settled issues. It involves a readiness to compromise and support outcomes where they have had significant influence and avoiding tactics to obstruct progress. Such conduct not only upholds a country’s image but is crucial for establishing trust among nations. In a world that desperately needs multilateral solutions, choosing cooperation is not just a choice—it’s the right choice.

Image credit: Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons