2025: The year tax justice became part of the world’s problem-solving infrastructure

As 2025 draws to a close, tax justice is no longer just a political demand. It has become part of the core problem-solving infrastructure that governments and movements rely on to confront climate breakdown, debt distress, inequality and democratic strain. From climate finance and public services to gendered austerity and the fight for accountability, tax justice now sits at the centre of the defining challenges of our time.

This was also the year a second Trump administration sought to roll back the global minimum tax and retreat from multilateral cooperation, even as countries at the United Nations continued negotiating a new framework convention on international tax cooperation. At the same time, the climate emergency accelerated, while many governments still failed to resource a just transition at the scale required.

Amid these pressures, 2025 was marked by a historic breakthrough: for the first time ever, every government sat at the same negotiating table to begin shaping global tax rules through a UN convention, a milestone a century in the making.

Within this shifting global context, the tax justice movement, and the Tax Justice Network in particular, made important strides: deepening our data and research, connecting climate and tax justice more firmly, and supporting allies to defend human rights in the face of secrecy and tax abuse.

Here are some of the key moments that defined our work in 2025.

1. Data that shifts power

In 2025 we significantly expanded both the quality and reach of our research.

A central focus was our shift towards tax administrative data as a core pillar of our evidence base. We continued our collaborations with tax authorities in Nigeria, Uganda, Slovakia and Czechia, and began new work in South Africa, Kenya, Greece, Ghana, Portugal, Norway, Ethiopia, Zambia and Rwanda. These partnerships are helping tax administrations use their own micro-data to identify profit shifting, illicit financial flows and tax abuse, and to design more effective responses.

Building on this experience, we have been preparing to launch Admin Data for Tax Justice, a new initiative that will bring together researchers and tax authorities to codify best practice on secure-room access, data preparation and joint analytical work. The initiative will have its own website, admindata.taxjustice.net, including a searchable database of research projects that use administrative data to study tax abuse. An in-person workshop in Prague in December kicks off a series of events planned for 2026 to share lessons across countries.

We also made substantial progress in developing methods to quantify profit shifting and offshore-related illicit financial flows using micro-level datasets. New analyses this year drew on country by country reporting data, examined the effects of transparency reforms, and explored how recent measures such as windfall taxes and wealth taxes change behaviour.

These methodological advances will feed into an updated Illicit Financial Flows Tracker to be launched in 2026. They already strengthened our ability to provide independent, data-driven assessments of tax abuse practices and to support reform proposals at UN and EU level.

In November, we published the State of Tax Justice 2025, our annual assessment of how much tax revenue countries lose each year due to multinational corporations and wealthy individuals using tax havens to underpay tax. This year’s report also highlights the harmful impacts of keeping country by country reporting data out of the public eye, at a time when public scrutiny is more important than ever.

2. Beneficial ownership and the fight over secrecy

Beneficial ownership transparency remained a core battleground in 2025.

Early in the year we published Asset beneficial ownership – Enforcing wealth tax and other positive spillover effects, which sets out what a robust approach to beneficial ownership of assets would look like. The report explains how asset-level beneficial ownership rules, going beyond companies alone, are critical to enforcing wealth taxes and supporting asset recovery. The approach aligns with the IMF’s 2025 work on sectoral beneficial ownership, which we reviewed. Both papers were presented at a panel co-organised by the Tax Justice Network during the Civil Society Public Forum at the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings.

The Financial Secrecy Index 2025 update captured the sharp deterioration in public access to beneficial ownership information following the 2022 European Court of Justice ruling that restricted public access to registers. Our assessment tracks where governments are closing off transparency and where they are still moving ahead, despite legal and political pushback.

3. Using secrecy data to tackle financial crime

This year also showed how tax justice data is becoming part of the core toolkit for regulators, investigators and compliance professionals.

New research published in May demonstrated how Financial Secrecy Index risk scores can be combined with minimal transaction data to build functional, transaction-level risk scores for illicit financial flows. We applied this Financial Secrecy Index-based scoring to leaked suspicious transaction reports revealed in the FinCEN Files investigation to show the added value of robust geographic risk mapping on a large set of real-world transactions. The work features as a chapter in the final book from the EU-funded TRACE project, which over four years developed new technologies for financial crime investigations.

The same methodology can help financial intelligence units and law enforcement prioritise large backlogs of suspicious transaction reports by turning heterogeneous data into a ranked list of higher-risk cases.

Major banks, financial technology firms and compliance teams are increasingly integrating Financial Secrecy Index indicators and other Tax Justice Network data into their country risk classifications, automated anti-money-laundering and counter-terrorist financing models, and tax evasion risk flags. Transactions and clients linked to high-secrecy jurisdictions are being more systematically scored and escalated, and our data is reportedly used in customer due-diligence checks.

The growing interest in our risk data from criminology experts and public authorities was highlighted at the launch of the 2025–26 scientific season at the International Centre for Comparative Criminology in Montréal, where practical uses of our data in investigative work were presented. Our geographic risk methodologies were also presented in November to the European Commission’s directorate responsible for financial stability and financial regulation (DG FISMA), followed by further sessions with anti-money laundering practitioner audiences in Germany. 

Beyond individual institutions, our Financial Secrecy Index scores now feed into a range of widely used global risk assessment tools, including the Basel index on anti-money laundering risks (Basel AML Index), the Risk-Informed Financial Flows tool (RIFF), and the Global Risk Assessment system (GRAS). These tools guide both supervisory risk assessments and private-sector compliance processes and help embed tax justice indicators in the wider ecosystem that works to combat financial crime.

4. Exposing corporate tax havenry

The Corporate Tax Haven Index remained central to our work on corporate tax abuse.

The latest index findings show that countries are giving multinational corporations an average 63 per cent tax discount on profits generated from intellectual property. That is proportionally equivalent to allowing workers to pay no income tax for seven months of the year.

Countries offering these intellectual property tax breaks are giving away at least US$29 billion of their own tax revenue each year. They also cost other countries around US$84 billion in annual tax losses as multinationals respond to the discount by shifting profits out of the countries where they carry out real economic activity.

We also renewed our website this year, making it easier for journalists, policymakers and campaigners to explore the Corporate Tax Haven Index, the Financial Secrecy Index and other tools, and to connect the dots between corporate tax abuse, secrecy and public underfunding.

5. Reasserting tax sovereignty for climate justice

2025 cemented the link between tax justice and climate justice in both research and advocacy.

Our report Reclaiming tax sovereignty to transform global climate finance set out how countries can use fair taxing rights, progressive tax measures and stronger cooperation to raise at least US$1.3 trillion a year in climate finance. The report received strong endorsement across movements and wide media uptake, including at COP30 in Belém.

Building on this, we co-organised A Climate for Change: Towards Just Taxation for Climate Finance, a two-day conference in October hosted by the University of Campinas (UNICAMP) in Campinas, Brazil. The event took place just weeks before COP30 and during the first year of negotiations towards a UN tax convention, at a moment when both climate and tax systems are under intense pressure.

More than 250 delegates from advocacy, policy, research and grassroots organisations joined the conference in person, with many more online. Together they explored why connecting climate and tax is essential for a just transition and how to design climate finance tools that are grounded in equity and tax justice.

Keynotes and panels featured voices from across regions and disciplines, including Rodrigo Orair, Director of the Extraordinary Secretariat for Tax Reform at Brazil’s Ministry of Finance; Elisa Morgera, UN Special Rapporteur on Climate Change and Human Rights; José Antonio Ocampo, Chair of the UN Committee for Development Policy and Chair of ICRICT; and Sabrina Fernandes, Head of Research at the Alameda Institute and Senior Research Advisor at Oxford University’s TIDE Centre. All conference papers and videos are available online and will continue to inform joint work across the tax and climate movements.

6. A century in the making: the historic breakthrough for global tax justice

2025 marked the biggest breakthrough in the history of tax justice: for the first time ever, every country in the world sat at the same table to negotiate international tax rules. This moment has been a century in the making, and represents a direct reversal of the exclusionary processes that shaped today’s tax architecture.

It follows a long lineage of turning points: the League of Nations allowing imperial powers to design global rules; the creation of the OECD to prevent UN leadership on tax; the Zedillo report’s call for a globally inclusive tax body; and two decades of civil society advocacy — including the Tax Justice Network’s early insistence that theUN was the only legitimate forum for global tax rule-setting. The African Union and UN Economic Commission for Africa’s High Level Panel on Illicit Financial Flows reaffirmed this need, and African finance ministers’ call in 2022 pushed the demand into the UN General Assembly process.

Nothing is guaranteed. The first year of negotiations has moved quickly, and the next eighteen months will determine the future of international tax rules. This opportunity may not come again for generations.

One factor shaping the talks is the self-imposed absence of the United States. The State of Tax Justice 2025 shows that US multinationals are now the most aggressive tax abusers globally, while the country sits at the top of the Financial Secrecy Index. Threats of retaliation against governments seeking fair taxation have clarified the choice: either move forward collectively through a UN convention, or allow a narrow group of economic powers to continue dictating the rules.

7. Defending human rights and shaping the UN tax convention

Throughout 2025, we worked with partners across the tax justice, climate and human rights movements to shape a unified civil society position on the UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation.

We contributed presentations and substantive input to coordination spaces for the climate and human rights movements, including an event hosted by the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights in Geneva in July, and regular calls with climate–tax allies.

The Tax Justice Network submitted detailed contributions to each of the three UN workstreams on the framework convention in August (see Workstream 1, Workstream 2 and Workstream 3), with further submissions to workstreams 1 and 3 to be made accessible on the UN DESA website. To support broader engagement, we also developed a dedicated UN tax convention hub where civil society organisations, policymakers and the wider public can follow the development of the convention, explore the substantive issues under negotiation, and track analysis as intergovernmental discussions evolve.

Alongside this, we continued to foreground the human rights impacts of tax abuse and governance failures. We developed a range of tools and resources to strengthen understanding of the links between tax, rights and accountability, including a video and briefing exploring how multinational corporations’ tax practices affect human rights. We also contributed to reports from the Global Initiative for Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (GI-ESCR) that examine the human rights impacts of tax abuse, and through the TaxEd Alliance we deepened our collaboration on financing education.

2025 was also a year of introspection for the Tax Justice Network. As a network founded in the global North, we invited leading thinkers to challenge us on post-colonial power, reparations and our own role in the global movement. We also brought a tax justice lens, belatedly, to the context of the genocide against Palestinians.

8. Podcasts that tell the stories behind the numbers

Our podcast family expanded its reach and relevance in 2025, bringing tax justice debates into living rooms, classrooms and commute playlists around the world.

Across all shows, one key theme was the regional fallout from President Trump’s tariffs, the US withdrawal from the OECD global minimum tax deal and the formal announcement that the US would no longer participate in UN negotiations for a new global tax convention. Producers examined what these decisions mean for tax sovereignty, multilateralism and the global balance of power.

On The Taxcast (our English-language show), highlights included:

In 2025 we also ran a six-part monthly series, Unequal India Decoded, which:

Looking ahead, Series Two of our weekly podcast The Corruption Diaries will start in 2026. This time we follow the story of a music lover who ran a record label, toured with bands like Porcupine Tree, and then unexpectedly became a campaigner taking on tax dodgers and the authorities in the UK from his garden shed. Like all our podcasts, it is available wherever you get your podcasts.

Our regional language podcasts continued to grow:

Across all languages, our podcasts continue to show that tax justice is not just about numbers. It is about power, democracy and the everyday lives behind the statistics.

9.  Strengthening the infrastructure that powers our data 

With pro bono legal support through TrustLaw at the Thomson Reuters Foundation and in partnership with an exceptional lawyer, we strengthened and modernised our data licensing framework. The updated system provides clearer terms and improved consistency. It also offers more robust protections for everyone who uses our data for research, media work or anti-money-laundering and risk-analysis purposes. These improvements support the long-term sustainability of the Tax Justice Network’s Data Portal.

We also completed the transition to rolling update cycles for all our indices. These smaller and more frequent releases help build momentum around our research outputs. They also provide a regularly updated resource for everyone who relies on our data, including students, researchers, journalists writing on tax justice, and private companies and international institutions working on risk profiling.

Looking ahead: building the future we need

2025 was a turbulent year for tax and climate governance, it was also a year in which the tax justice movement showed its ability to adapt and lead. It was a year marked not only by historic breakthroughs in global tax cooperation, but also by rising authoritarianism, democratic backsliding and horrific levels of violence against civilian populations. These overlapping crises remind us that tax, power and accountability are inseparable from wider struggles for justice.

In this context, the work of the Tax Justice Network took on new urgency. Our advances in data and methodology were not just technical achievements. They were part of a wider effort to support governments and communities to uncover illicit flows, challenge secrecy and strengthen public oversight. At the same time, our alliances across climate, education and human rights movements helped to push the debate toward systemic change and widen the circle of actors shaping tax justice.

The coming negotiations on the UN tax convention, unfolding amid major shifts in global politics and finance, will test governments’ willingness to cooperate. They also present a genuine opportunity to secure the structural reforms that movements have demanded for decades.

We will keep working with partners around the world to build tax systems that serve the public interest, knowing that tax remains one of our strongest social superpowers.

See you in 2026.



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Bled dry: The gendered impact of tax abuse, illicit financial flows and debt in Africa

This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action. At the time, the Beijing Platform was considered the most progressive blueprint for advancing gender equality. Subsequently, the world set specific global targets for gender equality with the Millennium Development Goals in 2000 and the Sustainable Development Goals in 2015. It felt like the world would continue to move towards progressively realizing greater gender equality so that women and girls in all their diversity could reach their full potential and enjoy the full spectrum of their human rights, unburdened by discrimination. Unfortunately, 2025 paints a bleaker picture than the one envisioned 30 years ago. According to UN Women, it would take 123 more years to close the gender gap at the current rate of progress.

The Alternative Information Development Center, the Center for Economic and Social Rights, and the Tax Justice Network have launched a paper today that shows how the global financial architecture affects women and girls, exacerbating the feminisation of poverty and further entrenching systemic gendered inequalities. In Bled Dry: How tax abuse, illicit financial flows and debt affect women and girls in Africa, we explore how tax abuse and illicit financial flows, and the resulting loss of public revenue, have pushed states towards regressive tax policies, debt, and austerity measures.

Tax justice is gender justice. Women and girls in all their diversity bear the brunt of the adverse effects of illicit financial flows, debt and austerity, especially on the African continent. Africa loses about US$88 billion annually in illicit financial flows, US$7.5 billion in tax revenues to multinational corporate profit shifting and offshore wealth, and currently owes US$1.16 trillion in debt. Africa spends more on debt servicing than on health or education. Illicit financial flows rob states of their ability to mobilise the maximum available resources to ensure that human rights, including women’s rights, are realised. When the state does not provide healthcare, women take care of the sick; when education is not affordable or accessible, women care for children who should be in school; when the state fails to provide clean water and energy, women travel as far as needed to fetch water and firewood.

Current neoliberal global economic policies uphold colonial models of extraction and deepen inequalities. For women and girls, this leads to the feminisation of poverty, higher maternal mortality rates, low school enrolment and early marriages, and pushes women into unpaid care work and informal employment. These issues affect women and girls across their lifetimes, from birth to adulthood. Currently, 62.8 per cent of the world’s poorest women and girls reside in sub-Saharan Africa, and African women spend significantly more time engaged in unpaid and domestic work compared to men across the continent.

The ongoing negotiations around the UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation provide a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for reform of the global tax system. Therefore, it is imperative for the African Group of negotiators and Global South countries to engage boldly in the negotiation process, demanding more equitable and gender-responsive global tax systems. Global tax norms, institutional frameworks and practices must better enable African and Global South countries to maximise resource mobilisation for the good of people and planet, in line with existing obligations outlined in the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women (CEDAW), the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (ICESCR), the Beijing Declaration and Platform of Action and the Sevilla Compromise, among others.

On the eve of Human Rights Day (2025), we demand global economic governance and policy reform that aligns international debt, tax, finance and investment policies with human rights principles. This reform must be genuinely gender-transformative and responsive to the needs of people and planet. It is time for governments to move beyond rhetoric and create a more equitable and inclusive global financial architecture grounded in the fair allocation of taxing rights.

Photo by David Geneugelijk, sourced from Unsplash.



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Indicator deep dive: ‘patent box regimes’ 

The Tax Justice Network updated its Corporate Tax Haven Index today with a new rolling batch. The index ranks countries by evaluating how much wiggle room for corporate tax abuse their laws provide and by monitoring how much financial activity conducted by multinational corporations enters and exits the countries. Laws are evaluated against 18 indicators. In this batch update, we focused on four of the indicators from the indicator group on ‘loopholes and exemptions

In this blog, we’ll do a deep dive into one of these indicators: the ‘patent box regimes’ indicator.

Why penalise patent box regimes on the Index?

A patent box (often also called an intellectual property (IP) box or innovation box) is a corporate tax regime that allows companies to pay a significantly lower tax rate for a long term on income derived from patents and other qualifying IP.

A patent box is a profit-based tax incentive. At the Tax Justice Network, we generally believe that cost-based tax incentives should be preferred over profit-based incentives. Cost-based incentives (also known as expenditure-based incentives) reduce a company’s tax liability by allowing it to deduct investment costs from their taxable income faster or in greater amounts than the standard rules allow. Profit-based incentives, on the other hand, reduce the tax an investor pays on the profits their investment generates. These incentives reward commercial success and profitability, often creating windfall profits. Profit-based incentives also come with limited revenue cost predictability for government. In the case of cost-based incentives, the cost to governments is capped by the amount of investment.

Patent boxes are prime examples of profit-based tax incentives to stimulate Research & Development (R&D). In line with our general view described above, we however think cost-based R&D incentives like accelerated depreciation, investment tax credits and super-deductions are superior policies. For this reason, the indicator on patent box regime gives countries that have adopted a patent box (or a patent box like regime, as explained below) the maximum ‘haven score’ of 100.

Modifying the OECD’s nexus approach

Under the Indicator, countries that have a patent box but have added a ‘nexus constraint’ receive a slightly improved score of 90, compared to the score of 100 for a patent box without nexus constraint. The assessment of the nexus constraint is based on the OECD’s work under BEPS Action 5 on harmful tax practices. Under the OECD’s nexus approach, the royalty income derived from the IP can only benefit from a patent box regime in proportion to the share of qualifying R&D expenses (uplifted by 30%) on the total of the company’s expenses.

For example, a pharmaceutical company has developed a new drug and generates $1000 in profits from this drug. The company applies to benefit from the local patent box regime which offers a 10% rate on profits instead of the standard 25% rate of corporate tax. The patent box includes the OECD nexus constraint rule. To develop the drug, the company has spent $60 on in-house research (qualifying R&D expenses in light of the nexus constraint) and $100 on  acquiring external IP rights (not-qualifying expense). As a result, the ratio of qualifying expenses is $60/$100. Because of the uplift, $60 is increased by 30%, meaning that the final ratio is $78/$100. As a result, because of the nexus constraint, only 78% of the company’s $1000 profits can benefit from the preferential rate of 10% under the patent box.

The nexus constraint certainly limits the benefit of the patent box, but it does not prevent a situation where the bulk of qualifying profits already include significant tax benefits. In many countries, the application of the benefit is unrestricted in time, turning the benefit into a perpetual windfall gain. For this reason, we take into account the presence of the nexus constraint in countries’ patent box regimes, but we give it only a small reward.

To assess whether countries apply a nexus constraint to their patent box regimes, we rely mostly on the OECD’s Forum on Harmful Tax Practices (FHTP) peer reviews. But we also do a bit more digging. For some countries, the FHTP concludes that the nexus approach is in place, but the actual implementation of the nexus rules is riddled with loopholes. In Belgium, for example, the law implementing the innovation box includes the OECD’s nexus approach but adds that the proportion of qualifying income can be extended beyond the nexus limit if there is proof of exceptional circumstances which make it so that the additional value of the IP developing company is higher than the standard ratio. For our purposes, this kind of discretionary loophole (to define what are exceptional circumstances?) is sufficient to conclude that the nexus constraint has not been implemented correctly, even if the FHTP determines otherwise.

Patent box: (not really) a must for innovation?

Among the OECD countries that figure in the Corporate Tax Haven Index, about 65% have a patent box or a similar measure in place that exempts certain types of royalty income. Interestingly, on average, OECD countries with patent boxes rank about 9 places higher on the index than OECD countries without patent boxes or similar regimes.

These findings show two things. First, there is a clear pattern where OECD countries that embrace a patent box regime also tend to adopt other policies we consider to be prone to corporate tax abuse in the index. This clearly shows if we compare the average difference in haven score of OECD countries with patent boxes (average score of 63.4) and OECD countries without patent boxes (average score of 52). The haven score is the Index’ qualitative component, based on the performance of countries’ legal frameworks across all indicators (for more details, see the Index methodology). Adoption of a patent box generates a difference of 2.7 in haven score as compared to a country without a patent box. In that sense, the adoption of a patent box by an OECD country – which only accounts for a tiny fraction of the haven score – seems to be a good predictor for this country to have a bad overall score and thus of the country operating as a corporate tax haven.

Second, unlike what is often claimed in patent box countries, the group of OECD countries without patent boxes, show that the adoption of such a regime is not a prerequisite for a country to create a tax environment that incentivises innovation. Denmark, for example, has preferred to apply a super deduction for qualifying R&D expenses of up to 110%. Loss-making businesses can apply for a payment equal to the tax value of the negative income related to R&D. Instead of a patent box, Germany and Italy, too, grant innovators a tax credit of up to 25% and 20%, respectively, for qualifying R&D costs. The fact that Denmark, Germany and Italy are important hubs of innovation in the European region, indicates that the use of patent boxes is not necessary for fostering a climate for innovation. .

Patent box countries often defend their patent box regime by claiming that it not only incentivises local R&D but also prevents IP flight. Unlike in the case of cost-based R&D incentives, patent boxes are said to prevent the move of patents and other IP held by local companies to offshore companies of the same group once costs have been recuperated to benefit from other beneficial regimes elsewhere. It is true that in a globalised economy, it is relatively easy for multinationals to move intangible assets (IP) to low-tax jurisdictions. It is also true that under a patent box, companies have less of an incentive to move IP to low-tax jurisdictions as the patent box country itself has turned into one for income derived from the IP. However, since the adoption of the so-called DEMPE rules in transfer pricing (See Chapter VI of the OECD Transfer Pricing Guidelines), the justification of patent boxes as the only way to prevent IP flight has lost much of its validity. Under these new transfer pricing rules, legal ownership has largely become irrelevant for-profit allocation under IP. Instead, tax authorities now look at which group company does or has done the work on (D)evelopment, (E)nhancement, (M)aintanance, (P)rotection, and (E)xploitation of the patents and other IP in question. This means that countries can safely rely on cost-based incentive regimes without fearing future profits under the locally subsidised IP will be shifted to other group companies in other countries. Even if the ownership of the IP is moved to another group company and that group company will derive the income generated by the IP, the DEMPE rules will force the multinational to recognise that the IP was developed elsewhere in the group and adequate profit adjustment between the relevant companies will have to be made.

Patent box-like regimes: no-corporate-tax regimes and territorial tax regimes

Finally, our research reveals that a number of non-OECD jurisdictions have less visible but nonetheless aggressive tax policies in place to incentivise profit shifting through the hosting of IP in a local group company. Especially for externally acquired IP, these strategies remain relevant: they allow multinationals to buy existing patents and other protected immovable assets and locate them strategically in group companies in those countries where future royalty income is left untaxed. One such policy is for countries to exempt foreign income (including foreign royalties) as part of a purely territorial corporate tax system (i.e. a system that taxes only locally derived income). Such is the case in countries like Hong Kong, Liberia, Mauritius, Panama, Seychelles and Singapore A second obvious policy, and one which is embraced by many countries in the top 15 on the Corporate Tax Haven Index, is to simply refrain from levying any corporate tax in general. Logically, the absence of a corporate tax system has the same effect as a full royalty exemption without nexus. Such is the case in jurisdictions like Bermuda, the British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Guernsey, Isle of Man, Jersey and Turks and Caicos.

