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Tax Justice Network ■ Millionaire “exodus” claim backtracked but media re-run story anyway

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Millionaire “exodus” claim backtracked but media re-run story anyway

Migrating millionaires make up less than 1% of millionaire populations

A non-existent millionaire exodus is being widely reported in the news again today, despite the authors of the claim backtracking on it following recent criticism by tax justice campaigners.

The media coverage is primarily based on a report published by Henley & Partners1, a firm that sells golden passports to the superrich and advises governments on setting up such schemes. The European Court of Justice recently ruled one such scheme, that of Malta, to be unlawful.2

Over 10,900 news pieces across print, broadcast and online news were published in 2024 covering Henley & Partner’s claims.3

The Tax Justice Network’s review of the Henley report – co-published earlier this month with Patriotic Millionaires UK and Tax Justice UK – finds that the number of millionaires claimed by Henley & Partners to be leaving countries in “exodus” in 2024 represented near-0% of those countries’ millionaire populations.4

Reviewing the new figures from Henley & Partners today reveals the same conclusions.

The “record-number” of 142,000 millionaires that the Henley report claims are leaving countries in 2025 once again represent just 0.2% of the global millionaire population (60 million).5

The migration rate of 0.2% is not only consistent with the average migration rate from 2013 to 2024, but is proportionally smaller than migration rates in 2016, 2017 and 2018, contrasting Henley’s claim of a record scale of migration.

Henley’s estimates, when put into perspective, reveal a picture that is at complete odds with the report’s narrative and media coverage: millionaires are highly immobile, and nearly 100% of millionaires have not relocated to a new country since 2013, if Henley’s estimates are to be taken at face value.

Henley backtracks on “exodus” language

In article published as part of the latest report, Henley & Partners’ Group Tax Director Peter Ferrigno walks backs on the language of “exodus” that was loosely and inconsistently used in previous Henley reporting.

Ferrigno writes:

“As a tax adviser, I never thought that my key task on a given day recently would be to be looking up the meaning of ‘exodus’ in a dictionary to justify whether it had been applicable to use that word in the context of taxpayers changing countries. I had an interview lined up with a UK media publication later that day that was challenging the use of the term ‘exodus’ to describe the net outflow of millionaires from Britain since Brexit. …

“The dictionary also says it’s any mass departure of people. Philosophically, is around 1% of a population really a ‘mass departure’? It depends on what agenda the newspaper wants to make a story out of.”

Earlier this month, the Tax Justice Network not only challenged that a migration of less than 1% cannot be qualified as an “exodus” but also pointed out Henley & Partners’ inconsistent use of the term “exodus” in its reporting. In 2021, Henley described 2000 millionaires leaving the UK as “insignificant” but in 2023 described 1600 millionaires leaving the UK an “exodus”. In 2023, the 6500 millionaires claimed to be leaving India were described as “not particularly concerning” but redescribed in 2024 as a “wealth exodus”.5

UK “record” migration proportionally smaller than other countries

The new Henley report claims that the UK is expected to see the largest exit of millionaires by any country since tracking began 10 years ago.

The 16,500 supposedly expected to leave the UK in 2025 represent just 0.63% of the UK’s millionaire population.

But taking Henley’s own estimates at face value, this UK move is smaller than India’s supposed 0.77% (6500) migration of its millionaire population in 2023, and South Africa’s supposed 0.66% (600) in 2024.6

While the number of millionaires leaving the UK might be higher in absolute numbers, when put into perspective they are neither significant nor larger in proportional scale than previous migration rates reported by Henley & Partners.

Julia Davies, member of Patriotic Millionaires UK, said:

“This report, like all the ones before it, is a complete non-story. Why should we bother giving a second glance to claims a mere half percent of millionaires might leave the UK? 

“It’s a packed week for those with vested interest in prioritising the needs and habits of the super rich. Just a day after Reform launched their golden ticket policy for departing non-doms — which would excuse foreign wealth holders from paying their fair share — Henley and Partners, a company that promotes golden visas for the super rich, claim there’s a wealth exodus. 

“Millionaires aren’t going anywhere — I know this because I am one; because this report claims only 0.6% are projected to leave; and because 81% of millionaires think it’s patriotic to pay their fair share. These cynical efforts to prioritise the political and financial interests of those who benefit from extreme wealth should be dismissed so we can get on with focusing on the needs of ordinary families here in Britain.”

Aleema Shivji, Interim Executive Director at Tax Justice UK said:

“Evidence from world-leading universities, academics and from very wealthy people themselves tells us that the overwhelming majority of millionaires want to keep the UK as the place they call home. Despite scaremongering reports with questionable methodologies, the super-rich are here to stay – nearly 100% of them preferring the UK over Dubai or Saudi Arabia. Moreover, they’re proud to pay their taxes and contribute to this country. Vested interests would like you to believe otherwise, but don’t be fooled by the wealth advisors and lobbyists that want to shape the system in their own interests.”