Interestingly and worryingly, none of the countries adopting either of these strategies – exemption of foreign royalty income or absence of corporate tax – have had these policies marked as ‘harmful’ by the OECD’s FHTP. For countries without or with a zero corporate tax, referred to by the OECD as the ‘no or only nominal tax jurisdictions’, the FHTP has tried to translate its nexus requirements for patent box regimes (see above) so it can also be applied to the taxation of companies by no or only nominal tax jurisdictions. As such, under the FHTP’s rules, these jurisdictions should only allow companies to benefit from their zero corporate tax regime on taxable income (including income from IP) if the companies meet certain rebuttable substance requirements like having ‘adequate’ employees and expenditures. However, the FHTP’s tweak of the nexus constraint rule does not work very well. The nexus requirement for patent boxes is essentially a formula to determine how much income can benefit from a lower tax rate. The sanction for income that does not comply with the patent box nexus constraint is taxation at the ordinary tax rate. However, in no or only nominal tax jurisdictions, all income benefits anyway from a zero tax rate and thus there is no ordinary tax rate to fall back on as a sanction.

The FHTP’s prescribed alternative sanction is for the no-corporate-tax countries – all of them known corporate tax havens – to issue fines and eventually to strike the company that operates without substance off the register. In such case, the country should also spontaneously exchange all relevant information with the parent jurisdiction so the latter is aware of what has been going on with the local group company. It is however highly doubtful whether this ‘catch-22’ system of tax haven self-reporting can effectively work in practice: the parent jurisdiction will receive information from the tax haven, only if the tax haven itself agrees the local group company has acted as such. In any case, under the Patent Box Indicator, countries without or with a zero corporate tax receive the full score of 100, just like countries that have a patent box without nexus restraint.

Redefining harmful tax practices

Our research shows that there are quite a few lose ends on the current global standards for harmful tax practices in the field of R&D tax policies. The FHTP may deem patent boxes with or without a zero corporate tax as not harmful if they come with sufficient nexus constraint but this does not change the fact that many countries worry about base erosion through outbound royalty payments. Arguably, the rise of ‘defensive measures’ in the form of countries adopting anti-abuse measures in the form of limits to the deduction of royalties paid abroad is strong evidence that the FHTP mechanism to curb royalty flows to no-corporate-tax countries is insufficient: countries still worry about their tax bases being eroded because of outsized royalty payments to local group companies to group companies abroad where the group’s IP is held. As we have shown under the index indicator on ‘deduction limitation of royalty payments’, a rising group of countries has rules in place that disallow to some extent the tax deduction of royalty payments to related companies abroad.

Interestingly, among those countries with defensive measures restricting royalty deductions are also a significant number of non-OECD countries that are generally not considered tax havens. The fact that certain non-OECD countries worry about the state of global OECD shaped rules on harmful tax practices also corroborates with the most recent negotiation session of the UN Framework Convention, held in November 2025. One of the things discussed in Nairobi during these negotiations was the text of a commitment in the Framework Convention to address harmful tax practices. Probed by a few OECD countries who claimed the work done by the FHTP is perfectly adequate, Nigeria responded that the mere fact that the negotiators of the Framework Convention have received a mandate to do work on the matter of harmful tax practices is an acknowledgement that existing OECD standards on harmful tax practices are inadequate or unacceptable for some countries. In the view of Nigeria and other Global South countries, one of the goals of the Framework Convention should be to create a framework to deal with all harmful tax practices that works for all developed and developing countries in north, south, east and west.

Time will tell how alternative standards to fight harmful tax practices will take shape at the UN. It is clear that if the view of Nigeria and others would be turned into binding rules under the Framework Convention, this may result in a world without patent boxes and without countries that refuse to adopt corporate taxes. This, in turn, would prevent other countries from having to adopt defensive measures to deal with the negative spillovers of those tax practices that are currently deemed ‘not harmful’ but in FHTP name only.  

Two negotiations, one crisis: COP30 and the UN tax convention must finally speak to each other

Last week, governments negotiated climate finance in Belém and new global tax rules in Nairobi. The coincidence of these talks happening at the same time — yet with almost no structured conversation between them — shows how fragmented the global response to climate action remains.

Climate negotiators discuss financing needs without asking where predictable public resources will come from, while tax negotiators debate revenue rules without acknowledging the rising costs of the climate crisis.

Treating these as separate worlds is no longer viable. Both confront cross-border harms that no country can manage alone and inequalities that no domestic policy can fix. Both demand cooperation rooted in equity and shared responsibility.

What tax negotiations can learn from climate governance

The climate regime learned early that unequal responsibility cannot be ignored. Countries adopted the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, accepting that those with greater capacity and higher historical emissions must contribute more. Under the Paris Agreement, global goals are delivered through nationally determined contributions, backed by rules on transparency, monitoring, and climate finance from countries with greater means. This system links global expectations with domestic realities and establishes a structured cycle of planning and reporting.

International taxation never made this leap. Failures to cooperate have allowed multinational corporations and wealthy individuals to underpay tax by shifting profits to low-tax jurisdictions and hiding wealth behind secrecy. As a result, countries lose an estimated US$492 billion each year to cross-border tax abuse, according to Tax Justice Network research. These losses directly undermine governments’ ability to fund the climate action, social protection, care systems, and economic diversification essential for a just transition.

With this round of Nairobi negotiations now concluded, countries have signalled a rare opportunity to advance a stronger UN tax convention—one that delivers fairer rules on taxing rights, tackles profit shifting and strengthens transparency.

Most importantly, it offers a historic opportunity to shift the burden from ordinary people to those who profit most from pollution and extraction. In practical terms, it can help build an international system that restores countries’ tax sovereignty so that governments can use tax to deliver on their people’s aspirations.

Subnational leaders are already doing it

Cities, states and regions are carrying the weight of climate action. They build early-warning systems, reinforce infrastructure, manage disaster response, and support communities through heatwaves, floods and droughts. In practice, this means that the vast majority of climate implementation takes place at the subnational level—in some countries this accounts for 70% or more of climate-significant public expenditure, rising to over 80% in cases. Yet these same actors receive only around 10% of climate finance.

This mismatch is structural. Global climate finance is built around national governments and large international funds, with access that is slow, complex and tilted toward institutions with high administrative capacity. Local authorities dealing with climate impacts every day are left without the stable resources they need.

Despite this, subnational governments are modelling innovative approaches to fair climate finance. In India, the state of Kerala applies a 1 per cent flood levy to most goods and services sold within the state, using the revenue to rebuild homes, roads and schools after major floods and to strengthen community readiness for future shocks. In London, drivers of high-emitting vehicles pay a charge under the Ultra Low Emission Zone, and the net revenue is legally ring-fenced and reinvested across the city to improve air quality and strengthen local climate-resilience efforts. These examples show how small, well-designed levies can generate stable public revenue and ensure those with greater responsibility contribute more.

These local approaches matter far beyond their borders. They show that progressive, people-centred taxation can be implemented at scale and can complement national and international systems. They are blueprints for how global rules could be designed to be more equitable and more closely aligned with lived realities.

Global South leadership on solidarity levies shows what climate and tax reform can achieve

Aviation remains one of the most carbon-intensive and undertaxed sectors globally. In response, a coalition of eight countries—including Kenya, Colombia, Barbados, the Dominican Republic, Mozambique, Tanzania, France, and Spain—launched the Premium Flyers Solidarity Coalition, backing levies on business class, first class and private jet travel. These charges target the highest emitters and, if coordinated across willing countries, could raise around €121 billion a year, depending on design—offering a major new source of finance for adaptation, resilience and loss and damage.

This approach builds on existing practice: more than 52 countries already apply some form of aviation levy. Several governments in the Global South are now examining just and equitable air-passenger levies that place higher costs on higher-income and higher-emitting travellers. In Kenya, for example, a new air-ticket fee that supports tourism and related sectors charges KSh 600 (about US $4) for domestic flights and KSh 6,500 (about US $50) for international flights, with higher rates for premium-class tickets and the possibility of future increases through Gazette notice. This kind of tiered design can support sectoral objectives, such as tourism, while also advancing broader goals like climate ambition and strengthening the revenue tools needed to deliver them.

For many countries across Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, fiscal space is tightening, debt is rising, aid is faltering, and private finance cannot meet essential adaptation needs. Solidarity levies are not a replacement for existing commitments, but they remain one of the most practical tools for generating reliable, debt-free public revenue at the scale highlighted in the Baku-to-Belém roadmap.

Avoiding an exercise in managed ambition

A familiar dynamic has emerged in Nairobi. Countries from Africa and the wider South are pushing for meaningful shifts, while some high-income countries and tax havens are using procedural delays and vague language to dilute commitments. Concerns about tax sovereignty are raised selectively, even as the climate crisis shows that sovereignty today is strengthened through cooperation, shared rules and predictable public finance—not through isolation.

A new global tax system is being designed, but many negotiators do not yet seem aware of the scale of this moment or its implications for climate action, inequality and development. Without mechanisms to tax major emitters, high-net-worth individuals and multinational polluters, the emerging convention risks becoming another symbolic agreement.

The reforms under discussion are not abstract. Ending harmful tax incentives, tackling profit shifting and strengthening transparency could raise US$2.6 trillion a year for governments worldwide—more than enough to meet climate-finance needs and expand fiscal space for development. These are the tools countries require to invest in resilience and reduce debt pressures. Choosing not to adopt them is, in effect, choosing climate austerity—underfunded systems facing ever-rising climate costs.

Tax rules decide who bears the costs of the climate crisis

The climate crisis has made the links between public finance, inequality and environmental survival impossible to ignore. Since 2015, the richest 1% have captured US$33.9 trillion in newly created wealth—an amount that dwarfs the total wealth owned today by the entire bottom half of the world’s population.

Alongside this, the world’s largest oil and gas companies made approximately US$200 billion in profits in 2022, much of it in the form of windfall gains amid the global energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. And all of this sits atop a global economy that still directs more than US$7 trillion a year in fossil fuel subsidies—public money that props up the very industries driving the crisis.

It is against this concentration of wealth and public resources that these negotiations show how closely climate action and revenue systems are intertwined. Recognising that connection — and acting on it — will determine the future governments choose to build, and whose pockets they expect to fund it.

A version of this blog appears in Common Dreams and The Energy Mix.

Image credit: Greenpeace. Billboard near the UN Tax Convention negotiations.

‘Illicit financial flows as a definition is the elephant in the room’ — India at the UN tax negotiations

During negotiations in Nairobi this week on a future UN tax convention, India delivered one of the sharpest interventions of the process so far. Addressing the long-contested issue of illicit financial flows, the delegation said:

“Illicit financial flows as a definition is the elephant in the room. The United Nations already has a formal statistical definition, which includes a specific category of illicit financial flows related to tax. This definition recognises tax avoidance as an illicit financial flow. Under the SDG framework, the UN and member states have broadly accepted that illicit flows can also arise from legal economic activities through aggressive tax avoidance — including manipulation of transfer pricing, strategic placement of debt and intellectual property, tax treaty shopping and the use of hybrid instruments and entities. India would like to emphasise that a good starting point for defining illicit financial flows is the UN’s conceptual framework for measuring them.”

This is a pivotal moment. For years, several OECD countries have argued that illicit financial flows cannot be defined, or that tax-related illicit financial flows fall outside the scope of the term. This position followed a long period in which OECD members resisted the UN adopting a definition grounded in the landmark work of the African Union and Economic Commission for Africa High Level Panel on Illicit Financial Flows out of Africa, chaired by former South African president Thabo Mbeki — which identified multinational companies’ tax abuse as the gravest threat.

India’s intervention cuts through the noise by publicly affirming what the UN system has already agreed at the technical level. The definition exists, it is clear, and it explicitly recognises tax-related illicit financial flows as a major component, including the aggressive ways multinational companies underpay tax. Crucially, the statistical framework for measuring these flows is already established and ready to be used.

A debate the Tax Justice Network raised years ago

The Tax Justice Network has warned for years that some states have sought to strip multinational tax abuse out of the definition of illicit financial flows. In 2017, our chief executive Alex Cobham addressed the UN Financing for Development Forum and sounded the alarm about a coordinated effort to narrow the scope of the Sustainable Development Goal target on illicit financial flows. He documented a clear political attempt to remove multinational tax avoidance from the definition, despite the overwhelming evidence that these flows account for some of the largest and most damaging revenue losses in lower-income countries. Allowing multinational tax abuse to slip out of the definition would have weakened accountability, undermined the purpose of SDG 16.4 and erased one of the central drivers of illicit financial flows.

That warning has now been vindicated. India’s intervention this week directly echoes the concerns the Tax Justice Network raised in 2017 and reaffirms what the global evidence base has long shown. There is a globally agreed statistical definition. It explicitly covers tax-related illicit financial flows. The UN Statistical Commission has endorsed it. The conceptual framework developed under Indicator 16.4.1 already recognises aggressive tax avoidance as a form of illicit financial flow. And yet some OECD countries are still resisting what has been agreed by UN member states and embedded in the Sustainable Development Goals. India’s statement makes clear that the debate should have moved on long ago. Under the UN framework, illicit financial flows are defined by the harm they cause to societies and public finances, not simply by whether they break the law. This is why the UN recognises aggressive tax avoidance, even when it is technically legal, as an illicit financial flow.

A definition rooted in global statistical standards

India’s intervention restates the facts. The United Nations has already adopted a formal statistical definition of illicit financial flows through the Sustainable Development Goal framework. Indicator 16.4.1 mandates the measurement of illicit financial flows, and two UN bodies, UNODC and UNCTAD, were tasked with developing the conceptual measurement framework after extensive technical consultations. That framework, later adopted by the UN Statistical Commission, recognises that illicit financial flows can arise from aggressive forms of tax avoidance, including profit shifting through transfer pricing manipulation, tax treaty shopping and the strategic placement of debt and intellectual property. These are not marginal practices. They are some of the most common tools used by multinational companies to shift profits out of the countries where they operate and into jurisdictions offering secrecy or ultra-low tax rates.

India’s confirmation should close the door on repeated attempts to suggest that tax-related illicit financial flows are somehow optional, disputed or outside the scope of the UN framework. The global standard already exists. It has been negotiated, endorsed and agreed by all UN member states. The measurement framework is publicly available, technically robust and explicitly recognises tax abuse as a form of illicit financial flow. Continuing to deny this reality is not a technical position. It is a political one, and it runs counter to the commitments countries have made under the Sustainable Development Goals.

Why tax abuse is central to illicit financial flows

The research base behind the definition is extensive and long established. As the open access chapter by Alex Cobham and Petr Janský shows, multinational profit shifting and corporate tax abuse represent not just one element of illicit financial flows, but one of the largest and most systematically harmful components. The academic and policy literature is unequivocal. Tax-motivated illicit financial flows drain government budgets, weaken the ability of states to provide essential services, and erode governance by breaking the link between taxation and political accountability. When multinationals can shift profits out of countries without consequence, it becomes harder for governments to respond to their citizens, and easier for powerful actors to shape policy behind closed doors. The resulting inequalities are not incidental. They are baked into the architecture of a global tax system that allows a small number of jurisdictions to profit from secrecy and artificially low tax rates.

A globally inclusive understanding of illicit financial flows therefore requires recognising the central role played by multinational enterprises, the opacity of corporate accounts and the financial secrecy offered by high-income jurisdictions. These factors enable profit shifting, conceal the true location of economic activity and allow harmful tax practices to persist across borders. Without confronting these structural drivers, efforts to tackle illicit financial flows will fall short. Recognising tax abuse as a core component of illicit financial flows is not only consistent with the evidence. It is essential to building a fair, transparent and effective international tax system.

What India’s intervention means for the UN tax process

India’s contribution marks the clearest public statement so far that the definition already approved by the UN Statistical Commission should guide negotiations on a UN tax convention. It also exposes a widening gap between the globally inclusive UN framework and the resistance from some OECD members to acknowledge and address multinational tax abuse as a core part of illicit financial flows.

As negotiations continue in Nairobi, governments now face a clear choice. They can continue to promote ambiguity for political convenience, or they can follow the evidence and uphold the commitments already embedded in the Sustainable Development Goals and agreed by all UN member states. A key element to track tax-related illicit financial flows is the analysis of country by country reporting from multinational companies – and the convention negotiations have already seen repeated calls for the adoption of a global, public database of this reporting. Given the evidence showing how this transparency leads multinationals to curb their tax abuse, the recent State of Tax Justice 2025 report shows that such a measure could have generated an additional US$495 billion in revenues worldwide since 2016.

India’s statement should mark the end of manufactured uncertainty. Illicit financial flows include tax abuse. The UN definition exists. The measurement framework exists. The evidence exists. The scope for major revenue gains is abundantly clear. What remains is political will.

Taxation as Climate Reparations: Who Should Pay for the Crisis? 

In this blog, I explore the idea of treating taxation as a form of climate reparations — a necessary step toward recognising the historical injustices that have shaped today’s climate inequality and reimagining how responsibility for repair is shared. 

According to a recent report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) within the next decade, the world is likely to overshoot the temperature goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius, set a decade ago by the Paris Agreement. As countries meet at COP30 in Belem, the question of who bears the greatest responsibility for remedying the climate crisis is likely to take centre stage yet again. 

This question of ‘climate reparations,’ however, is not new.  

Three decades ago, the Association of Small Island Developing States called for an insurance scheme which would be funded by global North states to pay reparations to small island developing states. 

This call has largely been ignored. 

More recently, the Pacific Islands Students Fighting Climate Justice spearheaded the effort to obtain an Advisory Opinion on climate change from the International Court of Justice. Speaking at the ICJ’s hearings earlier this year, its President, Vishal Prasad, had this to say: “If greenhouse emissions are not stopped, we are not just risking our future, we are welcoming its demise.” 

Contemporary calls for climate justice from the global South are rooted in notions of historical responsibility stemming from the racist history of colonial extraction. These advocates argue that climate reparations must address both racial injustice and the ecological crisis, regarding the two as intertwined.  

In this blog, I advance a decolonial reading of the recent advisory opinion issued by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and make the case for treating wealth taxes as a form of climate reparations. I outline several key claims here, though each is developed in greater detail in my forthcoming policy brief. 

Firstly, inequality is a defining feature of the climate crisis — and it is deeply racialised. The racist history of colonial extraction lies at the root of this inequality, making it a foundational driver of both climate vulnerability and injustice. 

While the Paris Agreement correctly regards the climate crisis as a ‘common concern of humankind’, not all human beings will be affected in equal measure. 

It is well documented that the global North bears disproportionate responsibility for the climate crisis. According to the latest report of the IPCC, climate change is not only caused by inequality between countries but also inequality between households with wealthier households contributing disproportionately. The same report found (with high confidence) that vulnerability to climate change is exacerbated by inequity linked to historical processes such as colonialism.  

Climate Inequality and Colonial Responsibility 

The conventional origin story of climate change needs to be decolonised. According to this story: the ‘Anthropocene’, climate change began in the Industrial Revolution in the mid-eighteenth century when the highest emission of greenhouse gases was first recorded. 

Critics of the Anthropocene argue however that this view fails to engage in a robust political economy analysis that acknowledges which human beings bear primary responsibility.  

Decolonial scholars argue that colonialism — particularly racial capitalism with its commodification of both nature and human beings and its model of extractivism — facilitated the present-day ecological crisis. Racial capitalism can be defined as ‘the fabrication and manipulation of racial hierarchies by colonising countries to maintain control over populations and extract labour, wealth, and resources.’ By “race,” I mean social classifications based on phenotypical features, as well as culture, language, and ways of life that were deemed inferior vis-à-vis Europeans during the transatlantic slave trade, as well as the genocide and dispossession of Indigenous peoples from their lands. 

My second claim is that, given the significant role of colonialism in driving the climate crisis, particularly climate inequality, racial justice should be an essential component of climate reparations. 

Article 8 of the Paris Agreement provides that the allocation of resources for loss and damage, does “not involve or provide a basis for any liability or compensation”. 

From Legal Principles to Reparative Justice 

The International Court of Justice’s (ICJ) recent advisory opinion, however, arguably paves the way for climate reparations.  The Court held that there is a customary law duty to prevent significant harm to the environment, and this includes a duty to prevent significant harm to the climate system. Failure to adhere to this duty is an internationally wrongful act giving rise to climate reparations with the caveat that attribution and causation can be established on a case-by-case basis. 

A question left open by the ICJ’s Opinion is the temporal dimension of climate reparations: just how far may one turn back the clock?  Unlike the IPCC, in identifying the root causes of climate change, it did not mention colonialism. 

It did however point to the necessity of phasing out fossil fuels which was a central feature of extractivism during colonialism. 

In addition, it stressed that the principles of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR principle) have a bearing on the interpretation of the normative content of states’ obligations under climate law. 

Legal scholar Duncan French argues that the primary justification for the CBDR principle is to acknowledge the historical responsibility of the North for current environmental degradation, its present capability to remedy such problems, and the way it disproportionately benefited from them. 

The ICJ also considered international human rights law as a relevant normative source in interpreting states’ obligations in respect of climate change. Equity is a core principle of international human rights law. The core international human rights treaties prioritise substantive over formal equality. This includes gender and racial equality both within and between countries as well as advancing the rights to self-determination and development.  

A decolonial reading of the ICJ’s Opinion should prefer a definition of reparations which is both backward-looking and forward-looking because reparations are meant to attend to past, present and future harms. A decolonial reading of the ICJ’s Opinion that is rooted in historical responsibility is necessary so that climate finance is not regarded as charity but as a legal obligation. 

Taxation as Reparations 

In my opinion reparations should take the form of wealth taxes:  

Taxation as reparations should be regarded only as a first step towards decolonising the global economy. Reparative justice would also involve significant debt cancellation, technology transfers and reform of global economic governance systems so that they are more democratic and adequately consider the distinct needs, priorities and capacities of countries in the global South. 

Decolonisation, however, ultimately requires an overhaul of the present international economic order, which continues to disadvantage the peoples of the global South. After all, ‘true reparations can never be delivered by a system that is founded on white supremacy.’ Taxation is, at best, a non-reformist reform that challenges the status quo and marshals the world toward greater racial and climate justice. 

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Tackling Profit Shifting in the Oil and Gas Sector for a Just Transition

The global reliance on oil and gas as a primary energy source comes at a significant cost to the environment and to vulnerable communities. The oil and gas industry, dominated by a few large multinational enterprises, is a major polluter and a key actor in global tax abuse. This creates a double burden: environmental degradation and loss of public revenue for governments that host their operations. Beer and Loeprick (2015) estimate that firms in the extractive sector shift around 34 per cent of their true profits to low-tax jurisdictions. Developing countries lose between 3 and 7 per cent of GDP to profit shifting annually (Cobham and Janský, 2017). A forthcoming South Centre study by Ferré et al. (2025), analysing publicly available country by country reports by oil and gas companies, finds that a significant number of these companies have effective tax rates below 15 per cent in several developing countries, with Morocco, Colombia and Gabon among the most affected South Centre member states. 

Effective taxation of oil and gas multinational enterprises is not only a matter of revenue mobilisation but also a mechanism to align tax systems with climate justice — especially as the world approaches COP30 in Brazil and continues negotiations under the UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation. 

In this blog, we briefly explore some of the tax abuse tools used and the overly generous tax incentives enjoyed by the oil and gas sector, and propose five key measures to enhance the tax capacity of host countries, particularly developing countries. A detailed paper will be published at a later date. 

Tax incentives and tax abuse 

The oil and gas sector poses unique tax challenges. Projects require huge upfront investment, take many years to develop and involve high risks, but can generate large profits once production begins. To attract investors, many governments offer generous tax concessions such as tax holidays, reduced tax rates, exemptions from indirect taxes and duties, accelerated depreciation, and stabilisation clauses — legal provisions that guarantee companies the same tax terms for decades, even if national laws change (Calder, 2015; Mager et al., 2024; UN, 2021, p. 149). While these measures may help attract investment at first, they often erode the tax base and prevent host governments from benefiting once projects become profitable. Stabilisation clauses, in particular, can trap countries in outdated tax deals and limit their ability to respond to changing economic conditions (Oshionebo, 2010).

The effectiveness of tax incentives in attracting investment remains debated. Studies suggest that factors such as political stability, infrastructure, governance and regulatory quality often rank higher than tax rates or incentives in influencing investment decisions (James, 2010). Geography and resource endowment are particularly crucial for extractive investments, overshadowing tax incentives as primary determinants (Hvozdyk and Mercer-Blackman, 2010). 

The global operations of oil and gas multinational enterprises make it easy for them to shift profits across borders through complex accounting practices such as transfer pricing, the use of marketing hubs and offshore shell companies (Calder, 2015; Marcolongo and Zambiasi, 2022). In practice, this often involves moving money between their own subsidiaries — for example, by charging inflated fees for technical services, leasing rigs, intercompany loans or the use of intellectual property (Calder, 2015; Kalra and Afzal, 2023). These transactions can be deliberately mispriced to shift profits from high-tax to low-tax jurisdictions. Developing countries usually lack the data, expertise and comparable market information needed to challenge such schemes, leading to ongoing revenue losses (Kalra and Afzal, 2023). 

Tax treaties modelled after the OECD Model Tax Convention prioritise residence-based taxation at the expense of source countries, meaning that the right to tax often goes to the country where a multinational is headquartered rather than the country where its profits are generated. This design restricts source countries’ taxing rights over business profits, technical services and capital gains of resource companies. Tax treaties often restrict how much tax a country can collect from foreign companies. They do this by lowering the taxes countries can charge on dividends, interest and royalties, and by excluding services from taxation. Many treaties also define “permanent establishment” (PE) — the legal threshold for when a company’s operations can be taxed — in very narrow terms. Oil and gas multinational enterprises take advantage of this by splitting their activities across subsidiaries, rotating drilling rigs to stay below time limits, or providing services remotely so that their presence never officially counts as taxable. 

Feng et al. (2024) analysed more than 180 tax treaties between OECD countries and South Centre member states. They found that the average source taxing rights index was below 0.4 (on a scale where 1 represents maximum taxing rights under the UN Model), showing that developing countries lose a large share of their taxing rights under these treaties. Similarly, Amaro et al. (2024) show that many treaties restrict taxation of services, even though developing countries are mostly net importers of services. 

Proposals for reform 

1. Strengthen transfer pricing rules. 
Transfer pricing rules should align with international best practice, such as the UN Practical Manual on Transfer Pricing, and apply to all related-party transactions — exchanges of goods or services between companies within the same multinational group. These rules ensure that internal prices reflect real market values, preventing profits from being shifted to low-tax countries. Key steps include building the capacity of tax authorities to apply the rules effectively, setting clear documentation requirements for cross-border transactions, and establishing reference price benchmarks for commodities like oil and gas to check whether declared prices are fair. Regional cooperation can further strengthen enforcement by enabling information sharing, joint audits and shared databases to detect and prevent profit shifting. 

2. Strengthen source taxation rights. 
Developing countries should renegotiate or terminate outdated treaties that overly restrict source taxation. New treaties should incorporate United Nations Model provisions that strengthen source taxation, such as Article 12AA on Fees for Services, the revised Article 8 on Income from Shipping and Air Transport, and Article 5A on Income from Exploration and Exploitation of Natural Resources, which reduces the time threshold for establishing a permanent establishment (PE) to 30 days. The definition of a permanent establishment should include all forms of physical presence and economic activities typical of oil and gas operations, and should adopt anti-fragmentation rules to prevent the artificial avoidance of a taxable presence. 

3. Explore formulary apportionment for oil and gas multinational enterprises. 
Instead of relying on the complex arm’s length principle — which treats each subsidiary of a multinational as if it were an independent company — countries could adopt formulary apportionment. This approach looks at a company’s global profits as a whole and divides them among countries based on real economic activity, such as sales, assets and employment. It ensures profits are taxed where value is actually created. For the extractives sector, some experts like Kerry Sadiq (2024) suggest adding a fourth factor based on production levels, so that resource-rich countries receive a fair share of tax revenues. 

4. Mandate public country by country reporting. 
Public country by country reporting should be mandatory for all fossil fuel companies. Contractual agreements with governments should also be made public. This would help tax administrations and the public track profits, payments and emissions across jurisdictions. 

5. Remove harmful tax incentives. 
Governments should review tax expenditures, remove costly and unproductive concessions, and replace profit-based incentives with transparent, time-bound, production-based measures such as royalties linked to output. All incentives should be disclosed publicly in national budgets and through open registries for accountability. International and regional coordination can harmonise incentive regimes, prevent harmful competition and establish global standards for extractive companies. 

Ensuring that oil and gas multinational enterprises pay their fair share is essential to financing a just climate transition for the Global South — one grounded in both tax justice and climate justice. 

References 

Amaro, F., Grondona, V., & Picciotto, S. (2024). The Implications of Treaty Restrictions of Taxing Rights on Services, Especially for Developing Countries. South Centre. https://www.southcentre.int/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/RP211_The-Implications-of-Treaty-Restrictions-of-Taxing-Rights-on-Services-Especially-for-Developing-Countries_EN.pdf 

Beer, S., & Loeprick, J. (2015). Taxing income in the oil and gas sector: Challenges of international and domestic profit allocation. WU International Taxation Research Paper Series No. 2015 – 18https://research.wu.ac.at/ws/portalfiles/portal/18981643/SSRN-id2610558.pdf 

Black, S., Liu, A. A., Parry, I. W. H., & Vernon, N. (2023). IMF Fossil Fuel Subsidies Data: 2023 Update. IMF Working Papers2023(169), 1. Crossref. https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400249006.001 

Calder, J. (2015). Administering Fiscal Regimes for Extractive Industries. International Monetary Fund. 

Cobham, A., & Janský, P. (2017). Global distribution of revenue loss from tax avoidance: Re-estimation and country results (No. 9292562797). WIDER Working Paper. 

Ferré, L., Kawashima, N., & Piot, A. (2025). Curtailing Tax Avoidance by Oil and Gas Multinational Companies (MNCs) in Developing Countries. South Centre; Geneva Graduate Institute. 

Hvozdyk, L., & Mercer-Blackman, V. (2010). What Determines Investment in the Oil Sector? A New Era for National and International Oil Companies. Inter-American Development Bank. 

James, S. (2010). Providing Incentives for Investment: Advice for policymakers in developing countries. Investment Climate in Practice

Kadafa, A. A. (2012). Environmental impacts of oil exploration and exploitation in the Niger Delta of Nigeria. Global Journal of Science Frontier Research Environment & Earth Sciences12(3), 19–28. 

Kalra, A., & Afzal, M. N. I. (2023). Transfer pricing practices in multinational corporations and their effects on developing countries’ tax revenue: A systematic literature review. International Trade, Politics and Development7(3), 172–190. 

Mager, F., Meinzer, M., & Millán, L. (2024, June). How corporate tax  incentives undermine  climate justice. Tax Justice Network. 

Marcolongo, G., & Zambiasi, D. (2022). Incorporation of offshore shell companies as an indicator of corruption risk in the extractive industries. Incorporation of Offshore Shell Companies as an Indicator of Corruption Risk in the Extractive Industries2022(14). https://doi.org/10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2022/145-7 

Oshionebo, E. (2010). Stabilization clauses in natural resource extraction contracts: Legal, economic and social implications for developing countries. Asper Rev. Int’l Bus. & Trade L.10, 1. 

Sadiq, K. (2024). Formulary Apportionment for the Extractives Industry—How Should Resource Rents be Taxed. Journal Financing for DevelopmentVol 1(5). https://uonjournals.uonbi.ac.ke/ojs/index.php/ffd/article/view/2287 

San Sebastián, M., & Hurtig, A.-K. (2004). Oil exploitation in the Amazon basin of Ecuador: A public health emergency. Revista Panamericana de Salud Pública15(3), 205–211. 

UN. (2021). Handbook on Selected Issues for Taxation of the Extractive Industries by Developing Countries. United Nations (UN). https://www.un.org/esa/ffd/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Extractives-Handbook_2017.pdf 

Follow the money: Rethinking geographical risk assessment in money laundering

The new EU Money Laundering Regulation (EU 2024/1624) explicitly defines financial secrecy as a geographical risk factor that obliged entities must take into account when applying their customer due diligence obligations to customers from third countries in the future. According to the regulation, financial secrecy arises, for example, when countries hinder the exchange of information, do not maintain registers of beneficial owners or have strict banking secrecy. These factors overlap with the indicators of the Financial Secrecy Index, thus opening up the possibility of assessing geographical risks in money laundering prevention in a more evidence-based and less politically biased manner.

Traditional high-risk country lists (so-called ‘blacklists’) fall short: they are politically biased, binary (yes-no) and thus overly simplistic, and risk having discriminatory effects. These lists usually target small countries or those with lower incomes, while large financial centres are often overlooked. This is why they have been criticised by the IMF, for example, and why the FATF has promised improvements. A data-driven assessment can compensate for this distortion and draw attention to those countries and transactions that actually pose a high risk of money laundering.

Against this backdrop, on 26 September, I had the honour of presenting a geographical risk model for money laundering using data from the Financial Secrecy Index at a roundtable on ‘Anti-Money Laundering in the Berlin-Brandenburg Region’. It is based on the results of the EU-funded TRACE research project (Horizon 2020) and is explained in more detail in a scientific article accepted for publication by Cambridge University Press (see a working paper version here). My slides from the roundtable can be found here.

The Financial Secrecy Index assesses 141 countries on the basis of 20 indicators. The secrecy score reflects the extent of financial secrecy in each country on a scale of 0 to 100, thus providing an objective basis for geographical risk models. The underlying database is structured according to scientific standards and makes an unrivalled wealth and depth of comparative legal data and gap analyses publicly available in over 120 data points per country. The index method was statistically validated by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission in 2018.

The model presented combines the secrecy score with the transaction volume and uses this to calculate a risk score for each transaction or suspicious activity report. This allows suspicious activity reports to be prioritised – particularly important given the large volumes that are received daily by the FIU or generated by transaction monitoring by obliged parties. This model can serve as a safety net to ensure that no big (money laundering) fish slip through the net of other risk assessments.

As an example, we applied this method to the FinCEN Files, a dataset containing over 18,000 suspicious activity reports from the United States. Our model can help not only FIUs, but also banks and other obliged parties to fulfil their reporting obligations in a more targeted and efficient manner and reduce the risk of fines. Supervisory and law enforcement authorities can sort suspicious activity reports according to urgency and substantiate national risk analyses with data (as we outline in greater detail in an article in the European Journal of Criminal Policy and Research – open access, here).

The model is modularly expandable – for example, for sectors such as real estate or cryptocurrencies – and can be continuously improved via feedback loops. Using anonymised data packages from FIUs, supervisory authorities or obliged parties, the model could be further refined and calibrated to achieve the best results and reduce false positives. We are therefore open to partnerships with authorities, supervisory bodies and the private sector or obliged parties in order to further improve anti-money laundering and risk assessment. A data-based geographical risk assessment could lead to a more targeted use of resources and thus make the fight against money laundering significantly more effective.

The European Union could certainly be even more ambitious in this regard: according to the EU Money Laundering Directive, the above-mentioned consideration of financial secrecy as a geographical risk factor is only mandatory for non-EU member states (‘third countries’). Of course, obliged entities can go beyond this and apply the same risk parameters to transactions or business relationships within EU countries. After all, the idea that financial secrecy and money laundering risks are not a problem in the EU is far from reality.

Democracy, Natural Resources, and the use of Tax Havens by Firms in Emerging Markets

We’re pleased to share this blog from the Kelon Felix, Chris Jones, Johan Rewilak & Yama Temouri, orginally posted by Centre for Business Prosperity here.


With over 36% of multinational firm profits shifted to low-tax jurisdictions each year, the use of tax havens has become one of the defining features of global capitalism. Estimates suggest that without such practices, domestic tax revenues in EU countries would be around 20% higher (Tørsløv et al., 2023). Globally, the State of Tax Justice Report finds that some US$1.42 trillion in profits are moved offshore annually, costing governments an estimated US$348 billion in lost tax revenue (Tax Justice Network, 2024). These flows undermine the provision of public goods such as education, healthcare, and infrastructure, distort competition, and generate deep ethical concerns. For many commentators, “dark offshore money” has even become a threat to democracy itself (Johnson & Acemoglu, 2024).

Questions remain on how political systems shape these practices, particularly in emerging markets, despite our knowledge on the scale and tax management strategies of firms in their quest to avoid taxation. Our recent study, published in Management International Review fills this gap by examining how the level of democracy and the presence of natural resource rents in a firm’s home country influence their use of tax haven locations. Emerging markets provide an ideal setting for such analysis, given the fluidity and diversity in their political systems in comparison to long-established democracies in the developed world.

Using a large dataset of around 4,500 multinational firms with detailed financial and ownership information, we find that firms headquartered in more democratic emerging markets are significantly less likely to route investments through tax havens. As Rodrik (2000) describes, democracy functions as a “meta-institution”—a higher-order framework that shapes the operation of all others. By promoting transparency, accountability, and the rule of law, democratic systems limit firms’ ability to pursue secrecy without scrutiny. Autocratic regimes, by contrast, often foster environments where tax haven use serves not only fiscal purposes but also the protection of elite interests and the preservation of political power.

Yet we also find that natural resource dependence can erode the constraining effects of democracy on tax avoidance. Resource rents foster rent-seeking, entrench elite power, and weaken institutional oversight, making firms in resource-rich countries more inclined to use tax havens. Moreover, resource wealth moderates the influence of democracy itself: even in relatively democratic settings, entrenched elite interests can persist, limiting the ability of institutions to curb offshore practices.

Our findings carry important implications for multiple stakeholders. Managers of emerging-market multinational firms may see offshore tax avoidance as a rational response to domestic conditions—such as political norms or entrenched elite networks—but this strategy entails serious ethical and reputational risks. When exposed, such behaviour can invite intense scrutiny from civil society, consumers, employees, and shareholders alike. For policymakers, they face a double-edged sword. Whereas an autocratic political system and granting favours to elites help secure political support and help maintain power, democracy and dismantling deep-rooted elite networks, may reduce offshore activity and stimulate government revenues. If these supplementary revenues are well managed, they can build public trust and support ultimately strengthening a government’s case for re-election. At the international level, stronger multilateral cooperation on tax transparency and information exchange is needed to prevent profit-shifting, but the effectiveness of these efforts will depend heavily on the domestic institutions of participating countries.

Our study shows that tax haven use is not simply a matter of lowering tax bills. It is deeply embedded in the political and institutional fabric of emerging markets. Democracies constrain offshore secrecy, while resource rents encourage it, and together they shape a complex geography and web of global tax avoidance. At a time when geopolitical competition and the search for fair taxation are intensifying, recognising the role of political institutions is essential. Moving away from autocratic regimes may not eliminate offshore use, but they point countries in a more sustainable and accountable direction.

Lastly, our findings also have relevance for developed economies where institutions are weakening and the erosion of democratic norms and growing political polarization raise concerns about institutional resilience. As oversight weakens and trust declines, these nations may become more exposed to rent-seeking behaviour that may lead to greater offshore secrecy.

Why Climate Justice Needs Tax Sovereignty

This October, climate and tax justice movements will gather in Brazil for A Climate for Change: Towards Just Taxation for Climate Finance. The two-day conference at UNICAMP (13–14 October 2025) comes at a pivotal moment: just weeks before COP30 in Belém and on the road to the next stage of UN tax convention talks in Nairobi. 

The arc from Belém to Nairobi defines the crossroads we face. In Belém, governments will deliberate on how to mobilise trillions for the climate transition. In Nairobi, they will decide who sets the tax rules that determine where that money comes from and who controls it. Linking the two is vital: without tax justice, climate finance will remain unreliable, unequal, and undemocratic. Without climate justice, tax revenues will remain misdirected, inequitable, and detached from the people and communities they are meant to serve. These are not parallel struggles but interdependent ones, each giving meaning and force to the other.

Déjà vu in climate finance 

Climate finance debates can feel like déjà vu. For over a decade, leaders have stood on global stages, pledging billions, announcing shiny new funds, and promising to unlock trillions through markets. Yet too often, those pledges fade quietly into the background. 

The most famous commitment — to mobilise US$100 billion a year by 2020 — was missed for years. When donor countries finally reported it as “achieved” in 2022, watchdogs pointed out that much of the total was made up of loans counted at their full face value, development aid re-labelled as climate finance, and private flows of doubtful additionality. Instead of easing the burden, almost 69% of this finance came as loans, leaving many of the most climate-vulnerable countries paying back more than they received. 

At COP29, governments announced the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG): a promise of USD 300 billion annually by 2035, billed as the successor to the failed $100 billion pledge. But rather than restoring trust, the NCQG has already become an emblem of delay, dispute, and deep division over who pays, how much, and who benefits. This cycle repeats itself: promises at one COP, quarrels over delivery at the next, and citizens left waiting for finance that never truly arrives. Meanwhile, climate disasters accelerate — from floods and fires to heatwaves and droughts — and the bill for adaptation, loss and damage, and energy transition keeps growing. 

But here’s the twist: while negotiators scour the world for “innovative” fixes — carbon markets, blended finance, green bonds — the biggest climate fund already exists. It’s hiding in plain sight: in tax havens, fossil fuel subsidies and unfair financial rules, all flowing in the wrong direction. Governments are subsidising crisis, locking economies into fossil fuel dependence, stalling investment in renewables, and delaying diversification. In reality, rich countries could raise up to US$6.6 trillion a year through polluter-pays measures — taxing the super-rich, ending fossil fuel handouts, enforcing minimum corporate tax rates, cancelling unjust debt payments and cutting bloated military budgets. Unlocking those resources doesn’t require invention. It requires political will.  

Leaky pipes of climate finance 

Every year, governments lose nearly US$500 billion to tax abuse by multinationals and the super-rich. At the same time, they spend trillions on fossil fuel subsidies — more than US$600 billion in 2023 on consumer subsidies alone, and close to US$7 trillion globally when you include the wider costs of pollution and climate damage. These are political choices, not inevitabilities, and the imbalance could not be sharper. As of April 2025, the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage — established under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to support vulnerable countries in rebuilding after climate disasters — has attracted just US$768 million in pledges from 27 contributors, with only part of that delivered. Set against the hundreds of billions needed each year, it is a token sum in the face of a mounting catastrophe. By comparison, ExxonMobil alone made over US$55 billion in profits in 2022, the highest ever for a Western oil company. One corporation’s windfall dwarfed what the entire world offered to frontline communities struggling to rebuild. 

Against this backdrop, governments and civil society are advancing new proposals for fair and reliable sources of finance. Global solidarity levies are one of the most powerful ideas now on the table — modest taxes on undertaxed activities that drive emissions and inequality. At COP29, the Task Force on Solidarity Levies set out options including charges on fossil fuel extraction, aviation, shipping, plastics, cryptocurrency, financial transactions, and billionaire wealth, with the potential to raise over $500 billion a year for climate and development while also strengthening domestic resource mobilisation. Building on this, eight countries launched a premium flyers coalition at the UN Financing for Development conference in Seville in June 2025, arguing that it is indefensible for the wealthiest flyers and dirtiest industries to escape taxation while frontline communities are left to pay the price of the climate crisis. 

Where solidarity levies could help rebalance the scales, their absence is felt most sharply in the Global South, where fiscal systems remain anchored in extractive revenues. Heavy reliance on natural resource rents makes government revenues dangerously volatile: they collapse when commodity prices fall, and when prices rise they deepen dependence on fossil rents instead of building broader, fairer tax bases. With corporate profits and elite wealth slipping offshore, governments are left with few reliable options and often fall back on regressive taxes like VAT — easy to collect, but hardest on ordinary citizens. This dependence on extraction also slows diversification, keeping economies tied to fossil rents instead of investing in renewable energy, green industries, and value-added industrial sectors that could build resilience. At the same time, rising debt service is eating up a growing share of public budgets, leaving governments with little fiscal space for a just energy transition. 

The lesson is clear: the money exists, but it flows the wrong way. Instead of subsidising polluters and enabling tax abuse, governments could reclaim resources to fund resilience, renewables, and care systems. Redirecting even a fraction could transform climate finance overnight. 

Why tax is different — and how it pays back  

Think about climate finance like your home’s water supply. Would you rather wait on rainwater that may or may not come, or draw from a well you can rely on every day? Loans pile up. Donations dry up. But tax is steady, fair, and accountable.

And just as no home can function without a steady water supply, countries need the right to raise and govern their own revenues. This is the essence of tax sovereignty: deciding who is taxed, on what terms, and in whose interests. Without it, governments remain trapped in manufactured scarcity, bound by debt and external dictates. With it, they can chart climate transitions that reflect their priorities and protect their people. 

Tax justice isn’t only about raising money. It’s about shaping the political economy of the transition itself — deciding whose interests are prioritised, who pays, who benefits, and who is left absorbing the costs on the path to sustainable futures. 

In the Global South, the stakes come into sharpest focus: the reckoning is not only about finance gaps but about climate debt. According to a 2025 report by ActionAid, rich polluting countries owe Africa at least US$36 trillion in climate debt. This is the unpaid bill of historic responsibility — a legal obligation under international agreements and a material debt for the real damages and adaptation costs African countries now face. This debt is far greater than the total foreign debt owed by African countries, and it represents services like healthcare, education, and climate action that are being forgone to repay foreign creditors.  

It is this debt that gives rise to demands for climate reparations. Too often, those demands are brushed aside as impossible, dismissed as utopian. But reparations are not charity — they are accountability: recognising that the climate crisis is the result of deliberate choices that enriched some while pushing those least responsible yet most affected into vulnerability. Unlike loss and damage finance, which covers only present impacts while avoiding liability, reparations demand responsibility for past harms and the moral obligation to repair them.  

Tax justice shows how these demands can be made real. A windfall tax on unearned profits — the billions energy companies pocketed during the global price crisis, not through innovation but from sheer price spikes — would be a start. Windfall taxes in Europe offer an example: when energy providers made “abnormally high” profits during the energy crisis, some governments acted — imposing temporary taxes to redirect surplus profits toward households suffering from sky-high bills and toward stabilising energy systems. These measures show what’s possible when tax systems are used to reclaim money that was never meant to go unchecked.  

Alongside this, taxing extreme wealth and shutting down loopholes that let the richest shift profits offshore would raise the resources needed to recognise historic responsibility and fund just transitions. Far from utopian, these actionable steps show how those most responsible for climate breakdown can — and must — pay their fair share.  

Brazil’s moment to lead 

As host of COP30 and co-leader of the Baku-to-Belém Roadmap, Brazil stands at the centre of a historic turning point. The roadmap’s headline figure — to mobilise US$1.3 trillion a year by 2035 — signals ambition. But the real test will be in the design: will this money come from yet more debt and speculative financial instruments, or will it be anchored in fair taxation, subsidy reform, and new international tax rules that shift power away from polluters and towards people? 

Brazil itself embodies the paradox. On one hand, it is home to the Amazon — a living system vital to stabilising the planet’s climate. On the other, Petrobras — Brazil’s state-controlled oil giant — is central to national plans to raise oil and gas production by about 20% by 2030, accounting for more than half of the increase. This expansion deepens the dependence that drives both climate and fiscal vulnerability, even as the government continues to pour tax breaks and financing into fossil projects while presenting a green development agenda on the global stage. 

That contradiction matters far beyond Brazil’s borders. If the world’s largest tropical forest is treated as collateral for more fossil expansion, the credibility of global climate commitments crumbles. But calling for Brazil to turn away from fossil extraction cannot mean ignoring its developmental needs. The alternative must be tangible — harnessing tax revenues to fund just transitions that create genuine economic pathways for communities, rather than entrenching new structural traps. And if Brazil chooses this path — redirecting subsidies, closing loopholes, and championing international tax cooperation in the UN negotiations in Nairobi — it could turn contradiction into precedent. It would prove that a country can meet development needs while advancing climate justice, and that finance can be built not on charity or debt, but on justice and sovereignty.  