Scaremongering takes aim at EU

Henley’s latest reporting puts new attention on EU countries, claiming:

“For the first time, EU heavyweights France, Spain, and Germany are expected to see net HNWI losses in 2025 — with projected net outflows of –800, –500, and –400 millionaires, respectively. Ireland (–100), Norway (–150), and Sweden (–50) are also beginning to see significant wealth losses, with many affluent Europeans relocating to more investor-friendly hubs on the continent.”

As with the other claims about millionaires leaving, the numbers amount to near-0% when put into perspective.

 

Alex Cobham, chief executive at the Tax Justice Network, said:

“As we’ve shown, the basis for Henley report’s estimate of millionaire migration is shaky at best. And it seems they’ve addressed literally none of the problems with the report’s methodology that we and other academics and journalists have pointed out – but they have at least backtracked on calling these insignificant migrations an ‘exodus’.

“The majority of people want taxes on the superrich, the majority of millionaires are saying tax us, and all credible studies find only small migration responses. But what the media reported, and the government seems to have listened to, was a fictional millionaire ‘exodus’ based on questionable data, published by a firm that helps the superrich buy their way out of the rules that apply to everybody else. Tax is our most powerful tool for creating more equal societies, but scare stories like these are used to talk down to people and to block positive change.”  

“This should be a wakeup call for media professionals and government officials alike. Do your homework when it comes to tax. Treat the Henley report and any such claims about fleeing millionaires with extreme caution, and make sure your stories and your policy decisions are based on robust evidence.”

Issues with the Henley report’s methodology

The Tax Justice Network’s review of the Henley report flags several issues with the report’s methodology as well as contradictions in Henley & Partner’s reporting.

Strikingly, the report’s methodology states that its estimates are primarily a measure of where millionaires say they work on social media and not of where they live or reside, meaning the report does not track actual, physical migration – contrary to the presenting of the estimates in the press.

Moreover, the report uses a far narrower definition of ‘millionaires’ that does not include all dollar millionaires like the standard definition (people with net worth of 1 million dollars or more), but rather only individuals with liquid assets worth 1 million dollars or more, who are thus richer and more mobile on average than a standardly defined millionaire.7 In the case of the UK, the ‘millionaires’ identified by the report represent just a fifth (20%) of the UK millionaire population.8 Even then, the report is based on a small sample from within these narrowly defined millionaires and the sample is claimed to be skewed towards centi-millionaires and billionaires, who are also likely to be the most easily mobile.9

Media adds fuel to the fictional fire

The Tax Justice Network’s analysis of media coverage in 2024 of the Henley report finds that coverage often went far beyond any claims made in the report itself, contributing to an entirely unfounded narrative about the role of tax and government policies in causing a millionaire exodus which itself did not occur.

Tax was mentioned in half of global media coverage of the exodus and far more often than any other exodus drivers discussed in the Henley report.

The UK Labour party, which was not in power when the report was published in June 2024, was mentioned more than twice as much as the UK Conservative party in global media coverage, and nearly four times as much as Brexit in UK media coverage.

Note: Percentages show the number of mentions as a share of all global media coverage

The picture is more skewed in UK media coverage, where tax was mentioned in 71% of coverage and Labour mentioned in 43% of coverage.10

Seven high-profile millionaires leaving the UK were mentioned nearly three times more often in global media coverage than pro-tax millionaire campaign groups representing hundreds of millionaires.11

In contrast to the media narrative, 81% of UK millionaires agree with the statement that it is patriotic to pay a fair share of tax, according to a poll published on 5 June 2025 by Patriotic Millionaires UK. 80% of UK millionaires said they would support a wealth tax of 2% on wealth over £10 million.12

The Tax Justice Network’s review of the Henley report raised a number of other questions, including the statistical credibility of drawing any conclusions from a self-admittedly unrepresentative sample; and the degree of extrapolation necessary to make any findings about smaller groups such as billionaires.

On the report’s sample, the response sent by Henley & Partners said:

“Statistically, if it is consistent year by year, then laws of statistical sampling mean that it can be used to draw a conclusion.”

About Henley & Partners and New World Wealth

Henley & Partners was accused in a 2018 UK Parliamentary inquiry of meddling in the elections of Caribbean nations in return for the exclusive rights to sell golden passports.13 Henley & Partners told The Guardian it “fundamentally rejects any allegation of wrongdoing”.14 A recent Financial Times article identified an EU-sanctioned Russian businessman with links to the Ukraine invasion who could more easily circumvent travel restrictions due to a Maltese golden passport Henley helped him acquire in the past.15 A spokesperson for Henley & Partners told the Financial Times that while she “could not comment on individual cases because of missing information and data protection… an individual ‘may pass all the stringent due diligence tests imposed, but still go on to engage in criminal activity.’”16

Golden passports are now unlawful in the EU following a successful court challenge brought by the European Commission against Malta’s scheme, on which Henley & Partners had advised. The Commission said such schemes pose serious risks for money laundering, tax evasion and corruption.17 Henley & Partners told media in response that it was “disappointed” but that the decision “will only increase the demand for specialized advisors”.18

The report is published by Henley & Partners but prepared by New World Wealth19, which describes itself as a “wealth intelligence firm” on its website. New World Wealth appears to have only one staff member and has not made the data behind its calculations public.