This is also Brazil’s chance to connect climate leadership with the politics of equity. By linking tax sovereignty to the repayment of climate debt, it could strengthen its moral authority at COP30 and show how domestic reforms — taxing windfalls, phasing out fossil incentives, investing in renewable industries — can reinforce global ones. In doing so, Brazil would turn the abstract numbers of the roadmap into real, durable gains for people and the planet. 

In short: the Amazon will be the backdrop, but tax justice will be the litmus test. Brazil can show that climate finance done right is not about volatile private finance or false solutions that serve as dangerous distractions, but rather about reclaiming resources from the structures that created the crisis in the first place. 

A climate for change 

This October, A Climate for Change: Towards Just Taxation for Climate Finance will bring together policymakers, researchers, and grassroots leaders at UNICAMP in Campinas. Here in Brazil, ahead of COP30, we will break down silos and forge strategies, focusing on how reclaiming tax sovereignty can unlock the trillions needed for a just, people-centred transition. 

Across two days, we will take on three urgent questions at the heart of that struggle: 

These questions point to concrete measures — from closing corporate tax loopholes and taxing extreme wealth and fossil fuel windfalls, to ending destructive subsidies and anchoring the Baku-to-Belém roadmap in just taxation rather than new debt. They also demand reimagining power itself: reshaping taxation through feminist, decolonial, and reparatory visions led by those at the nexus of extraction, inequality, and climate breakdown.

Taken together, these steps are not just about closing a finance gap; they form the foundations of tax sovereignty, creating revenues that are steady, fair, and accountable to citizens rather than external lenders. But sovereignty cannot be secured in isolation. It rests on multilateral cooperation — which is why advancing a UN Framework on International Tax Cooperation is so critical. For the first time, all countries — not just the richest — have the chance to rewrite the global rules on a truly democratic footing. What is needed now is not another empty pledge, but tax justice: the lever that can turn climate debt into reparations, redirect obscene fossil fuel profits into renewables, and give nations the fiscal power to plan just transitions on their own terms. 

Join us 

Register now to attend the conference online or in person on 13–14 October 2025. The two-day conference will be held at UNICAMP in Campinas, Brazil and will start at 9:30am local time. More information about the event, speakers and panels is available here

The conference is co-hosted by Instituto de Economia, University of Campinas (UNICAMP), Inesc, Observatório Brasileiro do Sistema Tributário, Red de Justicia Fiscal de América Latina y el Caribe, Transforma, and the Tax Justice Network, the two-day conference will take place at the University of Campinas in Brazil on 13-14 October 2025. 

Why are we gathering in Brazil to talk climate? Why now?

This October, climate and tax justice movements will gather in Brazil for A Climate for Change: Towards Just Taxation for Climate Finance. The two-day conference at UNICAMP (13–14 October 2025) comes at a pivotal moment: just weeks before COP30 in Belém and in the first year of negotiations towards a UN tax convention. It is an opportunity to connect two agendas too often treated in isolation — climate and taxation — and to show why bridging them is essential for a just transition.

A missing link in climate finance

Every year, countries lose around US $500 billion to cross-border tax abuse by multinational corporations and superrich individuals. That is money that should be funding hospitals, schools, renewable energy, and climate resilience — but instead is siphoned away into tax havens and hidden behind financial secrecy.

Outdated global tax rules — shaped with little input from most countries — together with the grip of corporate interests, strip governments of their tax sovereignty: the right to decide who is taxed, on what terms, and in whose interests. Stripped of this power, governments are pushed into manufactured scarcity — trapped in the myth that there is “no money” for climate action or public services, even as billions drain away through loopholes, profit shifting, and harmful incentives.

The Tax Justice Network’s recent research shows that reasserting tax sovereignty would cover most countries’ climate finance needs and leave most with billions to spare towards other public services — yet this potential remains out of reach, with 80% of countries’ tax sovereignty already “endangered” or “negated.”

Today’s global economic architecture entrenches that reality. It protects wealth while constraining governments — especially in the Global South — from mobilising their own resources. The result is dependence on debt, austerity, and volatile private flows, where creditors and corporations hold more sway over policy than citizens. What we face is not a climate finance gap, but a tax sovereignty gap — one that robs governments of the fiscal space to raise and use revenues for the transitions their people and planet urgently need.

Brazil at the crossroads

Brazil is not only hosting COP30 — it is also co-leading, with Azerbaijan, the Baku-to-Belém Roadmap, the flagship process tasked with mobilising US $1.3 trillion a year in climate finance by 2035. For Brazil, this is more than diplomacy: it is a political choice to step onto the global stage as a broker between North and South, and as a country whose own development depends on whether the world can finance a just transition.

The roadmap underscores both urgency and risk. Mobilising US $1.3 trillion annually is essential — but how that money is raised matters as much as the figure itself. Will it come as new loans, tightening the debt trap that already consumes much of the Global South’s revenue? Will it rely on false climate solutions like carbon markets that mask inaction, fuel land grabs, and fail to cut emissions? Without tax sovereignty, these targets risk joining the long trail of broken pledges that have stalled climate action for decades.

This is why Brazil matters now. With COP30 in Belém, in the heart of the Amazon, the world’s eyes will be on a country that reflects the contradictions of today’s global economy: a rising power with vast natural wealth and climate leadership ambitions, yet pouring billions into new oil and gas expansion that risks locking the region into decades of carbon dependence. These contradictions give Brazil both the credibility and the urgency to demand climate finance anchored in public revenues, not in debt or extractivism.

A Climate for Change will spotlight this debate. It argues that tax is not only the most reliable and fastest source of climate finance, but also the most democratic — unlike aid, debt, or private capital, which shift power from citizens to creditors and corporations. For Brazil, advancing tax justice is both a domestic necessity and a global responsibility: reclaiming the revenues needed to protect its people, preserve the Amazon, break its reliance on fossil fuel rents, and prove that another model of climate finance is possible.

Building a new agenda

The conference will bring together advocates, policymakers, researchers, and grassroots movements from across the world to build common strategies and narratives. Together, we will set out a vision where countries can exercise their rights to tax fairly, reclaim the resources lost each year to tax abuse, and direct them towards development and climate priorities defined by their people.

In doing so, we will make clear that tax justice and climate justice are inseparable — and that reclaiming tax sovereignty is central to transforming the global economic order that has entrenched inequality, empowered corporate interests, and delayed climate action for far too long.

Join us

Register now to attend the conference online or in person on 13–14 October 2025. The two-day conference will be held at UNICAMP in Campinas, Brazil and will start at 9:30am local time. More information about the event, speakers and panels is available here.

The conference is co-hosted by Instituto de Economia, University of Campinas (UNICAMP), Inesc, Observatório Brasileiro do Sistema Tributário, Red de Justicia Fiscal de América Latina y el Caribe, Transforma, and the Tax Justice Network, the two-day conference will take place at the University of Campinas in Brazil on 13-14 October 2025.

The myth-buster’s guide to the “millionaire exodus” scare story

Millionaires are staying where they are, despite over 18000 news pieces published around the world since the start of 2024 claiming otherwise.

The news reporting is largely based on a report by golden passport sellers Henley & Partners, and has resulted in the UK government giving more generous tax breaks to some of the wealthiest households.

We’ve put together this short guide to help cut through the noise.

Less than 1% – that’s how many millionaires are supposedly leaving

News reporting about millionaires leaving almost always present numbers but not percentages. For example, the 16,500 millionaires supposedly leaving the UK is less than 1% of UK millionaires. When put into perspective, the number of millionaires supposedly leaving is statistically insignificant. This has been consistently the case at a global level since 2013, when the claims began.

The report’s author admits his data is “skewed” but won’t make it public

The author of the Henley report has publicly acknowledged the data behind the claims is “skewed” towards much wealthier centi-millionaires and billionaires, which means it’s unrepresentative of millionaires in general and so can’t support the claims in the news. The data is primarily based on where people said they work on social media, not on actual migration. The report author has not made his data public for others to verify.

The report’s definition of “millionaires” leaves out most millionaires

The report defines “millionaires” as people with more than $1 million in liquid assets, which leaves out most millionaires whose main asset is likely to be their home, and focuses on the most mobile millionaires. For the UK, this leaves out 75% of millionaires. This is almost never made clear in news reporting. Even with this narrower definition, the number of “liquid millionaires” leaving are still a tiny percentage: less than 3% of the UK’s “liquid millionaires”.

The report factchecks its own claims about wealth exodus in a footnote

The report makes claims about how much wealth the millionaires supposedly leaving represent, which many news stories have presented as the wealth that will be lost from a country when millionaires move away. The report’s methodology quietly acknowledges this isn’t the case, and that many will keep “much of their wealth” where it is.

Most millionaires support a wealth tax

News reporting has focused on a statistically insignificant number of millionaires supposedly migrating and mostly ignored the 80% of UK millionaires who support a wealth tax (58% across G20 countries).

More extreme wealth shrinks economies

The idea that governments should be worried about superrich individuals leaving misses the point on the harms of extreme wealth. The rise of extreme wealth is directly linked to lower economic productivity, more households going into debt and to people living shorter lives.

Extreme wealth is collected, not earned, and is taxed much less than earned wealth

Most people primarily earn wealth (wages and salaries for work) but the superrich primarily collect wealth (dividends and rent for owing things). Collected wealth is often taxed much less than earned wealth, which helps the superrich get richer faster, which shrinks economies. Wealth taxes end the special treatment wealth collectors get over wealth earners, which is necessary for protecting people, economies and planet.

For a deeper dive, see our report “The millionaire exodus myth”.

Money can’t buy health, but taxes can improve healthcare

No one likes going to the doctor. When you’re guaranteed a neighbourhood health system with community health workers, and a clinic close by with medical staff on duty, reliable electricity and water, and medicines available, it’s one thing. However, for those people living with failing, poorly designed or underfunded healthcare systems, waking up in the middle of the night with a feverish child is a nightmare.

Having enough money in your pocket doesn’t change this situation either. And most people who have the greatest health needs don’t have enough money in their pockets to pay for expensive private care. In contrast, enough money in the government’s public purse would make all the difference. Governments can finance better public healthcare systems, train, employ and equitably distribute more staff, and build the necessary infrastructure, so that more people will live longer, healthier lives.

Government spending accounts for the lion’s share of total healthcare spending globally, well beyond private healthcare provision, but governments need enough money. Taxes are crucial for making sure countries have the necessary resources. However, the pathway between taxes and better healthcare is not always clear, especially outside the world of tax justice.

This is why a group of us – researchers and health activists – mapped out how tax justice can make all the difference in improving health in our recent contribution to the Global Health Watch 7, the People’s Health Movement’s flagship publication. This provides critical and affirmative content on the political economy, health system, and wider issues that affect health today to inform the activist mobilisation for health justice that the current situation demands.

The pathways between taxes and health

Taxes can transform society and healthcare when the five principles of tax justice, or the 5Rs, are active in tax systems. Tax is about far more than raising revenue. Briefly, these are

A picture of the pathways between taxes and health

We created a diagram to explain the links, or pathways, between taxes and health.

The left-hand circle illustrates the key global influences on national policies. For example, a multinational enterprise may avoid taxes, which reduces the government revenue available for public services.

The right-hand circle represents the broader determinants of health, which are directly impacted by the five principles of tax justice. For example, the number of people smoking is, to some extent, determined by a government’s policy on taxing tobacco, which multinational enterprises may influence.

The central boxes illustrate the principles of tax justice and their potential positive impact. However, the current international financial system and influential global and national actors often undermine these principles.

Pathways between taxes and health

Stealing taxes sickens society

Taxes may be society’s superpower. Yet deep historic and structural global injustices mean that governments are often unable or unwilling to generate and allocate taxes in ways that dismantle inequalities effectively.  

Tax injustice takes many guises. Tax abuse costs the world an estimated $492 billion in lost tax revenue every year. This happens when multinationals shift profits to tax havens, away from where they do business, extracting resources, marketing digital products, and employing people, and when wealthy individuals stash their money offshore to hide it from the tax collectors where they live or generate income.

Tax havens enable this plunder. People avoid paying taxes and use these havens to circumvent criminal laws, transparency requirements, financial regulation, and more. The biggest enablers of tax abuse are not the small palm-fringed island havens that we commonly imagine. Instead, the Tax Justice Network demonstrates that,

The UK and its dependent territories (aka the UK’s “second empire”) are responsible for 23 per cent of the corporate tax losses. The “axis of tax avoidance” (the UK and its second empire, plus the Netherlands, Luxembourg and Switzerland) are together responsible for 33 per cent. In total, OECD member countries and their dependencies account for more than 6 of every ten dollars lost.

The State of Tax Justice 2024

Tax injustice infringes on the lives, rights, and well-being of the vast majority of people and further marginalises already-discriminated groups. Using conservative estimates of tax losses, equivalent to just under 2% of government revenue, Malawi suffers at the hands of multinational companies and wealthy individuals offshoring their profits and wealth. The losses are equivalent to:

Taxes save lives

Countries can and must use their tax superpowers. If Nigeria had the equivalent tax revenue it loses each year because multinational companies shift their profits, 11 more Nigerian children would survive each day.

But what changes can countries make? Tax belongs to the people, so ‘Any reversal [of tax injustice] is most likely to start from the bottom up, with taxpayers becoming the key drivers of change’, as the Tax Justice Network Africa makes clear. Populations and taxpayers have the right to know and have information on how taxes are collected, where they are being levied, and how this affects them. Practically, governments should regularly publish revenue data and tax expenditures and disclose all agreements and treaties that affect revenue.

Fairer taxation is essential to fill the health financing gap for public sector health systems, including for universal coverage. Policies must promote equity between individuals with different incomes (vertical equity), ensuring that they benefit poorer groups. Countries should reject tax exemptions that reduce direct taxes on products that harm health, including gambling, tobacco and alcohol, or exempt selected sectors from taxes that fund health as an incentive for investment.

Building domestic capacity within revenue authorities to address tax abuse and expanding the tax base through taxing wealth and other fairer taxes will raise revenue, rather than focusing on the never-ending task of broadening the tax base by registering people who already survive on the bare minimum.

Regional collaboration is necessary to stop the race to the bottom in tax and reduce unnecessary tax exemptions for corporations that sweeten the deal for companies but are unnecessary for investment, and reduce a country’s tax revenue. Regional bodies like the African Tax Administration Forum in Africa and the Regional Platform for Tax Cooperation in Latin America and the Caribbean (PTLAC) are strengthening regional cooperation on tax matters. They also act as powerful blocs in international spaces, which, of course, reinforces their voices in a place dominated by economically powerful nations.

This brings us to the exciting period we are witnessing – the negotiations of a once-in-a-century opportunity for a United Nations tax convention. Why hasn’t this been in place before, you might wonder? The short version is that it’s a long story of the wealthiest nations, from the League of Nations through to the OECD, undermining efforts to better tax their multinational companies.

Reforming taxes in likely and unlikely places

The UN is more inclusive and representative, in contrast to the OECD’s domination in setting tax rules that benefit only their rich member countries (and even those rules are crumbling with recent developments in the US). In contrast, UN member states as signatories to international human rights treaties are legally bound to implement conventions. They are held accountable by UN bodies and can keep each other accountable transparently and in the public interest.

These new rules may emulate the ABCs of tax transparency, the Tax Justice Network has set out as part of the larger Global Alliance for Tax Justice. Initially dismissed as utopian, these measures formed the basis for global OECD-designed (but watered-down) tax transparency measures. They are now considered essential transparency rules supporting domestic enforcement so that tax authorities can audit corporations and trace untaxed offshore wealth, although there is still a long way to go.

Calls for international tax reform, and a shift to the UN as the place for rule-setting have become more urgent with the scale of global health challenges, including pandemics and the climate emergency. Leaving these challenges to dwindling overseas development aid and other forms of unpredictable or voluntary financing is problematic for the equity and sustainability in investment that these challenges urgently require.

Climate financing in the form of overseas development aid has failed to meet pledges or needs, with climate-related loans adding debt burdens to what are already inequitable climate burdens, carbon credit schemes using carbon markets while leaving the drivers of climate change unmanaged, and power left in the hands of high-income countries which are the primary drivers of the climate crisis.

Global influencers promoting tax transparency and tax justice, including redistribution, are emerging from unlikely places. A small but growing number of multinational companies voluntarily have Fair Tax Mark accreditation under the Global Multinational Business Standard, which signals that they abide by the principles of fair tax. This includes paying the right amount of tax (but no more) in the right place at the right time, according to both the letter and the spirit of the law. It also means companies are providing sufficient public information to enable their stakeholders to form a rounded and informed view of their beneficial ownership, tax conduct and financial presence (across the world if they are a multinational).

Wealthy individuals associated with the organisations Patriotic Millionaires and Millionaires for Humanity have asked to be taxed more on their assets and inheritance. In an open letter, millionaires and billionaires sent to leaders attending the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland in 2022, they wrote, ‘As millionaires, we know that the current tax system is not fair… The world—every country in it—must demand that the rich pay their fair share. Tax us, the rich, and tax us now.’

Activist communities and engaged policymakers are already shaping a world to stem tax abuse, tax systems within and across countries are becoming fairer, and taxes are effectively contributing to healthier societies. However, corporate resistance to this growing movement is strong and comes from many sides, which is why more people working in the public health sector need to join the struggle.

The elephant in the room of business & human rights

The abusive tax practices of multinational corporations are driving pervasive and chronic human rights violations all over the world. The issue of corporate tax abuse has somehow remained largely absent from implementation of the United Nations Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights (UNGPs), however. 

A new film and briefingCorporate Tax Abuse: the elephant in the room of business and human rights – demonstrates how taxation must be addressed in the implementation of the UNGPs, both by governments and by private sector entities. Through case studies of Ireland and Kenya, both of which have been vocal champions of the Business and Human Rights agenda, the report and film examine how human rights norms and standards should be incorporated into the design and implementation of taxation policies, the negotiation of international taxation agreements and the tax planning strategies of business actors. 

The UNGPs represent the definitive, authoritative interpretation of how international human rights law pertains to the distinct but complementary responsibilities and obligations of both states and business entities.  

During the negotiations that went before their adoption, powerful corporate lobbies succeeded in removing any explicit mention of taxation from the Principles. In the years since, however, the issues of just taxation and financial transparency have risen up the human rights agenda, amidst growing recognition of the determinative impact taxation – at both domestic and international levels – has on the full spectrum of human rights outcomes. Recognition of the significance of crossborder tax abuse led the United Nations Working Group on Business and Human Rights to highlight taxation as a crucial concern in its 2021 stocktaking of the first 10 years of the UNGPs.  

Meanwhile, the State of Tax Justice 2024 demonstrates that countries lose US $492 billion to crossborder tax abuse each year. Of this sum, the largest share – some $347 billion – is lost to cross-border tax abuse by multinationals, while $145 billion is lost to offshore tax abuse by wealthy individuals. This torrent of lost revenue decimates governments’ capacity to provide quality public services and, in turn, the realisation of fundamental human rights. And although it is the industrialised economies of the Global North that lose most in absolute terms, the impact on human rights realisation is far greater in poorer nations where the losses incurred represent a much higher proportion of government spending.  

Indeed, crossborder tax abuse may be the most severe and pervasive driver of human rights violations linked to the activities of business entities. It is for this reason that governments seeking to properly implement the UNGPs, and hold businesses to account for their human rights responsibilities, must address taxation as a core element of this commitment.  

Both this film and briefing were produced with support of the European Union (Horizon Europe Framework). Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the granting authority. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.

How the UN Model Tax Treaty shapes the UN Tax Convention behind the scenes

In March 2025, the UN Tax Committee finalised its 2025 update of the UN Model Convention, which serves as a template for bilateral tax treaties, particularly those signed by Global South countries. A new report by the Tax Justice Network analyses the many changes made to the UN Model. These changes are not without relevance for the upcoming negotiations on the UN Tax Convention. As explained in this blog, while formally without ties, the work of the Committee appears to be playing its part in shaping the direction of the Convention. The UN Model (2025) update may therefore be an indication of what is yet to come in the Convention negotiations.  

In this new report by the Tax Justice Network, we summarise and provide background on the many changes made in the 2025 update to the UN Model Convention.  

The 2025 update of the UN Model Convention received final approval by the UN Tax Committee during its 30th Session, held in Geneva in March 2025. The session was the last formal gathering of the Experts of the Committee’s 2021-2025 term. It also marked the final moment of formal approval for the many other policy instruments developed by the Committee over the last four years.  

As noted in a previous blog on this topic by Sol Picciotto, it is with remarkable energy that the outgoing membership of the UN Tax Committee delivered outputs covering a wide range of issues, including wealth and solidarity taxes (with  guidance on the taxation of wealth and a UN wealth tax sample law), environmental taxation, indirect taxes, health taxes, and refinement of transfer pricing guidance.  

Most eye-catching are of course the UN Tax Committee’s changes to its flagship publication, the UN Model Convention.  

Bilateral tax treaties can support domestic resource mobilisation as long as they implement a fair and equitable allocation of taxing rights. If not, tax treaties can quickly turn into liabilities for lower-income countries, carrying substantial unforeseen costs and freezing their policy space, especially in relation to locally active foreign companies. The UN Model Convention serves as the most important benchmark in this regard, and as a counterpoint to the model developed by the OECD. Whereas the OECD Model is skewed towards the interests of countries that are exporters of capital, technology and services, the UN Model strives to further the interests of countries that are importers.  

With each update of the UN Model, the UN Tax Committee continues its work on the strengthening of source state taxation rights under the model and tax treaties. This new report by the Tax Justice Network comments on the important changes made in the 2025 update of the UN Model Convention.  

New features of the UN Model (2025) 

The report provides a summary and background of the many changes made by the UN Tax Committee to the UN Model (2025). These changes range from alteration of the distributive rules for all types of cross-border services to a subject-to-tax rule and an important priority rule on the interplay between dispute resolution mechanisms in tax treaties and international investment agreements. 

Achieving more with less

Today, the UN Tax Committee is the only body of the UN that is fully dedicated to the development of cross-border tax policy instruments geared towards the interests and realities of countries in the Global South.  

As a non-governmental entity that is notoriously underfunded, the Committee’s outputs are essentially crowdsourced and rely on the time and goodwill of the Experts and observers who contribute to the technical work of the Committee’s subcommittees. As the Co-Chair of the Committee phrased it in her closing remarks at the 30th session: “thank you to your employers”–national governments, academia or civil society organisations. 

The G77 has long insisted to change this sorry state of affairs. A concerted effort by the G77 in 2015 at the Third International Conference on  Financing For Development Conference to upgrade the UN Tax Committee to a properly funded intergovernmental body to provide an inclusive forum to discuss global tax norms was blocked by countries including the UK and the US. These countries argued, among other reasons, that global tax discussions were already taking place under the OECD.  

Subsequent years of largely unsuccessful and not globally inclusive tax discussions at the OECD further fuelled Global South countries’ realisation of the need for  a more inclusive system of global tax governance. It is this failure to upgrade the UN Tax Committee, combined with a call by the African Group in 2019  and the African Union and Economic Commission for Africa in 2021 for the development of a UN tax convention to combat illicit financial flows and aimed at eliminating base erosion, profit shifting, tax evasion and other tax abuses, that has culminated in the currently ongoing negotiations of a UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation (UNFCITC). 

Committee’s relation status with the Convention: it’s complicated 

The question then arises: what is the UN Tax Committee’s relationship and position regarding the UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation?   

In short: there is no position or relationship. The UN Tax Committee has not expressed any points of view on the Convention and its negotiations. There is also no formal relationship between the work of the UN Tax Committee and the Convention. The Committee is a non-political and non-intergovernmental body tasked with the development of non-binding tax policy instruments geared towards the interests of Global South countries. The Convention is largely driven by the same goals but will be the result of an intergovernmental process of technical and political negotiations. If signed and ratified by countries, the Convention will create a binding international framework for tax governance at the United Nations. It remains to be seen what the position of the UN Tax Committee will be. As negotiations begin, the clearest proposal is for the tax committee to be adopted as a subsidiary body under the Convention’s new governance structure. 

In the meantime, many of the Experts of the 2021-2025 term of the Committee have assumed roles in country delegations participating in the Convention negotiations. A few of them (including the Co-Chairs of the Committee) have assumed positions of co-leads in the Convention negotiation workstreams. The Convention process and the UN Tax Committee also rely on the same secretariat staff at the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs.  

Given the history and the people involved in key positions, it was to be expected that some of the discussions held at the UN Tax Committee would feed into the Convention negotiations, and that the Convention may be more aligned with the Committee’s work than some might expect. 

The release of the Draft Issues Notes for each of the three negotiation workstreams seems to confirm this expectation. 

We have (draft) issues 

Heavily anticipated by non-country stakeholders, the release of the Draft Issues Notes on 27 June 2025 provides a first glimpse of the direction the upcoming negotiations will take on the three workstreams. These workstreams are: Workstream I on the framework convention; Workstream II on the taxation of services; and Workstream III on dispute prevention and resolution. 

As noted by the workstream co-leads during the multi-stakeholder briefings, the Draft Issues Notes reflect what countries have been debating in frequent virtual meetings – some reportedly attended by over one hundred countries – in the three workstreams of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee of the Convention.  

The Draft Issues Notes do not necessarily reveal much about the actual rules or policy decisions that will eventually have to be made in the Convention, but they do provide valuable insight into the issues and solutions on country delegates’ minds. 

Many of these issues and solutions are remarkably close to the discussions held at the UN Tax Committee in recent years. In the Note on Workstream II on the taxation of services, the co-Leads emphasize the possibility of keeping the services protocol broad in scope, rejecting the Secretariat’s implicit suggestion that it should apply only to digital services. The Note then continues by explaining the unsatisfactory solution for the taxation of cross-border services in the OECD Model and the effort by the UN Tax Committee to develop alternative rules in the UN Model Convention, including references to some of the new rules such as Article 12AA, Article 12C, and new Article 8 (Alternative A), which have been added to the UN Model in 2025 and  are  discussed in the Tax Justice Network’s new report on the UN Model (2025)

It is also noted in the Draft Issues Note that the focus in the workstream has largely been on the provisions of bilateral tax treaties and how they restrict or eliminate source taxation. It is therefore not implausible that the protocol may eventually become a multilateral implementation of the UN Model’s own allocation rules on services.  

After all, with this recent update, the UN Tax Committee has completed its mission to provide a solution for source taxation rules for fees for all types of cross-border services, whether these are automated digital services (in Article 12B, added to the UN Model in 2021),  international air and maritime shipping services (in Article 8), or any other high and low value services in between (in Article 12AA). The solution proposed under the UN Model is, however, the taxation of services on gross basis by means of withholding taxes levied by the source state on fees for services paid by local payers to non-resident service providers. The gross taxation approach may not be ideal, but it is certainly a feasible solution, and one which is already embraced by many countries in the Global South and therefore should be reckoned with in the protocol negotiations 

Similarly, in the Note on Workstream III on dispute prevention and resolution, the co-leads reiterate a prior note by the Secretariat which, among other things, mentions the use of mandatory binding arbitration under international investment agreements to address tax-related disputes and the fact that countries have questioned the inclusiveness, effectiveness, and fairness of this approach.  This led the Secretariat to conclude that a more multilateral approach to this issue could help stabilise and bring greater certainty and fairness to the international tax environment.  

Interestingly, this too can be seen as a clear hint by the Secretariat and the Workstream Leads for the Convention to continue the work done by the UN Tax Committee on this matter. As discussed in our new report, the new extended provision in Article 25 of the UN Model (2025) has been the Committee’s groundwork to reshape the skewed relationship between tax dispute settlement under investment treaties and tax treaties. 

In any event, the outgoing UN Tax Committee has contributed powerfully to the international landscape. Whether its legacy is to shape fundamentally the UN Convention remains to be seen. 

One-page policy briefs: ABC policy reforms and human rights in the UN tax convention

Get ready for UN tax talks with our ABC’s cheat sheets

In preparation for the next round of UN tax talks in August, the Tax Justice Network is producing a series of one page policy briefs on the ABC’s of tax justice and how the UN tax convention can deliver on these.

Today, we’re publishing the first three of these cheat sheets, covering the policy topics of Automatic exchange of information, Beneficial ownership transparency and public Country by country reporting.

These briefings are designed to provide a brief overview of these tax and financial transparency policies, explain why they are important for policymakers, highlight the human rights obligations underpinning these areas, and outline the most important provisions that international tax cooperation must deliver on in order to comply with the mandate to create inclusive and effective global tax governance that complies with human rights obligations.

Download policy cheat sheets

Automatic exchange of information

Beneficial ownership transparency

Country by country reporting

Upcoming UN tax talks

In just two month’s time, the next round of UN intergovernmental negotiations on global tax reforms will begin as member states convene in New York once again for the first and second substantive sessions on the UN tax convention, or the UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation (UNFCITC).

But what does this actually mean for you and me?

Tax is often obfuscated as a murky technocratic subject removed from our lives; something that ministers discuss in a sphere of theoretical economics that distracts us from the political agenda that is firmly in the driving seat. But, we all pay taxes. We are all affected by taxes. And the way that tax policy is designed can have far reaching impact on our lives, whether we see it or not.

Tax policy has the ability to raise revenue for the provision of public goods and services and also influence the behaviour of taxpayers and businesses to align with broader public goals such as growth and redistribution or even strengthening democracyNOTESee the fourth R, Representation, from the report Tax Justice & Human Rights: The 4Rs and the realisation of rights for more on how tax policy can strengthen democracy and representation..

Revenue is required for realising human rights. How governments collect that revenue (from whom and in what way) and what they do with it (fund the right to health or the right to education, for example) has far reaching consequences for our lives and can serve to strengthen and protect human rights and sustainable development, or can choose to disregard human rights and further entrench systemic inequalities.

From 4 to 15 August 2025, member states will come together to begin drafting the framework convention text and the two early protocols: Digital Services and Dispute Resolution. After intense rounds of negotiations to draft the Terms of Reference for the UN tax convention during 2024, it is a good moment to reflect on where and why this process began, with a call from the African Group for a more inclusive and effective tax cooperation at the United Nations. This was followed by a 2023 report by the UN Secretary General which concluded that existing international tax rules developed through the prevailing system are neither fair nor inclusive and that rules developed through OECD mechanisms “do not adequately address the needs and priorities of developing countries”.

In addition to striving to develop a system that is inclusive and effective and therefore has some semblance of legitimacy within a global context, States have also agreed to operate under certain principles in the drafting of the framework convention. These include a commitment to align with “States’ existing obligations under international human rights law” as well as to contribute to “achieving sustainable development by ensuring fairness in allocation of taxing rights”.

As the world’s nation states approach a critical opportunity to reprogramme the international tax system to ensure regulations are aligned with human rights and sustainable development goals, we hope that these policy briefs add to the lexicon of available Tax Justice Network resources and help provide a simple breakdown of the most important aspects of the fundamental building blocks of tax justice. We invite policymakers, civil society organizations, and the general public alike to advocate for inclusive and effective tax governance on an equal playing field for all.

Bad Medicine: A Clear Prescription = tax transparency

Big pharma competes bitterly with the tech giants for the title of most dodgy corporate sector in the world. Given this battle, it is astonishing that, on 27 May 2025, nearly one quarter of shareholders at Merck & Co (MRK, known outside of North America as Merck Sharp & Dohme or MSD), one of the largest in the big pharma sector, voted in favour of greater tax transparency. While this will not immediately change corporate practices, it demonstrates that a significant portion of global investors continue to support greater tax transparency. Corporate executives would be foolish not to take note.

This shareholder resolution, the only one of its kind this year, requested that Merck comply with the Global Reporting Initiative Tax Standard, which includes the most widely accepted format for public country-by-country reporting. This resolution follows others at Microsoft, Amazon, Cisco and Brookfield in previous years, which received similar levels of shareholder support. The significant level of support on a new issue is impressive since prior to these recent efforts, tax transparency had rarely been raised by investors at North American corporations. The prevailing narrative had been that the less tax a corporation pays, the more profits for investors, but that is shifting…

Increasingly, investors are aware that aggressive tax avoidance has its risks. Likewise, long-term investors want corporations to compete based on quality, innovation and smart business strategies rather than a willingness and ability to exploit short-term loopholes. Corporations can’t continue to claim social responsibility and then avoid tax obligations where sales are made. Microsoft, now facing a nearly UD$30 billion IRS audit – perhaps the biggest corporate tax bill in world history – is a clear case. While Microsoft claims to support the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals, it continues to shift global profits away from where products are sold to places like Ireland. In the short term Ireland is raking in revenue, but this is at the expense of countries around the world missing out on funding for health, education, sanitation and basic infrastructure.

Big pharma’s global tax dodging has been the focus of excellent analyses by Oxfam over many years. More recently, big pharma’s profit shifting has also been the focus of US Senate investigations and even garnered attention from President Trump, who proposed tackling the issue with a fresh round of tariffs on Ireland. However, big pharma’s tax dodging is even more problematic than in other sectors since it benefits hugely from public spending, tax incentives and subsidies.

Tax transparency should be required across the board from all multinationals, as Merck and others have argued – to avoid taking a lead. The good news is that Merck and many other multinationals will now be required to report on a partial country by country basis in Australia. Theoretically, Merck will be required to comply with the EU directive on public country by country reporting as well and has told shareholders it will do so. However, Romania was the first EU country to implement the directive and Merck choose to only report on Romania and not any other EU jurisdiction.

US Big Pharma Pays Nothing in US Tax

Merck has something to hide and dodges more tax in the US than any other country. A recent analysis of tax payments of the six largest US big pharma corporations revealed a collective US tax bill of less than zero in 2024, following the same pattern in the prior year. That analysis concludes that “it’s the predictable result of the tax and production structures that most large U.S. pharmaceutical companies have adopted following the 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA).” Trump’s first round tax cuts are now being extended in the “One Big Beautiful Bill” which is shaping up as a protection racket for US multinationals to continue to avoid US taxes and threatening countries collecting tax on profits earned by US corporations from sales in their own jurisdiction.

Of these six US big pharma corporations, Merck may be the dodgiest. Despite reporting more than half of its revenue in the US, it reported a loss of almost $2 billion in the US while making $22 billion abroad in 2024. Without public country by country reporting, it is difficult to know where Merck does business and pays tax (or not) outside of the US. Amgen, another of the six US big pharma corporations is already being pursued by the IRS for a US$10.7 billion tax bill after shifting profits to Puerto Rico and it faces a class action shareholder lawsuit for failure to disclose its liabilities in a timely manner.

Under the Trump administration, tax dodging in the US by the largest US multinationals will likely get even worse, but there is progress elsewhere.

Looking Up from Down Under

Even before the implementation of Australia’s public country by country reporting requirement, it is possible to get a glimpse of Merck’s global tax practices, looking from down under and up. The view will be even clearer in 2026, when Merck – and many other multinationals with at least AUD$10 million in revenue in Australia – will be required, for the first time, to publicly report on the basic financial details of its subsidiaries in Switzerland, Bermuda, Singapore, Panama, Cyprus, Hong Kong and the Cayman Islands.

Merck Sharp & Dohme (Holdings) Pty Ltd. is Merck’s primary subsidiary in Australia. Data published by the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) and compiled here, shows that Merck had nearly AUD$1.4 billion in revenue in the 2023 financial year and paid only $20.8 million in tax. This represents an estimated profit margin in Australia of 11.3% and an effective tax rate of 13.4%, less than half of Australia’s 30% corporate tax rate. Over a decade (2014-2023) the estimated profit margin averaged 9.13% with an average effective tax rate of only 12.9%. If actual profit margins in Australia were closer to Merck’s global margins (currently above 27% and averaging nearly 20% over the last 5 years), and the rate of tax paid was closer to the statutory rate, this would represent hundreds of millions in additional tax payments owed in Australia. Possible lost tax revenue in other countries, with less transparency and less enforcement, may be far greater.

A review of the most recent (2023) financial statement of Merck Sharp & Dohme (Holdings) Pty Ltd reveals how it may be artificially reducing taxable income and significantly lowering its tax payable in Australia. Firstly, the Australian company’s immediate parent is MSD Human Health Holdings B.V. in the Netherlands. This Dutch entity was paid $18.7 million in dividends in 2023 and $20 million in 2022. The Australian entity reported sales revenue of $717 million in 2023, but this included related party purchases (“made on normal commercial terms”) of $625 million with an outstanding balance payable of $137 million. These purchases were made with several Merck subsidiaries in tax havens. However, the largest direct source of finished goods sold in Australia is most likely Singapore subsidiary Merck Sharp & Dohme Asia Pacific Serves Pte Ltd. This appears to be a tell-tale sign of classic multinational tax dodging, with Singapore playing a central role in profit-shifting in the Asia-Pacific region.

Interestingly, the Singapore subsidiary has the same immediate parent as the top-level Australian subsidiary and then follows a string of ownership through the Netherlands and on to Delaware. The structure, as displayed in the chart below with the seven Dutch companies in orange, does not seem to represent any rational business purpose. There is considerably more transparency in Australia, Singapore and the Netherlands, so we can see this structure, but it is likely that its operations in the US and around the world are structured in a similar manner which would have the effect of minimising tax paid everywhere.

Simplified Structure of Merck’s Australian Business
Merck not Murky for long…

Merck can hide its murky profit shifting and tax dodging for a bit longer, but greater tax transparency is coming soon. Some global companies, over 150, are leading the way now. Others will linger in the dark as long as possible before being forced out into the sunlight. The scale of multinational tax dodging is already clear, but soon the public will know more about who, where and how. At that point, further demands for specific changes in corporate behaviour and calls for reforms to level the playing field and fund the public services and the just transition we all need, will be unstoppable!

[Image credit: Alexander Grey, Unsplash]

Tax justice pays dividends – fair corporate taxation grows jobs, shrinks inequality

Governments keep cutting headline corporate‑tax rates in the hope of attracting investment and “creating jobs”. Yet the most comprehensive cross‑country study to date tells a different story. Led by economist Agustina Gallardo –  a leading economist in public-policy evaluation and impact analysis – and developed in close coordination with Public Services International, the Network of Unions for Tax Justice, and a wider group of independent trade‑unionists, the research dismantles the myth that lower corporate taxes automatically translate into more jobs. Instead, it shows that stronger, fairer corporate tax collection underpins both decent employment and a larger share of national income flowing to wages.  

What our cross‑country data reveal  

Using over 600 data points across income groups—tax records going back to the 1990s and job‑and‑wage data for 2013‑21—the study tracks how much tax companies pay, compares it with job numbers, and sees what share of each country’s income ends up in workers’ wages. Three clear signals emerge:  

  1. Higher overall tax pressure, including corporate taxes, goes hand‑in‑hand with higher shares of formal employment.  
  1. Countries that raise more from corporate tax tend to have a higher labour‑income share — in other words, wages claim a bigger slice of the national pie.  
  1. Simply cutting nominal or effective tax rates shows no consistent link with job creation – and often coexists with high informality when enforcement is weak.  

Stronger revenues, stronger formal employment  

Across the countries studied, those that collect more tax overall generally enjoy higher levels of formal employment. In high‑income economies tax pressure hovers around 35 percent of GDP while formal employment stays above 49 percent of the working‑age population – The pattern is steady: countries that take in more tax overall also have more people working in formal jobs. When governments have steady tax income, they can invest in good schools, skills training, innovation and infrastructure — the ingredients that help businesses grow and move workers into secure, formal jobs. By contrast, weak tax takes often coincide with evasion strategies that hide both profits and payrolls.  

Bigger tax take, bigger wage share  

Revenue matters for distribution, too. Across the dataset, countries that raise more from corporate taxes also see a larger share of national income going to wages—a link that stands out most strongly in high‑income economies. Put simply, when companies pay their fair share, workers get more of the value they create.  

Why cutting rates still won’t guarantee jobs  

What about the classic lobbyist claim that lower corporate‑tax rates fuel employment? When the study matches countries’ rates with their formal‑employment levels, it finds no reliable positive link—if anything, the relationship often tilts the other way. Some nations with higher rates enjoy healthy job markets, while many low‑rate economies remain mired in informality. In most cases, the drag on employment comes from weak enforcement and profit‑shifting loopholes, not from the headline rate itself.  

Policy steps unions are putting on the table  

Armed with this evidence, trade‑union movements are pressing for reforms that tie revenue to decent work:  

Each measure strengthens the revenue–employment–wage chain discussed above, giving governments fiscal space to enforce labour standards and fund active‑labour‑market policies.  

Putting the evidence to work  

This new research reflects a wider historical trend:  countries such ad the United States, Australia, and European nations experienced their strongest periods of economic growth and industrialization during eras with higher corporate tax rates, particularly in the post-World War II period.  

After decades of lies about tax cuts and trickle down economics, working people are angry at an economic system which is not working in their interest. The false promises of job growth from tax cuts peddled by corporate lobbyists have only made things worst. This research finally provides the evidence, debunking the claim that lower corporate taxes support jobs and growth, and helps explain the low-wage, low-growth, high-inequality trap many economies have suffered for decades.  

Such evidence shows the race to the bottom is neither inevitable nor benign.  Fair corporate taxation is a pro‑job, pro‑wage, pro-development policy. These findings can inform budget debates, labour‑law reforms and the emerging UN tax‑agreement discussions.  

Read the full report: Corporate taxation & employment: dispelling the race‑to‑the‑bottom myth.  

Reclaiming tax sovereignty to transform global climate finance

Executive Summary

Climate finance is often framed as a search for new money. Our analysis and the climate finance slider released with this report, shows that the real issue is not scarcity but capture. Extreme wealth and undertaxed multinational profits are plentiful; what is missing is countries’ ability and willingness to tax them. This ability, tax sovereignty, has been weakened both by global rules that favour profit shifting and by domestic policies shaped by those who benefit most from the status quo.

We offer a blueprint for a global climate finance pool funded through progressive reforms. This report makes a critical contribution to the fight for fair and sufficient climate finance by:

Two case studies illustrate two very different tales of tax sovereignty, and the devastating linkages to climate justice and public finance. In Tanzania, we showcase how taxing rights are diluted by profit-based mining agreements, long-life stabilisation clauses that lock in tax breaks, and treaty rules that shift taxing rights abroad, all compounded by limited capacity to audit and litigate with multinational corporations. In the United Kingdom, tax sovereignty is self-restricted by successive cuts to top rates and lack of a net wealth tax, a patchwork of incentives (such as the non-dom regime) that invite underpayment, and the City’s influence over policy. The UK also incentivises profit shifting through its overseas territories, weakening its own and other countries’ tax bases.

Together, our findings demonstrate that claims of “no fiscal space” are convenient narratives, not economic facts. The report recommends the following:

Priority actions for civil society coalitions and allies

Technical actions for governments

Reclaiming tax sovereignty through these steps would not merely fill a funding gap. It would reshape global taxation to serve climate justice and restore democratic control over public finances. Revenue can be raised fairly and reliably from those most able to pay and directed to where they are most urgently needed.

1. The climate finance crisis is a crisis of power, not of resources

Countries have systematically failed to meet even the modest US$100 billion per year climate finance pledge made by developed countries at COP15 in 2009. Yet estimates now suggest that the annual cost of addressing the climate crisis around the world may reach US$9 trillion by 2030[1]. Every moment of inaction drives this figure higher. The chronic failure to mobilise and institutionalise adequate and fair climate finance is not simply a question of broken promises. It reflects political and economic power dynamics within an unjust global system.

To date, climate finance strategies have relied heavily on three pillars: voluntary contributions through public pledges, such as the US$100 billion goal for adaptation and mitigation agreed at COP15; market-based mechanisms, such as carbon trading and green bonds; and blended finance approaches designed to leverage private capital. But all three have fallen short. Voluntary pledges remain unmet, carbon markets have struggled with credibility and equity[2] issues, and private investment continues to prioritise profit over long-term resilience and justice.

By contrast, tax revenue, especially when raised through progressive and redistributive measures, offers a reliable, sovereign and equitable means of financing climate action. Taxes can be designed to reflect responsibility and ability to pay, while also strengthening democratic mandates and public trust. In the face of escalating climate costs, fiscal policy must become a central tool in delivering both national and global climate finance commitments. Financing climate action sooner rather than later is critical. This includes reparative finance for loss and damage to compensate countries harmed by a crisis they did not cause, as well as funding for adaptation and mitigation.

1.1 Why this report, and why now

Governments across the globe continue to claim that resources are scarce or unavailable. However, in reality, trillions in untapped tax revenue exist within the current global financial architecture[3]. What is missing is not money, but political will. Taxation is not merely a budgetary tool—it is a survival mechanism.

This report starts from the recognition that the climate crisis is not fundamentally a crisis of resources. It is a crisis of power, political capture and imagination. As others have noted[4], the real obstacle to change is not an absolute lack of revenue, but a failure to reimagine what progress looks like in a warming, deeply unequal world. Fossil-fuelled development paths are assumed to be inevitable or necessary, even when they are economically inefficient, environmentally devastating and politically unjust. We argue that tax, often seen as too technical or divisive, is central to breaking through this stalemate.

Specifically, we must revisit how tax sovereignty is understood and exercised in the face of the climate emergency. Tax sovereignty, the ability of states to set and enforce their own tax policies in the sovereign interest of their own people and without external interference, is often invoked by governments as a shield to protect their freedom not to tax. But in a world on fire, that freedom is no longer neutral. When the costs of the climate crisis are rising rapidly and falling most heavily on those who did least to cause it, the decision not to mobilise available tax revenues, particularly from extreme wealth or polluting profits, is no longer simply a domestic prerogative. It becomes a crisis of power, not of resources.

Today, many governments still misuse or underuse their tax sovereignty, upholding the right not to tax in ways that prevent urgently needed public finance from being raised. Many other governments are limited in their ability to exercise their tax sovereignty. This, in turn, creates a race to the bottom, making it more difficult for other countries to maximise revenue raising. Additionally, many governments have made choices to be tied down in international tax and investment protection treaties, many of which were signed before the climate emergency escalated. Undoing these choices is difficult and curtails the exercise of full tax sovereignty needed to address present climate challenges.

In this report, we focus on two specific trends:

In the Global North, governments have failed to harness the full potential of progressive taxation. Wealth taxes, which can raise trillions of US dollars annually, remain almost entirely absent, even as extreme wealth concentration and carbon-intensive capital accumulation violate the polluter pays principle. Generous subsidies and incentives[5] to polluting industries, along with sustained tax cuts, further undermine the fiscal base for climate action.

In the Global South, tax sovereignty is actively undermined, either through past decisions to be bound by outdated international treaties or through external political pressure that prevents a country from exercising its sovereignty.

Collectively, countries lose hundreds of billions of US dollars each year through corporate profit shifting and tax abuse. International tax rules, largely shaped by the OECD and wealthy countries, limit the taxing rights of developing nations. Illicit financial flows, often channelled through secrecy jurisdictions that enable opacity in financial systems to facilitate tax abuse and are hosted by the Global North, rob (all) governments of urgently needed revenue to finance their own transitions as well as promoting wasteful corruption. This is compounded by the failure of international climate finance mechanisms to deliver timely and sufficient support.

To address the climate crisis at the scale required, we must abandon the prevailing narrative of scarcity. Climate finance is too often framed as a matter of limited fiscal space, best addressed, it is claimed, through voluntary contributions, carbon markets or private investment flows. This narrative obscures the deeper issue: a refusal to tax existing wealth and profit in ways that would fund a just transition. Taxation must be reframed as a cornerstone of climate justice.  So must tax sovereignty, not as a shield for inaction, but as a tool for survival.

1.2 Tax sovereignty, human rights and reparations

This report rests on a set of core principles[6]:

Climate finance must be understood not as charity but as a matter of global justice and legal obligation. The Maastricht Principles on the Extraterritorial Obligations of States affirm that governments have responsibilities to avoid harm and to promote equity beyond their borders. This legal framework aligns with the Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and polluter pays principles, which recognise the disproportionate role of wealthy nations and polluters in causing the crisis, and their duty to finance its solutions.

A reparations-based approach to climate finance affirms that countries in the Global South have a right to access adequate, fair and reliable funding, not because of goodwill but because of ecological debt owed. Taxation is central to delivering this finance. Properly designed progressive tax policy, such as wealth taxes and rules to stop cross- border tax abuse, can not only mobilise the required revenue but also reduce inequality and limit the excess consumption of the very wealthy. Tax is both a fiscal and behavioural tool.

To make this argument tangible, this report introduces a new interactive tool: the climate finance slider. Based on original Tax Justice Network country level data, the tool allows users to explore how much revenue could be generated through two key tax justice reforms: introducing wealth taxes and curbing cross-border tax abuse. Crucially, it allows users to allocate this revenue between domestic spending and global climate finance contributions. This illustrates a key argument: it is a false choice to pit national spending priorities against global obligations.

The climate finance slider demonstrates that countries, including those in the Global South, can simultaneously raise public finance at home and contribute to international climate finance, provided tax sovereignty is reclaimed and fairly exercised. Most countries, in fact, are likely to be net recipients under a progressive system. What stands in the way is not technical feasibility. It is entrenched inequality and political resistance.

This report places tax sovereignty at the heart of climate justice. Many countries want to implement tax reforms to raise public revenue and finance domestic transitions but cannot do so because their sovereignty is constrained. Other countries are better able to act but choose not to implement such measures because they are perceived not to be in the national interest. Through case studies, policy recommendations, and data derived from our work on wealth taxation and longstanding research on tax abuse, we show how rethinking taxation, both globally and domestically, can help close the climate finance gap and build fairer societies in the process.

2. Inequality in a warming world: Climate breakdown and fiscal power

This section unpacks the core injustices embedded in the climate finance crisis, including what is needed, who is paying and who is not. It illustrates how entrenched global inequalities, including in taxing rights and fiscal capacity, undermine just responses to a warming world, and how wealthy nations and multinational corporations continue to benefit from existing frameworks.

2.1 The climate finance gap: costs, needs and broken promises

The global community is failing to deliver on even its most modest climate finance pledges. The US$100 billion annual target, first committed to at COP15 in 2009, has repeatedly been missed[7]. Current pledges for the Loss and Damage fund are far below the hundreds of billions of dollars that frontline communities will need. Financial needs are ballooning. By 2030, the combined cost of climate adaptation, mitigation and loss and damage may reach US$9 trillion annually[8].

These costs are not abstract: they translate into lives lost, livelihoods destroyed, and entire regions rendered uninhabitable. Climate-vulnerable countries need at least US$1.3 trillion a year by 2030 just for mitigation and adaptation[9]. Global climate finance remains severely underfunded, especially the loss and damage fund, which to date relies on inadequate, ad hoc and discretionary pledges from some rich countries rather than enforceable, fairly quantified contributions.

Meanwhile, the burden of domestic transitions is rising everywhere. Germany, for example, needs an additional €70 billion annually to reach climate neutrality[10]. Indonesia requires US$8 billion in new investments every year to align its energy sector with net zero targets[11]. South Africa’s Just Energy Transition Investment Plan (JET-IP) outlines a requirement of approximately US$98 billion over the next five years to initiate the shift from coal to renewable energy sources.

And although the scale of climate finance needs remains daunting, there are signs of cautious optimism. The cost of renewable energy technologies continues to fall and early public investment can reduce long term transition costs. This dynamic is reflected in recent modelling by the UK’s Climate Change Committee[12], among others.

But the failure to raise the necessary climate finance is not due to a lack of resources. It stems from political and corporate obstruction to mobilise revenue, particularly through fair taxation. This report argues that the narrative of revenue scarcity must be replaced with a narrative of power, responsibility and justice. Countries are not unable to raise climate finance. They are unwilling and often constrained in their ability to use the tools available to do so.

While this report focuses on international public finance flows between countries, it is important to acknowledge that funding climate policy also happens through domestic level investment by governments, households and the private sector[13].

2.2. Climate inequality: Who pays and who bears the cost

We use the term climate injustice to refer to the disproportionate climate impacts on those communities least responsible for emissions. Climate injustice is deeply intertwined with economic inequality, both between and within countries, historic and current.

As Oxfam and others have shown, the wealthiest nations and the wealthiest individuals within them are responsible for most historical and current carbon emissions. For example, the world’s wealthiest 1 per cent of people are responsible for more carbon emissions than the poorest half of humanity combined[14]. This level of carbon emissions is not incidental. It is structural. It is tied to patterns of luxury consumption, asset ownership and political capture. Rich communities can better insulate themselves against climate shocks like extreme weather events. Yet it is the poorest countries and communities who are most exposed to the worst effects of climate breakdown.

Progressive taxation, including on wealth, is therefore not just a revenue imperative. It is also a tool for reining in overconsumption and excess political and economic influence among those at the top of the economic distribution. Historic marginal tax rates of up to 95 per cent[15] were not only important for raising revenue. They also signalled social disapproval of extremes in the distribution, and imposed an upper limit on individual income and wealth holdings. Globally, former colonial powers have built enormous wealth through fossil-fuelled industrialisation and continue to dominate financial and tax systems that extract wealth from the Global South[16]. Even the diversification and ultimately greening of Europe’s energy systems, by some measures, continues to operate through those same extractivist principles[17]. For example, green colonialism depletes energy reserves and critical minerals in the Global South to power Global North infrastructure[18]. Multinational oil and gas projects degrade local ecosystems and deplete essential resources like groundwater.

Despite this, climate finance remains largely voluntary and disconnected from the polluter pays and CBDR principles[19]. A just approach to climate finance requires not only acknowledging unequal contributions to the crisis but also addressing the mechanisms that allow those responsible to avoid paying their fair share. These mechanisms include preferential tax treatments for polluting sectors[20], ‘greenlaundering’ by financial institutions and fossil fuel corporations to obscure the true scale of fossil fuel finance[21] and mechanisms to facilitate profit shifting, aggressive tax planning and tax abuse more generally.

Fair taxation, especially through the introduction of wealth taxes and reforms to limit tax abuse, offers some of the most just, effective and sustainable ways to operationalise this principle.

2.3 Tax sovereignty and the political economy of climate injustice

At the heart of the climate crisis lies a deep fiscal injustice: many of the countries most exposed to the consequences of rising temperatures are those least equipped to raise revenue for adaptation, mitigation and loss and damage. Their inability to do so is not simply a matter of administrative or economic underdevelopment, but the result of a long history of international rules, corporate strategies, illicit financial flows and political choices that have hollowed out their tax capacity and sovereignty.

A country’s tax capacity refers to its ability to effectively raise revenue through taxation. It is one of the clearest indicators related to the appropriate and effective use of tax sovereignty in light of the climate emergency, and its fiscal power more broadly. It is also a critical precondition for meaningful climate action. While high income countries typically collect 30 to 40 per cent of their GDP in tax revenue, many low and middle income countries collect less than 20 per cent, with some as low as 10 per cent. This gap reflects both domestic challenges and international constraints, as explored in the following sections.

Without sufficient tax capacity, governments cannot fund basic public services, let alone the transition to a low carbon economy. While domestic reform is essential, many of the most powerful barriers to building tax capacity lie outside national borders.

How tax sovereignty is undermined:

Sovereignty, including tax sovereignty, is often celebrated in principle but constrained in practice, especially for countries in the Global South. These constraints include:

These dynamics form a system of fiscal neocolonialism, where the ability to govern through taxation is systematically undermined. A stark illustration of the role of power dynamics is provided currently by the second Trump presidency[22], which has committed from day one to curtail the sovereignty of all other countries to tax US multinationals fairly. Countries are left to rely on regressive consumption taxes, volatile natural resource rents, or debt.

Climate justice, however, requires not just ambition, but capacity. Without the fiscal tools to raise revenue equitably, low-income and climate vulnerable countries are forced into impossible trade-offs, such as between education and adaptation, or debt service and disaster response. This is why reclaiming tax sovereignty, through both national reforms and international rule changes, is not only a matter of fiscal justice but a prerequisite for climate justice.

2.4 Realising full and fair sovereignty: Typical wealth tax and anti-tax abuse reforms

Having explored why fiscal space is constrained, we now show how governments can expand it. Two reform families can mobilise resources at scale while reinforcing tax sovereignty and fairness: progressive net wealth taxation and curbing corporate tax abuse. These two sets of reforms naturally complement each other: wealth taxes target stocks of money, whereas anti-tax abuse rules target flows and thus different bases. If tax treaty reform or implementation delays unitary taxation, a domestic wealth tax still delivers revenue and vice-versa. Both sets of reforms also focus on households and firms most responsible for historic emissions, aligning revenue potential with the polluter pays principle.

2.4.1 Progressive net wealth taxation

A net wealth tax complements inheritance, estate, property and capital gains taxes by levying an annual tax on private fortunes, either instead of or in addition to taxes on income. Net wealth taxation matters because it:

Typical design features include:

In high-income economies, a net wealth tax may yield around 1 to 2 per cent of GDP annually. For example, an enhanced version of Spain’s net wealth tax is projected to raise roughly €10.7 billion a year.[23] In lower income countries, the tax base may be smaller in absolute terms but still significant relative to public budgets.

2.4.2 Curbing corporate tax abuse

Cross-border tax abuse by multinational corporations costs countries hundreds of billions per year. Three core, complementary measures can address this:

MeasureWhat it doesIndicative revenue
Unitary taxation with formulary apportionmentTreats a multinational as one firm and allocates its global profit to where real economic activity occurs+0.5 to 1 per cent GDP[24]
Minimum effective tax rate (around 25 per cent)Top-up rules neutralise low rate jurisdictions and harmful incentivesIncluded above, prevents erosion
Transparency toolsCountry by country reporting, beneficial ownership registries, automatic information exchangeEnforcement multiplier

While these figures are indicative, and the size of revenue collected depends on factors such as economic structure and enforcement capacity, a resource rich lower middle-income country like Tanzania, for example, shifting from separate entity accounting to unitary rules could recapture roughly 0.8 per cent of GDP currently lost[25].

3.        Enough for both: reclaiming tax sovereignty to overcome climate finance scarcity

This section introduces a new interactive tool: a country-by-country climate finance slider that lets readers explore how revenue raised from two key tax justice reforms could be allocated between domestic investment and contributions to a global climate finance mechanism. The tool is based on the Tax Justice Network’s State of Tax Justice data[26] quantifying losses from cross-border tax abuse, and our modelling of a moderate net wealth tax[27]. All details of the data and associated calculations can be found in the methodology note.

What the tool makes visible is the extent of untapped revenue—and with it, the power of tax sovereignty and fiscal self-determination. Instead of theprevailing scarcity narrative around public finance, countries do not in fact face a binary choice between addressing domestic needs or contributing to global climate finance. Through progressive tax policies, most could easily do both. Revenue could be channelled into domestic decarbonisation policies, adaptation measures and essential public services. Simultaneously, countries could contribute fairly to global climate finance. As previously explained, on top of ongoing improvements in domestic climate finance flows, it is this international climate finance from developed countries to developing countries to support climate action that remains dramatically underfunded.

At the basis of these reforms lies reclaimed and fairly exercised tax sovereignty. It is an essential lever that makes self-determined, inclusive climate action possible, without countries having to choose between domestic and global spending.

3.1 How the slider works

The climate finance slider is an interactive tool that lets users explore what countries could raise and allocate if two major tax justice reforms were enacted: (1) a moderate annual net wealth tax, and (2) effective measures to end cross-border tax abuse by multinational corporations.

For each country, the tool calculates the total potential revenue available from these reforms using estimates from the Tax Justice Network. This revenue can then be split between domestic spendingand global climate finance contributions. Users control this allocation through a sliding bar, visualising how policy choices affect both national budgets and international solidarity.

The slider also uses two global indicators to determine each country’s role. Responsibility is calculated as a country’s share of historical territorial emissions as proxy to calculate its fair contribution to global climate finance. Need is calculated based on each country’s vulnerability to climate change. Details can be found in the methodology note.

For every country, the slider shows:

In short, the slider reveals what countries could achieve if tax justice were made real—and if tax sovereignty were exercised fully and fairly. It does not predict what will happen but shows what is possible under a fair and just system.

The slider is available here.

3.2 Who is missing, and why it matters

While the climate finance slider aims to be global, some countries and jurisdictions are missing due to incomplete data. This reflects gaps in historical emissions and climate vulnerability data. Without both variables, we cannot estimate fair contributions or needs, and therefore, these cases are excluded from the tool. As explained in the methodology note, the choice not to use imputation techniques or proxy data is deliberate to avoid distorting results. Critically, missing data is not random—it reflects patterns of power, invisibility, and contested sovereignty.

What is not measured is often just as important as what is[28]. Countries like Palestine, or jurisdictions such as the British Virgin Islands, Hong Kong or Jersey are excluded not simply because data is incomplete, but because they occupy politically marginal or deliberately obscured positions. Some are territories without full sovereignty, unable to participate in international negotiations. Others are major players in the global offshore tax system. These omissions highlight how those with the most to gain from climate finance—and those with the most to give—can be rendered invisible.

This is especially paradoxical because many missing jurisdictions sit at the extremes of the climate justice spectrum. They are either deeply climate vulnerable and politically constrained (like Palestine), or critical enablers of tax abuse (like the BVI or Hong Kong), or both (like Puerto Rico). Even though their aggregate effect on global revenue or finance distribution is minimal—less than 0.1 per cent of a $1 trillion fund—their absence is symbolically and politically significant. As shown in the methodology, many could still raise substantial tax revenues, even if their emissions are low and their vulnerability is high.

In short, missing from the data does not mean missing from the problem. These gaps reflect some of the same global inequalities this report seeks to address. A just climate finance model must also be a fully inclusive one. Future versions of this work may incorporate missing jurisdictions as more data becomes available. Until then, acknowledging their absence is part of building a transparent and equitable system—one that sees and counts everyone.

3.3 What the data shows

The data reveals a powerful insight: under a progressive tax system, most countries around the world would be net recipients, and still have revenue left over to spend domestically. This undercuts the dominant narrative of scarcity and dependence, showing that fiscal capacity already exists, but it is unequally distributed and politically constrained. Countries in the Global South could reduce dependence on foreign aid or volatile loss and damage funding if they were able to effectively mobilise their own resources. Countries with greater historical responsibility can contribute more, aligning with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, while having revenue leftover for domestic spending.

The slider challenges the false trade-off between local priorities and global responsibilities. It visualises a path toward sovereignty, justice and shared climate action.

Key findings include:

Based on the underlying data and findings, countries are also classified along a tax sovereignty scale, which compares their potential additional tax revenue to current tax collection levels[29].

The scale aims to illustrate how widespread constraints imposed by lacking or partially exercised tax sovereignty are on public budgets.

Tax sovereignty levelRangeShare of CountriesExample
Challenged0-5%36%Belgium (2.7%)
Endangered5-15%42%Tanzania (13.6%)
Negated+15%19%Timor-Leste (29.4%)
3.4 What this means for climate justice

Exercising tax sovereignty fairly would allow countries to fill public budgets at home and participate in a fair multilateral climate finance system. The question is no longer whether countries can afford to act, but whether they are willing to act, and whether they are allowed to. The data shows clearly that climate finance constraints are political, not fiscal. The slider is therefore more than just a numbers game. It is a visual intervention into a dominant narrative of scarcity. Too often, governments claim they cannot fund climate action at scale because public resources are limited. But if countries reclaimed their tax sovereignty and implemented fair tax reforms, most would have more than enough revenue to meet both domestic needs and contribute to global goals.

Importantly, the slider’s global finance pool functions as a partial, proxy form of climate reparations in the absence of any formal colonial or climate reparations regime. It acknowledges that wealthier, high emitting countries owe historical climate debt to those who are least responsible for emissions but most vulnerable to rising temperatures.

The tool also challenges the artificial divide between domestic priorities and global obligations. Climate-vulnerable countries, especially in the Global South, are often asked to choose between servicing external debt, financing basic public services and decarbonisation. But when endowed with mobilising their own fiscal resources, these countries can clearly do both, fund their own transitions, and reduce dependency on donor dependent, volatile climate finance.

The slider also helps operationalise principles like the polluter pays principle and common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR). Those with higher historical emissions have greater responsibility to contribute to a global fund. Those most vulnerable receive more. Contributions are not based on charity, but on fairness and justice.

Crucially, in the absence of any formal reparative framework between former colonial powers and those most harmed by climate breakdown, this global climate finance pool also functions as a partial, proxy form of climate reparations. It acknowledges that the current climate crisis is the product of unequal histories, and that those who benefitted most from carbon intensive development must now help shoulder the costs.

Finally, the slider makes visible something often ignored in climate negotiations: the power of taxation to drive justice. Just as tax injustice has helped entrench the climate crisis, through subsidies, secrecy, and the under taxation of polluters, so too can just taxation become a cornerstone of reparative climate finance. Reclaiming tax sovereignty is not only a way to raise money. It is a way to reclaim democratic control over the transition ahead.

4.        Sovereignty in action and denial

Despite formal claims, the actual autonomy countries have over their tax systems is frequently limited. To fully understand why tax sovereignty is a contested terrain, and why many countries struggle to exercise it effectively, this section explores concrete examples, demonstrating both certain countries’ failure to actively use tax sovereignty for climate finance purposes, as well as the restrictions faced by other countries attempting to exercise their tax sovereignty in that way. It highlights how historical legacies of colonialism, contemporary global economic structures, and political economy considerations continue to shape and constrain fiscal choices, with profound implications for climate finance.

4.1 Why tax sovereignty is critical

Tax sovereignty is often seen as an abstract legal principle, and is, at least in terms of an overarching goal, largely absent from climate justice advocacy.

However, it is a deeply political expression of autonomy and collective self-determination. The ability to levy and collect taxes is at the heart of state power: it is how societies determine who contributes what, and to which collective ends. Tax sovereignty and the way countries use it is what shapes countries’ achievement of tax fairness, or the 5Rs of tax justice, that is, using taxation to raise revenue, reprice goods considered to be incorrectly priced by the market, redistribute income and wealth, improve representation and channel reparations for past injustices[30].

Historically, struggles over taxation were foundational to anti-colonial movements, from the rejection of the British imperial “taxation without representation” in 18th-century north America, to uprisings against colonial taxes across Africa and Asia[31]. Following independence, newly sovereign states saw control over tax policy as a cornerstone of national development strategies[32]. Conversely, the denial of self-determination through the forced forgoing of tax revenue continues to be a key feature of illegal occupation[33].

In many post-colonial states, the sacrifice of the new states’ power to tax foreign companies in favour of the former colonial powers has consistently been pushed as a necessary concession to attract foreign investment. This view has led to many legacy investment and tax treaties that are fundamentally imbalanced when it comes to those new countries’ ability to raise tax revenue. Additionally, the promise of fiscal sovereignty was also undermined in domestic tax policy making. At the same time that countries were gaining independence from the UK’s colonial empire, new developments were kicking off on what would eventually come to be called the UK’s “second empire”: a network of British tax havens consisting of crown dependencies like Jersey and Guernsey and overseas territories like the Cayman Islands and the British Virgin Islands, and at the centre of which sits the City of London. The UK’s “second empire” is today responsible for a quarter of all the tax losses countries suffer to multinational corporations and wealthy individuals using tax havens to underpay tax[34]. It continues the colonial undermining of other nations’ tax sovereignty and self-determination.

The global turn to neoliberalism in the 1980s and 1990s brought about a powerful reorientation of tax policy, pushed via structural adjustment programmes led by international financial institutions, in particular the IMF and the World Bank, and backed by the Washington Consensus and their donor governments. Under the banner of investment reforms, many countries were urged to lower corporate tax rates, introduce tax privileges for foreign investors and limit the taxation of extractive sectors, such as mining in Peru or the extractive sector in Ghana. These reforms coincided with the expansion of global financial liberalisation and the rise of offshore finance[35], which created a structural mismatch between where economic activity took place and where profits were declared and taxed.

Today, the idea that countries retain full sovereignty over their tax systems is more of an illusion than a fact. In practice, countries’ ability to set and enforce tax rules is shaped and constrained by an international system designed around the interests of capital. For many developing countries, sovereignty is confined to taxing consumption and wages at home, while multinational corporate profits escape through a labyrinth of tax abuse and profit shifting structures. For high income countries, sovereignty is often willingly not exercised, most notably by failing to tax wealth and by refusing to challenge financial secrecy within their own economies or spheres of influence.

Even in international negotiations, appeals to respect tax sovereignty are increasingly contradictory. They are made both to protect a state’s right not to tax, often by wealthier countries; and by Global South countries seeking to reclaim rights denied to them by existing tax norms promoted by the North[36]. This contradiction sits at the heart of the current push for a UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation, an attempt to rebalance the asymmetries of global tax governance through inclusive deliberations and restore meaningful sovereignty to all countries.

In the context of climate breakdown and widening global inequalities, tax sovereignty and the way countries use it, or are prevented from using it, is no longer just a technical concept. It is a political faultline in the struggle over who pays, who decides and who benefits from the transition to a low carbon economy, or from the lack of one.

4.2 Who gains from undermining tax sovereignty?

If the erosion of tax sovereignty undermines public revenue and fiscal capacity, the next logical question is: who benefits? This section provides a short overview of key actors and mechanisms that have shaped and profited from this erosion.

At the centre of the web are multinational corporations, including those in highly polluting sectors like fossil fuels, agribusiness and shipping, as well as ultra-wealthy individuals and the financial secrecy jurisdictions that shelter their wealth. These actors profit from a global tax system that is designed to allow capital and corporate profits to move freely and with limited oversight (in stark contrast to the policing of the cross-border movement of people), while placing structural limits on certain governments’ ability to tax and allowing capital and profits to be accumulated in countries with governments that are not interested in taxing at all.[37]

Consider Shell, which in 2021 reported US$20 billion in profits yet paid no UK corporate tax[38]. Or Glencore, the mining giant repeatedly linked to aggressive tax planning and political influence operations across the Global South. Or ExxonMobil, whose use of subsidiaries in Bermuda, the Bahamas and the Cayman Islands has helped shield profits from higher tax jurisdictions[39].

These practices are legal, in part, because global tax governance has long been dominated by high-income countries and corporate interests. The OECD’s Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) initiative and the Global Anti-Base Erosion (GLoBE) rules under Pillar Two, promised to curb corporate tax abuse. But the headline minimum corporate tax rate of 15 per cent, with a litany of exemptions[40], is far below what most countries require to reinvest revenue into public finance, and the deal contains many carveouts and loopholes that significantly undermine its redistributive potential. Many low and middle-income countries were not included in negotiations, and those who opt out of the deal risk exclusion from benefit-sharing or retaliatory measures.

Meanwhile, financial secrecy jurisdictions, from Switzerland and Singapore to Guernsey, continue to act as safe havens for hidden wealth and illicit financial flows. These jurisdictions allow firms and wealthy individuals to obscure their activities and ownership structures, and to benefit from weak international enforcement around automatic exchange of tax information and beneficial ownership transparency[41].

Investor state dispute settlement (ISDS) mechanisms also play a role in weakening tax sovereignty. Polluting companies and companies with aggressive tax planning strategies have used ISDS to challenge environmental policies and tax hikes. For example, British energy firm Rockhopper sued Italy for banning offshore oil drilling[42], and ExxonMobil has previously threatened to sue countries under investment treaties in response to proposed tax reforms. The mere threat of arbitration often has a chilling effect, deterring governments, particularly those already facing fiscal pressures, from pursuing needed reforms[43].

Constricted tax sovereignty is not an accident of history. It is the result of deliberate strategies backed by corporate lobbying, investor arbitration and political pressure. These strategies protect the wealth and emissions of a powerful minority, while shifting the cost of climate finance onto those least responsible for the crisis.

4.3 The politics of lost revenue: how tax sovereignty is captured and denied

Across the world, countries are failing to realise the full potential of their sovereign power to levy tax, but not for the same reasons. As previous sections have shown, many countries do not lack financial resources, but lack the political and structural capacity to claim them. The resulting scarcity narrative is not inevitable but manufactured. It is sustained by a global economic architecture that enables tax abuse and prioritises capital mobility.

Our climate finance slider tool illustrates that most countries, across income levels, have sufficient tax potential to raise meaningful revenue through the introducing of wealth taxes and the elimination of cross-border tax abuse. Yet, whether due to external constraints or internal political inertia, these options remain underused or blocked entirely.

In the Global South in particular, constraints include:

In the Global North, the problem is most often not constraint but the failure to exercise tax sovereignty fairly:

The consequences of constrained or neglected tax sovereignty are not just theoretical. They play out in very concrete ways across both high and low-income countries. Whether it is a Global South government prevented from taxing extractive profits or a Global North government choosing not to tax excess wealth, the result is the same: foregone public revenue. As we have shown, these are not isolated policy failures. They are systemic outcomes of a global system of tax governance that privileges capital mobility over justice and entrenches inequalities.

This matters profoundly for climate finance. When governments allow trillions in tax revenue to go uncollected, they limit their ability to fund domestic transition plans. This locks the Global South into further dependency, whether through external debt, the commodification of natural resources through carbon markets, or overreliance on donor finance.

The false narrative of scarcity persists not because the revenue does not exist, but because governments are either unable or unwilling to collect it.

5. Case studies

The following case studies illustrate the global dynamics of tax sovereignty. One highlights how Global South countries are routinely blocked from claiming their taxing rights on polluting multinationals, even as they try to do so. The other shows how, in the Global North, countries exercise their sovereignty by actively deciding against taxing wealth. Together, they offer a window into the real political and capital barriers standing in the way of a just climate finance system.

5.1 Tanzania vs. Acacia Mining: Tax sovereignty in chains

Tanzania is Africa’s fourth-largest gold producer, with mining long seen as a key driver of development. Yet for years, the country collected little revenue from its gold mines. Generous mining contracts in the 1990s and 2000s granted foreign firms like Barrick Gold (operating in Tanzania via its subsidiary Acacia Mining) extensive tax incentives and stabilisation agreements. These deals, often negotiated behind closed doors, overrode general tax laws. This is a common practice in the African extractive sector that can undermine the sovereign use of taxing power.[59]  Under such agreements, companies have enjoyed low royalty rates, tax holidays and other exemptions, leaving Tanzania with limited revenue from mining profits. Meanwhile, local communities have borne the brunt of environmental harm from mining waste and pollution. This underscores how multinationals frequently violate the polluter pays principle, operating profitably while underpaying tax and avoiding responsibility for environmental and social harms.

The dispute

President John Magufuli took office in 2015 on a promise to secure a larger share of resource wealth. In March 2017, Tanzania abruptly banned the export of unprocessed gold and copper concentrates, directly impacting Acacia, which derived about 30 per cent of its revenue from those exports[60]. A presidential committee report accused Acacia of under-reporting the gold and copper content of its shipments. On this basis, authorities issued Acacia with a US$190 billion tax bill, nearly four times Tanzania’s GDP, for years of allegedly unpaid taxes and penalties[61]. The government passed new laws to void some mining contracts, raised royalty rates and demanded state ownership stakes. Acacia denied the accusations of underpaying tax and misreporting the amount and value of gold and copper contained in its exports.

Unable to independently resolve the standoff, the company’s parent, Barrick Gold, intervened. At the same time, Acacia initiated international arbitration proceedings to contest Tanzania’s actions, invoking investor protection mechanisms. By 2019, Barrick moved to buy out Acacia’s remaining shareholders and strike a deal with the government. Barrick and Tanzania soon announced a framework to settle all claims. Key terms included:

The outcome highlighted both Tanzania’s determination to assert its taxing rights and the significant barriers it faced in doing so.

Constraints to tax sovereignty

Tanzania’s clash with Acacia Mining became an example of the constraints facing Global South countries attempting to tax polluting industries on their own terms. Several structural barriers were exposed:

Tanzania’s tax treaties have historically favoured foreign investors. Many treaties follow OECD standards that emphasise taxation in the investor’s home country (residence) over the source country (Tanzania). In prior tax treaty negotiations, Tanzania has often been made to accept these OECD clauses. This means Tanzania often loses rights to tax mining profits or must accept lower withholding rates on dividends, interest and royalties. Such treaty limitations have curbed Tanzania’s ability to tax mining income at the source, even though the gold was extracted from its soil. The treaties also do not consider the changed circumstances and revenue needs caused by the climate crisis. However, renegotiating these unfair tax treatiesis difficult and slow.

The dispute demonstrates the leverage that ISDS mechanisms give to companies. Acacia initiated arbitration under international investment agreements, and some shareholders believed the company had a strong chance of winning against Tanzania[62]. An adverse ruling could have forced Tanzania to pay enormous damages or reverse its policies. Tanzania’s government had already been rattled by a prior ICSID arbitration case. Fearing costly litigation and large payouts enforced abroad, Tanzania’s lawmakers moved in 2017 to outlaw international arbitration for natural resource contracts, insisting that disputes be settled in domestic courts[63]. While this reasserted a form of sovereignty, it also sparked concern among investors and did not negate ongoing cases.

The US$190 billion claim shed light on potential profit shifting and tax abuse. Audits alleged that Acacia understated the mineral content of exports for years[64]. By under-reporting gold and copper yields, a company can shift profits out of the country, for instance by selling the minerals to an affiliated trader at an artificially low value, thereby reducing taxable income in Tanzania. Multinationals often exploit such practices, including creative transfer pricing and use of offshore subsidiaries in low tax jurisdictions. Tanzania’s experience fits a broader pattern:  African countries lose many billions annually in illicit financial outflows, much of it through corporate practices that underpay tax or involve outright evasion[65].

The roots of the dispute trace back to the very contracts and incentives that originally attracted foreign investment. In a phase of rapid development, Tanzania granted extensive tax concessions to mining companies. Some mining agreements included stabilisation clauses that locked in low royalty and tax rates, insulating companies from any future unfavourable law changes. These incentives severely limited Tanzania’s tax take once mines became productive. Mining contracts are notorious for being negotiated without public oversight, and such deals can override parliament’s taxing power, limiting the reach of local tax authorities. The Tanzanian government grew frustrated that, despite high gold prices and sizable production, companies paid only minimal royalties and had not paid income tax for many years. In effect, Tanzania’s own contracts, crafted under donor and investor influence, had constrained its tax sovereignty. Renegotiating these contracts proved challenging.

The case also revealed gaps in technical and administrative capacity. Auditing a multinational miner’s true output and profits is a complex task. Weaknesses in routine monitoring allowed underreporting to go undetected for years. Moreover, handling high-stakes negotiations and legal battles required special expertise. Tanzania found itself outsourcing negotiations to the parent company because direct talks with Acacia had broken down. In preparing for arbitration, it would likely have had to hire expensive international law firms. All of this underscores the administrative constraint: even when political will exists to claim more revenue, capacity shortfalls remain, from skilled tax auditors and geologists to experienced negotiators and legal counsel.

Resolution

By early 2020, the dispute was resolved in principle with the formation of a new joint venture to manage Barrick’s Tanzanian mines. Under the finalised agreement, Tanzania would hold a 16 per cent equity stake in each mine, which may be of lower fiscal value because dividends can be deferred and debt loaded, while Barrick retained 84 per cent ownership but agreed to split profits and economic benefits evenly with the government[66]. The one time US$300 million settlement payment was made to clear all outstanding tax claims, and Tanzania lifted the concentrate export ban, allowing operations to gradually resume. In exchange, Barrick gained assurances of stability and an end to further litigation related to the dispute.

However, it is notable that the final terms required major Tanzanian concessions compared to the country’s initial demands. The US$190 billion figure was pared down to US$300 million. The new 50/50 split of net profits, which can delay and reduce revenue compared with a sales-based royalty[67], can be seen as a revenue-sharing mechanism that allowed Tanzania to only recover a fraction of the tax it might have collected through standard channels. The resolution came only after Tanzania asserted its sovereign powers by changing laws and issuing large tax claims, but it ultimately had to compromise. This outcome illustrates how difficult it is for a Global South country to fundamentally renegotiate the terms of extraction once contracts have been signed and operations are underway.

Implications for tax sovereignty and climate finance

Tanzania’s experience with Acacia Mining encapsulates the complex challenges of preserving tax sovereignty to undertake legitimate tax policy reform, particularly over polluting multinationals, within an international tax governance system  skewed in favour of corporations. The case highlights how legal structures, corporate practices and capacity constraints can come together to limit a nation’s ability to hold extractors and polluters accountable. These tax sovereignty struggles have direct implications for climate justice and finance:

Effective climate action demands that those who cause environmental damage bear the costs. Yet, as seen in Tanzania, mining companies can operate profitably while contributing minimally to offset the damage they cause. This not only undermines accountability and public trust but also deprives governments of resources needed for climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Developing countries like Tanzania are often seen as reliant on international climate finance. However, a fair global tax system could significantly boost their domestic public budgets, making them less dependent on climate finance from donor countries or aid. Tax revenue lost to profit shifting and unfair treaties directly translates into less money for investments in renewable energy, climate resilient infrastructure and adaptation and mitigation. This loss is especially consequential in the Global South, where governments rely more on corporate tax income and are most vulnerable to the effects of climate breakdown.

The cost of sovereignty

Tanzania’s bold stance carries lessons for other countries.

On the one hand, it demonstrates that countries can try pushing back against unfair corporate tax deals and can overcome the policy freeze caused by ‘legacy’ treaties. On the other, it reveals the risks of retaliation and capital flight. Some investors may have reassessed Tanzania’s investment climate during the dispute. This underscores the need for international frameworks and stronger global rules that reconcile long-term, stable investment pathways with tax justice. There is a clear and longstanding asymmetry at play, as evidenced by dispute settlements: Global South states like Tanzania are defendants far more often than claimants, and many tax disputes are settled in opaque tribunals with little accountability. Reform can help but must be far reaching — including rules to change tax treaties, multilateral agreements that set minimum tax floors for extractive industries, and avoid ISDS in tax dispute resolution in order to protect states’ rights to tax. Climate finance advocates are increasingly recognising that stable domestic revenue-raising is essential to a sustainable transition[68]. Climate justice requires tax justice.

 

5.2 The United Kingdom: Captured not to tax wealth

The UK provides a stark counterpoint to Tanzania’s experience. It is a Global North nation with a very different relation to tax sovereignty. In particular, the UK’s persistent refusal to implement a wealth tax highlights how political and economic capture, not just technical capacity, shape tax outcomes.

Colonial legacy and the rise of tax havens

Britain’s colonial history set the stage for many of today’s tax policy choices. During decolonisation in the mid-20th century, British elites and institutions cultivated a “second empire” of tax havens in Crown Dependencies and Overseas Territories​[69]. As formal colonies gained independence, London and the City of London encouraged jurisdictions such as the Channel Islands (Jersey and Guernsey) and Caribbean territories (Bermuda, Cayman Islands, British Virgin Islands, etc.) to take on new roles as secretive offshore financial centres[70]. This “archipelago capitalism” was explicitly rooted in the British imperial decline. For example, in the 1950s, the UK encouraged its remaining dependencies to provide offshore services as a form of “development” after centuries of extracting wealth[71]. Today, many of the world’s tax havens are former British colonies or dependencies​[72] and the UK’s network of havens is responsible for facilitating nearly 26 per cent of global tax revenue losses each year​. In essence, the UK helped create a global system that enables wealth to escape taxation – a legacy of colonial wealth protection that continues to benefit elites.

This legacy places Britain at the centre of a vast financial secrecy network or spider’s web. It enables multinational companies and wealthy individuals, including British elites, to shift profits and assets offshore while paying minimal tax. The UK and its so-called “second empire,” which includes tax havens such as Jersey, the British Virgin Islands and the Cayman Islands, together constitute the world’s greatest enabler of corporate tax abuse, responsible for round 23 per cent of global corporate tax underpayment[73]. This historical context is critical. It illustrates how the UK’s economic elite have long benefitted from asset protection structures, reducing political pressure on governments to introduce or expand wealth taxation.

Inequality up, wealth tax off the table

Despite this history, or perhaps because of it, the UK has never implemented a wealth tax. The closest attempt came in the 1970s, when a Labour government pledged to tax the net wealth of the rich. The effort quickly faltered under intense pushback from wealthy individuals and the establishment. The proposal was abandoned amid claims that the rich would find ways to avoid it and that it would not raise much revenue. Since then, no British government has introduced an annual tax on overall net wealth. The UK therefore stands out among major economies, particularly in Europe, for its refusal to directly tax large fortunes. While some wealth taxes in Europe have been repealed under pressure, many countries previously had them in place. Some, such as Spain, have reintroduced wealth taxes in recent years.

Britain, however, has never enacted one at all. As pointed out by the UK Wealth Tax Commission, while the UK has several ways of taxing wealthy people on a recurring basis, these existing taxes are seriously defective, making them inefficient, inequitable and too easy to avoid. Since long, the Commission suggests to reform existing taxes on wealth and introduce a net wealth tax for the specific purpose of reducing inequality, which has steadily grown[74]. Over the past few decades, the richest have moved significantly ahead of the rest of society. Billionaires and multi-millionaires have multiplied in both number and net worth, while ordinary workers have faced stagnant wages and prolonged austerity. The Sunday Times Rich List recorded just 15 UK billionaires in 1990.  By 2023, that number had risen to 171, each holding an average of £4 billion​[75]. This explosion of private wealth has not been matched by corresponding increases in public revenue or redistribution efforts. Even as public finances have come under greater strain than ever before, for example after the 2008 financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and more recently due to rising defence spending, successive governments have ruled out a wealth tax. During the pandemic, when the fiscal cost of emergency measures exploded, the UK Wealth Tax Commission explicitly recommended a one-time wealth tax on millionaire households as “the fairest and most efficient” way to repair public finances[76]. The Conservative government ignored these calls and instead introduced further spending cuts and increased regressive indirect taxes. In effect, the UK has chosen not to draw on the vast concentration of private wealth for the public good, even when the need was clear and the policy tools were available.

Political and structural barriers to taxing wealth

The UK’s political establishment has deep ties to wealthy elites. The City of London has long exerted an outsized influence on policy, famously becoming “the dominant political force in Britain” since the 19th century​[77]. This influence has shaped a dominant policy paradigm that favours low taxation on capital and high net worth individuals in the name of competitiveness. Policymakers frequently invoke fears that a wealth tax would drive wealthy individuals and investors out of the UK. These narratives, while not evidence-based, are heavily promoted by the financial sector and elite lobbyists and echo the very dynamics that created the offshore system.

The UK’s (former) non-dom tax regime is a striking example of how the country has courted global wealth. It allowed resident wealthy foreigners and some UK nationals to avoid tax on overseas income, reinforcing London’s appeal as a tax haven for elites. Such policies entrench a powerful lobby opposed to progressive tax measures.

Importantly, many political decision-makers themselves are drawn from the upper echelons of wealth, making them more sympathetic to anti-wealth tax arguments. The finance industry and wealthy individuals fund research and campaigns to dissuade new taxes on wealth, framing them as “unworkable” or harmful to Britain’s economy. This lobbying was evident as far back as the 1970s, when the original wealth tax proposal was deemed untenable, and continues today behind the scenes. The result is a policy stalemate. Even as public opinion polls consistently show support for higher taxes on the rich, the idea is repeatedly dismissed in Westminster.

The UK’s structural role in global finance also plays a part. London is a hub for managing the assets of the global rich, including oligarchs and billionaires whose fortunes are often held in trust funds, luxury real estate and shell companies.  Taxing extreme wealth would mean confronting this lucrative status quo, including the financial interests of banks, law firms and accountancy firms, which serve as key enablers of tax abuse and secrecy. The UK government has consistently shown reluctance to impose reforms that might jeopardise the City’s competitiveness. For example, it has long resisted implementing transparent registers of beneficial ownership[78]. This combination of elite influence, a competitiveness-based ideology and deep entanglement with offshore finance has kept a wealth tax off the UK policy agenda.

Missing billions: wealth tax potential vs tax abuse losses

The fiscal costs of the UK’s policy choices are immense. By not taxing the wealth of the richest, the UK forgoes a significant source of revenue. These are funds that could support public services, defence spending and climate action. Various studies have demonstrated the magnitude of potential funds available. For example, the independent Wealth Tax Commission concluded that a one-off wealth tax on millionaire households (5 per cent on wealth above £1 million, payable over five years) could raise around £260 billion​[79]. Even a more modest levy limited to the ultra-rich would yield notable revenue. Research for the UK’s Trades Union Congress found that a one-off tax of 1.7 per cent on wealth above £3 million, and 3.5 per cent above £10 million, would deliver about £10 billion. Annual wealth taxes, for instance a progressive yearly tax on fortunes of the top 0.5% of the population could raise €32 billion annually in the UK[80]. These figures illustrate how much fiscal capacity remains untapped and how wealth taxes could slow down rising wealth inequality, create space for further progressive taxation and prioritise urgent public revenue raising.

At the same time, the UK loses huge sums of revenue through underpaid tax and legal loopholes that largely benefit the same wealthy corporations and individuals.  The UK, having orchestrated its role at the centre of the “spiderweb”, is consistently one of the world’s biggest losers of tax revenue to global tax abuse[81]. Multinational companies shifting profits out of Britain, along with individuals hiding assets offshore, cost the UK Treasury tens of billions of pounds each year. For example, British corporations can route profits through Luxembourg or one of UK’s own jurisdictions, such as Bermuda, to avoid domestic tax. Wealthy UK residents also use trusts in UK Crown Dependency and offshore financial centres like Jersey to reduce or conceal their tax liabilities. The UK’s leadership in the global tax abuse architecture undermines its own tax base and sovereignty. This creates a paradox in which it forfeits revenue both through commission, by enabling underpayment of tax, and omission, by choosing not to tax wealth directly.

Climate justice implications

The refusal to tax the wealthy has profound consequences not only for inequality and public services, but also for climate justice. Wealth and carbon emissions are closely intertwined. The richest individuals are by far the largest polluters. The wealthiest 1 per cent of people globally were responsible for an estimated 15 to16 per cent of worldwide emissions in 2019, a share roughly equal to the total emissions of the poorest two-thirds of humanity​[82]. In the UK and other high-income countries, millionaires and billionaires lead carbon-intensive lifestyles, including flying private jets, owning multiple mansions and yachts, and investing in high emitting industries. These patterns of consumption result in disproportionately large carbon footprints.

A wealth tax in the UK could help advance climate justice in at least two ways. First, even modestly slowing the concentration of extreme wealth could indirectly reduce the emissions of the superrich, particularly if the tax is designed to capture wealth tied to carbon intensive assets, such as polluting investment portfolios[83]. Second, and more importantly in the short term, a wealth tax would raise substantial revenue that could be directed towards transition plans and global climate finance. Climate breakdown requires financing for mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage, both within the UK and in support of vulnerable nations. Yet wealthy governments often claim that “resources are unavailable” for these needs. A UK wealth tax would be a way to mobilise new funds from those most able to pay – and if designed correctly, for example through exit taxes, it poses virtually no risk of capital flight. Just a fraction of the Wealth Tax Commission’s proposed wealth tax, with revenues up to £260 billion, could fund the UK’s entire contribution to the various international climate finance goals discussed in this report. Under the largest fund size of £2.6 trillion, the UK’s contribution would be £113 billion. A wealth tax would not only cover the contribution, but  also leave over £147 billion for domestic investments in renewable energy and home insulation.

By refusing to implement a wealth tax, the richest continue to pollute with impunity, while public funding for the green transition remains underfunded. This is especially glaring given the UK’s historical responsibility for emissions as the birthplace of the industrial revolution, and its current financial capability to contribute. While a wealth tax is not a silver bullet for climate finance, it is a powerful and complementary tool.

A tale of two tax sovereignties: UK vs Tanzania

The contrast between the United Kingdom and a country like Tanzania underscores the theme of tax sovereignty and a country’s sovereign ability to tax. In the Tanzanian case, a nation in the Global South is effectively denied full use of its sovereign tax powers by external factors and anachronisms, including colonial economic structures, unfair international tax rules and the practices of multinational companies that erode Tanzania’s tax base. Tanzania’s fiscal capacity to fund public services and climate adaptation is undermined by a system largely designed outside its control.

The United Kingdom presents a different scenario. The UK Government’s departments for the design of tax laws and for the collection of those taxes are among the world’s most advanced. The United Kingdom can make sovereign choices to exercise its power to tax, yet it chooses not to exercise this power when it comes to taxing the rich. Unlike Tanzania, any constraints on the UK’s power to tax extreme wealth are a reflection of political and economic capture by the interests of capital. For example, the potential for a new Labour government to introduce more progressive tax measures on the super-rich led to a huge wave of media coverage on the possibility of a ‘millionaire exodus’. While the statistical basis for such a claim was subsequently debunked, the government was understood to have been strongly swayed by the response[84]. Despite clearly having the legislative and administrative capacity to do so, Britain chooses not to levy a wealth tax, whether on an annual basis or as a one-off instance to finance extraordinary public measures, as some countries did during the COVID-19 pandemic. The contrast is striking: one country is unable to collect the revenue it desperately needs, while the other is failing to collect revenue that is readily available.

The cases of Tanzania and the UK illustrate a dynamic that undermines climate justice for all. When countries like Tanzania are blocked from exercising their taxing rights over multinationals and collecting the revenue they are owed for public budgets, they are increasingly forced to rely on international climate finance — funding that wealthier countries like the UK have consistently failed to deliver[85]. But this is not just a burden for the Global South. Strengthening the ability of lower-income countries to raise domestic revenue through fairer global tax rules would reduce their reliance on aid, external loans and the unsustainable debt these often generate. At the same time, it would ease pressure on richer countries to fill the climate finance gap by contributing their fair share through their own public budgets, rather than relying on voluntary pledges or private finance.

6. From diagnosis to design: policy implications and next steps

The following recommendations are designed to help create a just and sustainable climate finance system by reclaiming tax sovereignty as a means of addressing both the domestic climate crisis and the global climate finance gap. At the heart of these proposals is the UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation (UNFCTC), which offers a unique opportunity to rebalance global tax systems. By focusing on tax sovereignty and how countries make use of it, we can transform global tax governance to better fund climate transitions and strengthen domestic public finance budgets. The following recommendations are structured for international processes, civil society organisations (CSOs), and technical tax reforms.

Civil society organizations (CSOs) and the public: advocate for global tax justice and the UN tax convention

Civil society must elevate the importance of the UN tax convention within broader climate and tax justice movements. The UN tax convention represents a critical framework for reevaluating countries’ use of their national tax sovereignty and for resetting current choices that overly privilege multinational corporations and financial elites. It is these skewed uses of tax sovereignty that currently allow companies and financial elites to capture global tax rules. By supporting an inclusive and equitable UN tax convention, civil society organizations can help ensure that countries in the Global South regain the ability to tax polluting industries and wealth that has historically been hidden in secrecy jurisdictions and tax havens. This is not a technical exercise. It is a moral and political necessity for climate justice. A sensible use of tax sovereignty is central to public budgets. Countries need fiscal power to fund their own climate transitions. Civil society should push governments to support the UN tax convention and ensure that tax rules, especially those related to wealth, profit shifting and polluting industries, reduce inequality.

Civil society organizations from both the economic and climate justice spaces should advocate together for inclusive tax negotiations at the United Nations where countries in the Global South have an equal say, emphasising the sovereign right of nations to regulate taxes and ensure that the polluter pays and common but differentiated responsibilities principles can be operationalised in both domestic and international contexts. In addition to financial contributions, countries must take on their fair share of responsibility by agreeing to reform international tax rules to allow developing nations to raise the revenue they need for both climate finance and broader social goals, such as public services and poverty reduction.

It is critical to educate the publicabout the interdependence between tax sovereignty, climate finance and public budgets. In many high-income countries, tax abuse by wealthy individuals and corporations is central to the inability of governments to meet their climate finance pledges, and a key driver of austerity policies. By connecting the dots between tax justice and climate justice, civil society organisations can help shift public opinion to demand tax justice at home and fair climate contributions abroad. Campaigns should emphasise that tax justice is not only an issue for governments and corporations. It is a question of human rights and global responsibility, particularly in the context of the climate crisis.

Civil society organisations must lead public facing advocacy campaigns that showcase how multinational corporations and wealthy elites use tax abuse to undermine national revenue collection, especially in low-incomeand climate-vulnerable countries. Civil society organisations can leverage international media and investigative reporting to name and shame those who underpay tax that could otherwise fund climate mitigation and adaptation efforts in the Global South, especially when assets are concentrated in polluting sectors. This is not only a tax issue, but a climate justice issue, as uncollected taxes from the wealthiest entities make it harder for nations to finance their own transitions.

Concrete technical tax reforms: the UN tax convention as a structural solution

The UN tax convention offers structural reforms that are vital for both restoring tax sovereignty and establishing the conditions to raise fair and sustainable climate finance. Below, we offer some key reforms that the UN tax convention could introduce to overhaul global tax governance and address the climate finance crisis:

The UN tax convention has the potential to re-establish the policy space for fully progressive taxation of income, profits and wealth, to the benefit of all people. The negotiations provide an unprecedented opportunity to strengthen the tax sovereignty of all countries, through effective and globally inclusive cooperation. The convention can deliver agreement to eliminate the financial secrecy that underpins cross-border tax abuse and all other illicit financial flows, as well as setting the basis for tax rules that end the inequalities in the distribution of taxing rights faced by countries in the global south. The transparency required should include a global asset registry to share data on the ultimate beneficial ownership of companies, partnerships and other vehicles, alongside the automatic exchange of information about financial accounts. These measures would restore every country’s sovereignty to pursue nationally chosen wealth taxes and make them fully effective.  

The convention should explicitly link tax reforms to the global agenda on loss and damage. Better tax rules could reallocate resources from high income countries to more vulnerable nations facing the worst climate impacts. The convention could provide the framework for countries to contribute to climate finance through progressive taxes on multinational profits, wealth and carbon intensive industries, with the explicit goal of financing loss and damage in a more sustainable and predictable way. Such an approach would embed the polluter pays and common but differentiated responsibilities principles at the global level.

The UN tax convention offers an opportunity to reform the way in which countries allocate among themselves the right to tax profits from cross-border business activities. At present, many bilateral tax treaties disproportionately benefit wealthy countries and multinational corporations, often at the expense of lower-income countries. These treaties frequently prevent states from taxing foreign multinationals doing business in their territories, cutting off a potential source of revenue for climate finance. Under the UN tax convention, bilateral tax treaties’ skewed allocation rules could be replaced by a multilateral agreement on the fair allocation of taxing rights that better reflects source countries’ sovereign right to tax profits from local activities. A similar multinational framework could establish rules to ensure that countries can tax wealthy individuals operating within their borders, particularly those linked to carbon intensive sectors.

The UN tax convention could offer a solution to the race to the bottom in tax competition, particularly in relation to secrecy jurisdictions and offshore finance. Because capital and income are highly mobile, these jurisdictions’ decision to offer secrecy and encourage tax abuse has a beggar thy neighbour effect, making it harder for other countries to use their sovereign power to tax income and capital. By implementing a more comprehensive global minimum tax rate and robust transparency standards, the convention could curb the ability of countries to act as tax havens for multinational corporations, which are currently major enablers of illicit financial flows. These jurisdictions deprive lower income countries of billions in lost source revenue, worsening global inequality and accelerating the climate crisis. By setting international norms, the UN tax convention could help prevent countries from undermining the fiscal autonomy of others through predatory tax practices.

One of the most critical features of the UN tax convention could be the establishment of a multilateral dispute resolution mechanism that deals with conflicts between countries or between countries and taxpayers regarding a country’s exercise of its tax sovereignty. Such a mechanism would replace and prevent the Investor-State Dispute Settlement in investment agreements from blocking progressive tax reforms. ISDS has been used by multinational corporations to sue governments for changing tax laws, undermining sovereignty and stalling necessary climate legislation. The UN tax convention could introduce binding multilateral rules that would render ISDS provisions obsolete, allowing countries to prioritise tax sovereignty and climate policies without fear of costly legal challenges from corporations. A new mechanism would settle disputes holistically, taking into account sustainable development in a balanced and integrated way across economic, social and environmental dimensions.[86]


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[44] Mistreated: The Tax Treaties That Are Depriving the World’s Poorest Countries of Vital Revenue (February 2016) <https://actionaid.org/sites/default/files/actionaid_-_mistreated_tax_treaties_report_-_feb_2016.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com> [accessed 21 April 2025].

[45] See, for example, the case of Mongolia after its termination of the tax treaty with the Netherlands in 2013 where foreign investors in a local copper mine continued claiming tax benefits in the terminated treaty based on stabilisation agreements.

[46] ‘Building Capacity to Prevent Profit Shifting by Large Companies in Zambia’.

[47] TREATY-BASED INVESTOR–STATE DISPUTE SETTLEMENT CASES AND CLIMATE ACTION (2022).

[48] ‘Klesch v Germany Arbitral Decision of 23/07/2024 Ordering Germany to Refrain from Collecting the Windfall Tax Set by EU Law’ <https://baldon-avocats.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Klesch-v-Germany_TCE_2024.pdf> [accessed 8 May 2025].

[49] Howard Mann and Alexandra Readhead, Evolving Standards on Stabilization: A Practical Guide to the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development’s Guiding Principles on Durable Extractive Contracts, Principles VII and VIII <https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2025-03/evolving-stabilization-standards-mining.pdf>.

[50] Trade-Related Illicit Financial Flows in 135 Developing Countries: 2008-2017 (March 2020) <https://edicon.consejo.org.ar/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/155.-GFI_Illicit-Flows-135-Developing-Countries.2020.pdf> [accessed 21 April 2025].

[51] Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman, ‘Wealth Taxation: Lessons from History and Recent Developments’, AEA Papers and Proceedings, 112 (2022), 58–62.

[52] Alestig and others, ‘Carbon Inequality Kills: Why Curbing the Excessive Emissions of an Elite Few Can Create a Sustainable Planet for All’.

[53] Tax Justice Network, The Millionaire Exodus Myth <https://taxjustice.net/reports/the-millionaire-exodus-myth/> [accessed 11 June 2025].

[54] Mager, Meinzer and Millán, ‘How Corporate Tax Incentives Undermine Climate Justice’.

[55] Rigged Reform (April 2017) <https://s3.amazonaws.com/oxfam-us/www/static/media/files/Rigged_Reform_FINAL.pdf> [accessed 21 April 2025].

[56] Schultz and Mager, How ‘greenlaundering’ Conceals the Full Scale of Fossil Fuel Financing.

[57] TAXING MULTINATIONALS: THE BEPS PROPOSALS AND ALTERNATIVES, 6 July 2023 <https://www.southcentre.int/sc-contribution-taxing-multinationals-the-beps-proposals-and-alternatives-6-july-2023/> [accessed 21 April 2025].

[58] ICRICT Evaluation of the OECD/G2O Two-Pillar Solution (28 September 2024) <https://www.icrict.com/international-tax-reform/icrict-evaluation-of-the-oecd-g2o-two-pillar-solution-2/> [accessed 21 April 2025].

[59] Mager, Meinzer and Millán, ‘How Corporate Tax Incentives Undermine Climate Justice’.

[60] ‘Tanzania and Barrick Gold Reach Final Operating Agreement’, CGTN Africa, 15 June 2023 <https://africa.cgtn.com/tanzania-and-barrick-gold-reach-final-operating-agreement/> [accessed 22 April 2025].

[61] John Benny, ‘Barrick Details Proposal to Settle Acacia Dispute with Tanzania’, Reuters, 20 February 2019, section Business <https://www.reuters.com/article/business/barrick-details-proposal-to-settle-acacia-dispute-with-tanzania-idUSKCN1Q91G8/> [accessed 22 April 2025].

[62] ‘Acacia Seeks Stay of International Arbitration against Tanzania | Reuters’ <https://www.reuters.com/article/world/acacia-seeks-stay-of-international-arbitration-against-tanzania-idUSKCN1UC0QN/> [accessed 22 April 2025].

[63] ‘Outlawed Foreign Foras: The Conundrum over Tanzania’s International Investor Disputes Resolution System – Africa Construction Law’ <https://africaconstructionlaw.org/outlawed-foreign-foras-the-conundrum-over-tanzanias-international-investor-disputes-resolution-system/> [accessed 22 April 2025].

[64] ‘Tanzania and Barrick Gold Reach Final Operating Agreement’.

[65] Report of the High Level Panel on Illicit Financial Flows from Africa <https://au.int/sites/default/files/documents/40545-doc-IFFs_REPORT.pdf> [accessed 21 April 2025].

[66] ‘Tanzania and Barrick Gold Reach Final Operating Agreement’.

[67] Thomas Scurfield, Equitable Sharing of Mining Profits: The Best Deal for Tanzania? (September 2023).

[68] Bob Michel and Franziska Mager, ‘Breaking the Silos of Tax and Climate: Climate Tax Policy under the UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation.’, Tax Justice Network, 2024 <https://taxjustice.net/2024/12/09/-climate-and-tax-talks-has-sunk-both-but-the-un-tax-convention-offers-a-lifeline/> [accessed 27 February 2025].

[69] ‘Tax Justice Network Letter to King Charles III – Full Text’, Tax Justice Network, 2023 <https://taxjustice.net/2023/04/30/tax-justice-network-letter-to-king-charles-iii-full-text/> [accessed 22 April 2025].

[70] Nick Shaxson, ‘What Does Brexit Mean for Tax Havens and the City of London?’, Tax Justice Network, 2021 <https://taxjustice.net/2021/07/02/what-does-brexit-mean-for-tax-havens-and-the-city-of-london/> [accessed 22 April 2025].

[71] Matthew Wills, ‘Islands in the Cash Stream’, JSTOR Daily, 23 June 2024 <https://daily.jstor.org/islands-in-the-cash-stream/> [accessed 22 April 2025].

[72] Corporate Tax Haven Index 2021 Methodology <https://cthi.taxjustice.net/cthi2021/methodology.pdf> [accessed 11 June 2024].

[73] ‘Tax Havens Could Cost Countries $4.7 Trillion over the next Decade, Advocacy Group Warns’, 2023 <https://www.icij.org/investigations/paradise-papers/tax-havens-could-cost-countries-4-7-trillion-over-the-next-decade-advocacy-group-warns/> [accessed 22 April 2025].

[74] Arun Advani, Emma Chamberlain and Andy Summers, A Wealth Tax for the UK <https://www.wealthandpolicy.com/wp/WealthTaxFinalReport.pdf>.

[75] Rupert Neate and Rupert Neate Wealth correspondent, ‘“Modest” Wealth Tax Could Raise More than £10bn for Public Services, Says TUC’, The Guardian, 11 August 2023, section Politics <https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/aug/11/modest-wealth-tax-could-raise-more-than-10bn-for-public-services-says-tuc> [accessed 22 April 2025].

[76] Advani, Chamberlain and Summers, A Wealth Tax for the UK.

[77] Shaxson, ‘What Does Brexit Mean for Tax Havens and the City of London?’

[78] Knobel, Privacy Washing & Beneficial Ownership Transparency: Dismantling the Weaponisation of Privacy against Beneficial Ownership Transparency <https://taxjustice.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Privacy-Washing-and-Beneficial-Ownership-Transparency-Tax-Justice-Network-March-2024.pdf> [accessed 22 May 2025].

[79] Advani, Chamberlain and Summers, A Wealth Tax for the UK.

[80] Schultz and Palanský, ‘TJN WP 2024-02’.

[81] The State of Tax Justice 2021 <https://taxjustice.net/reports/the-state-of-tax-justice-2021/> [accessed 19 June 2023]; Tax Justice Network, State of Tax Justice 2022 <https://taxjustice.net/reports/state-of-tax-justice-2022/> [accessed 19 June 2023]; The State of Tax Justice 2023 <https://taxjustice.net/wp-content/uploads/SOTJ/SOTJ23/English/State%20of%20Tax%20Justice%202023%20-%20Tax%20Justice%20Network%20-%20English.pdf> [accessed 11 June 2024]; The State of Tax Justice 2024.

[82] Alestig and others, ‘Carbon Inequality Kills: Why Curbing the Excessive Emissions of an Elite Few Can Create a Sustainable Planet for All’.

[83] Jose Pedro Bastos Neves and Willi Semmler, ‘A Proposal for a Carbon Wealth Tax: Modelling, Empirics, and Policy’, 2022 <https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=4114243> [accessed 19 June 2023].

[84] Tax Justice Network, 2025, The millionaire exodus myth, https://taxjustice.net/reports/the-millionaire-exodus-myth/.

[85] Dejgaard and others, Climate Finance Shadow Report 2023.

[86] Such an approach is in line with principle (d) of the UNFCITC Terms of Reference, see: https://financing.desa.un.org/sites/default/files/2025-01/n2501014_E.pdf.

The “millionaire exodus” visualised

Can you solve it?🧠

There are 58,000,000 millionaires in the world.

128,000 of them moved to another country in 2024, the news claimed based on a report published by Henley & Partners.

Is this a “millionaire exodus”? 🤔

The answer is no. The millionaires that supposedly relocated in 2024 represented just 0.2% of all millionaires.

But that didn’t stop news outlets around the world from reporting on a non-existent exodus, so we’ve visualised the problem below in case the helps clarify things further.

For more information, read our report debunking the millionaire exodus myth.

The Financial Secrecy Index, a cherished tool for policy research across the globe

The Financial Secrecy Index is used by banks to fight money laundering, by academics to investigate the English Premier League, and by leading institutes to enrich their renowned databases.

As a comprehensive and reliable source of information on jurisdictions’ contributions to financial secrecy, researchers and institutions around the world rely on the Financial Secrecy Index and incorporate its results into their work, showcasing the index’s ability to contribute to a wider understanding of the various aspects of financial secrecy and its broader impact on society.

While in the last decade, there have been so many interesting examples of the use of the index (see a non-exhaustive list here), in this blog we focus only on a few recent examples of fascinating work by various researchers and institutions, hoping to provide you with a flavour of what the index has to offer.

What is the Financial Secrecy Index?

The Financial Secrecy Index is a ranking of countries most complicit in helping individuals to hide their finances from the rule of law. The index evaluates how much wiggle room for financial secrecy a country’s laws and regulations provide – this is the country’s ‘Secrecy Score’. The index also monitors how much in financial services the country provides to other countries’ residents – this is the country’s ‘Global Scale Weight’.

These two factors are then combined to determine how big of a role the country plays in enabling financial secrecy globally – this is the country’s ‘FSI value’ and is what the country is ranked on.

How academics are using the index to make fascinating findings

The Financial Secrecy Index’ evidence-based country analyses provide valuable insights in individual countries’ contribution to global financial secrecy risk or in their country’s exposure to such risk generated by other countries.

Researchers have used the index to identify the ways in which financial secrecy via offshore jurisdictions has managed to insert itself into everyday life or has influenced history, and have used the index as a tool to help assess other transparency measures.

Here are some fascinating, recent examples of ‘applied Financial Secrecy Index research’:

The financial secrecy of immovable property investors in Liverpool.

A study by Rex, Atkinson and Ignianni (2024) examines the offshore investment strategies in immovable property located in and around the city of Liverpool. Historically, the area was deprived but in recent decades, tremendous economic progress was created through state-sponsored city rejuvenation. This also created conditions in which immovable property can be rented out at higher rates or ‘flipped’ with higher gains than elsewhere in England. Unavoidably, this has triggered tremendous inflow of offshore money into the area. The authors use public data to identify properties owned by foreign legal entities. At a postcode level, they map the offshore investment strategies used by the property owners.

Strategies are distinguished in function of a number of factors, including the use of legal entities in jurisdictions with a high secrecy score in the 2022 Financial Secrecy Index.

According to the authors, the key message of their work is that all offshore ownership strategies identified are used to avoid or evade taxes, while generating social harm by increasing wealth inequality and weakening local purchasing power.

Financial secrecy on the football pitch.

In a recent study by Duncan and Lord (2024), the offshore ownership structures of the 20 English Premier League (EPL) football clubs are analysed. The Premier League is one of the wealthiest and most profitable sports leagues in the world and this, too, has attracted enormous financial flows from abroad.

The authors start with clubs’ legal ownership data registered with the Premier League and use the ORBIS database to map international ownership structures of the owning entity. For each club, they determine the share of ownership for which the beneficial owner cannot be identified and the number and jurisdictional location of entities and in the ownership chain. The jurisdictions involved are then checked against their secrecy score on the Financial Secrecy Index 2022.

The authors reveal that 14 out of 20 clubs in the Premier League have offshore ownership structures that involve between 1 and 9 foreign entities, nearly all of which are located in high Secrecy Score jurisdictions. The authors conclude that the unnecessarily complex and opaque ownership structures of English football clubs permit the misuse of clubs for the channelling of illicit finances.

Financial secrecy as a colonial legacy in the Caribbean.

Hakelberg, Ahrens and Crasnic (2024) study the phenomenon of financial secrecy in the Caribbean archipelago. They explain why certain Caribbean jurisdictions have higher FSI values and rank higher in the Financial Secrecy Index 2022 based on their colonial history.

The authors conclude that jurisdictions’ current financial secrecy havenry ultimately resulted from their agricultural suitability. British colonisers created agricultural plantation economies on islands with good soils and maritime trading economies on islands with bad soils. Plantation economies were believed to provide enough revenue potential for the imposition of income taxes by the colonial administration. Maritime economies did not, and hence, colonial officials did not bother to introduce income taxes.

In later times, the large groups of racialised labourers descending from enslaved Africans in plantation economies were able to achieve the introduction of responsible government earlier than in maritime economies. The maritime economies combined white supremacy with no income taxes and provided an attractive and stable destination for asset holders fleeing newly independent states. As a result, the financial sectors of maritime economies grew faster than those of planation economies and in order to continue attracting asset holders, their governments also created regulatory frameworks that are more prone to financial secrecy.

Financial secrecy curtailed by public country by country reporting.

Eberhartinger, Speitmann and Sureth-Sloane (2024) set out to test whether the public country by country reporting (CbCR) rules imposed on European banks have reduced their use of tax and regulatory havens. Tax and regulatory havens are defined as countries that figure in Hines’ (2022) list of 52 tax havens and which have a higher than median secrecy score in the Financial Secrecy Index 2022.

The authors find that public country by country reporting has caused a significant decline of up to 33% of subsidiaries in tax and regulatory havens since public country by country reporting became mandatory for European banks. The authors emphasise their results reveal that public country by country reporting leads to real effects, namely withdrawals from low-tax locations, and that banks do respond to additional disclosure requirements, which is an important insight for policy debates regarding transparency measures.

Other researchers are relying on the Financial Secrecy Index to deepen the understanding of their countries’ legal framework and performance in the field of financial transparency. Here are some recent examples.

Refangga, Arifin and Saleh (2024) rely on Indonesia’s country analysis in the Financial Secrecy Index to undertake a benchmarking study of their country’s regulations fighting tax abuse, money laundering and other financial crimes. Dluhopolskyi , Ivashuk  and Myronenko (2024) do the same for Ukraine in the context of the countries’ potential future rapprochement to the EU and other international organisations. They provide a time-series overview of Ukraine’s secrecy score in the Financial Secrecy Index and of the country’s position in other international databases and indices to find that Ukraine’s performance in anti-corruption is improving year after year. Meirelles Monteiro (2024) analyses the situation of Portugal in light of the country’s ranking in the index, exploring Portugal’s underperformance on a number of indicators like ‘transparency of company accounts’ and ‘country-by-country reporting’.

How leading indices and databases use the index

Given the Financial Secrecy Index’ status as a reliable and comprehensive data collection on countries’ contribution to global financial secrecy, other institutions have not shied away from incorporating its evaluations or underlying data into their own indices or databases.

They do so either by incorporating a selection of the index’s indicators or by using countries’ ‘FSI Value’ in a component on financial secrecy in their own composite index.

Here are four recent examples of use of the Financial Secrecy Index in third party indices and databases:

How banks, businesses and investors are using the index for anti-money laundering and sustainability

In a global economy rife with financial secrecy and illicit flows, credible data is a frontline defence. The Tax Justice Network’s Data Portal provides direct access to the Financial Secrecy Index’s underly data — a vital resource for institutions committed to integrity, transparency, and regulatory compliance. The Data Portal is a one-stop-shop for data on countries’ regulations on tax and financial transparency consolidating data from the Tax Justice Network’s own research (predominantly, from the Financial Secrecy Index and Corporate Tax Haven Index, State of Tax Justice and the Policy Tracker) facilitating access to core indicators that assess systemic vulnerability to financial secrecy and tax abuse. It also includes data from international bodies, expert sources, and estimates from academic papers.

The data is free for non-commercial use, but commercial applications require licensing — a step already taken by major players across banking, fintech, sustainable investment, and compliance technology. Based on feedback from current licensees, we know the Tax Justice Network data is being used for the following purposes.

For anti-money laundering and compliance professionals, index data delivers essential insights. It enables country risk classification, strengthens Know You Customer (KYC) and Enhanced Due Diligence (EDD) procedures, and feeds directly into Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) risk models. Institutions also rely on it for tax evasion risk flagging, and for creating automated geographic risk scoring systems.

Usage among major financial actors is well established. At least eight of the world’s 100 largest banks, including 3 in the top 20, have a license to use Financial Secrecy Index data for compliance monitoring, internal risk scoring, and regulatory reporting. Global credit rating agencies, payment processors, and consulting firms use it to assess jurisdictional AML/CFT exposure. Leading ethical banks and internet banking platforms also leverage it to evaluate country and customer-level risk.

In the sustainable business sector, the Financial Secrecy Index supports supply chain risk management and due diligence. Companies use the data to build country profiles and evaluate supplier and business partner risks.

On the investment side, the Financial Secrecy Index supports Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) screening by helping fund managers exclude companies domiciled in or exposed to high-secrecy jurisdictions. Its insights are integrated into sovereign ESG ratings, governance indicators, and risk-based exclusion criteria, ensuring investors meet both regulatory standards and ethical mandates.

The Financial Secrecy Index s also embedded in risk technology platforms, feeding into Software as a Service (SaaS) tools for compliance automation, jurisdictional risk dashboards, and client due diligence systems. A recently published working paper discusses potential applications and models with the Financial Secrecy Index data in the context of the criminological and computer science literature. In short, the data has become instrumental to how risk-aware institutions operate.

In an era of global regulatory fragmentation and pervasive financial opacity, the Financial Secrecy Index provides a vital edge. It equips anti-money laundering experts, sustainable businesses, and financial institutions with the intelligence needed to expose hidden risks and build systems that don’t just comply—but push for change.

Conclusion

As global standards on transparency struggle to keep pace with financial innovation and secrecy, the Financial Secrecy Index stands out as a critical countermeasure. It offers not only a rigorous and independent assessment of jurisdictions’ contributions to global financial secrecy, but also a growing ecosystem of applications—from public-interest research and policy monitoring to the risk frameworks of financial institutions, sustainability actors, and regulators.

Beginning in 2025, the Financial Secrecy Index transitioned to a rolling update system, allowing for continuous responsiveness to regulatory changes. This dynamic cycle—more agile than many Financial Action Task Force (FATF) evaluations—ensures that reforms flagged in annual government consultations are verified, integrated, and made available within months, not years. The result is a risk assessment tool that is consistent, transparent, and responsive—essential qualities for institutions navigating volatile regulatory environments and evolving compliance obligations.

Financial Secrecy Index data is available free of charge for non-commercial public use, supporting the vital work of civil society, investigative journalism and open academic research. At the same time, licensed access for commercial users strengthens the long-term sustainability of the index, while contributing to the production of high quality, comparative legal and regulatory data for the public good. Harnessing detail and nuance, the Financial Secrecy Index contributes to a global infrastructure for accountability.