New World Wealth has been publishing estimates on millionaire migrations for at least a decade, and first began to publish its estimates with Henley & Partners in 2022.

-ENDS-

Update 12:45pm BST 24 June 2025:

The Tax Justice Network is sharing one more insight on the migration claims: The UK millionaire population grew 10 times faster than the rate of millionaires leaving the UK since 2017. 41,400 millionaires supposedly left since 2017 when summing up all the migration estimates New World Wealth has reported for the UK since 2017. But there are 435,000 more millionaires in the UK today according to the UBS Global Wealth 2025 report. The total number of millionaires that New World Wealth claims left the UK since 2017 sum up to just 2% of the UK’s millionaire population in 2017 (2.2 million). But the UK’s millionaire population today is 20% bigger than it was it 2017 according to UBS.

Contact the press team: [email protected] or +44 (0)7562 403078

Read the our review of the Henley report (password: no#exodus)

Notes to Editor

  1. The Henley Private Wealth Migration Report 2025 is available here. The report’s estimates are prepared by New World Wealth.
  2. See this FT article for more information about the European Court of Justice’s ruling and Henley & Partners role in the Maltese scheme. See the press release from the Court here.
  3. See the Tax Justice Network’s review of the Henley 2024 report here.
  4. Ibid.
  5. See the UBS Global Wealth Report 2025.
  6. Henley reported India to be losing 6500 millionaires in 2023. The UBS 2023 Global Wealth Report estimated India’s millionaire population to be at 849,000. Henley reported South Africa to be losing 600 millionaires in 2024. The UBS 2024 Global Wealth Report estimated India’s millionaire population to be at 849,000.
  7. The Henley report’s methodology states: “The firm [New World Wealth] uses various public sources to check city locations, including LinkedIn and other business portals. Its stats are therefore mainly based on the work locations of the individuals.” The methodology is available at the bottom of this webpage. The Henley report’s author stated in a 2024 BBC interview that the group of UK ‘millionaires’ as defined in the report totalled 602,000, which is around one fifth of the UK’s millionaire population reported at the time in the UBS Global Wealth Report 2024.
  8. See the Henley report’s methodology at the bottom of this webpage.
  9. The Henley report’s author Andrew Amolis acknowledged in an interview with BBC More or Less that the report’s sample is skewed. Presenter Tim Harford challenged Mr Amolis further (emphasis added):Andrew Amoils: Most of the database – I’d say between twenty and a hundred million dollars in assets, that would be the bulk of the database. So our data is skewed to the top end, so there will be the billionaires and the centimillionaires with over a hundred million, with some of the people lower down it’s more difficult to know if they are a high net worth.Tim Harford: But wait, aren’t these super-rich more easily able to skip off to Monaco or Dubai than your run of a mill dollar millionaire?AA: No, you’re right, 100%, that would be an issue. Though I would argue that the super-wealthy leaving is obviously the most important, because if you’ve got a banker at Goldman Sachs who’s making five hundred thousand pounds a year and they leave, that has very little impact whereas if somebody with over a hundred million who’s got a business leaves, the impact’s much greater.TH: Sure, but the headlines are not about a few people controlling a huge amount of money leaving, the headlines are about 9000 millionaires leaving. So the headlines imply that there is some kind of representative sample, and there’s some kind of reasonable extrapolation, but from based on what you’ve told me I don’t think we really can reasonably extrapolate, given the methods you’re describing.AA: Well how else would you do it? I mean, we’ve got a sample of 150000 high net worths globally, and we’re tracking them in terms of their movements. How else would you do it? How else would you work out where people are going, apart from the way we’re doing it?TH: Well I think if you don’t have a representative sample, you don’t have any basis to make the claim at all.

    AA: Well I would argue it is a representative sample. 150000 people, that’s a lot!

    TH: But you just told us it wasn’t representative. The sheer number of people doesn’t make it representative.

  10. Looking specifically at UK media coverage, we find the mentions of themes and drivers to be far more skewed towards tax and Labour.Source: The millionaire exodus myth, Tax Justice Network, June 2025
  11. The seven high-profile millionaires reportedly moving away from the UK – Charlie Mullins, Christian Angermayer, Alan Howard, Nassef Sawiris, Asif Aziz and Bassim Haidar – were mentioned in 199 articles. In contrast, Patriotic Millionaires, Patriotic Millionaires UK, Millionaires for Humanity, Tax Me Now and Proud to Pay More – campaigning groups representing over 300 millionaires calling on governments to tax them more – were mentioned 73 times. The seven migrating millionaires were mentioned 2.7 times more than the pro-tax millionaires groups.
  12. See Patriotic Millionaire UK’s polling here.
  13. More information about the inquiry in this FT article. Read The Guardian’s 2018 investigation here.
  14. See Henley’s response to the Guardian here.
  15. Read the FT’s investigation on Maltese golden passports sold to Russians here.
  16. See note 10 for Henley’s response.
  17. See note 2.
  18. See Henley’s statement on the European Court of Justice’s ruling here.
  19. See New World Wealth’s website.

 

About the Tax Justice Network

The Tax Justice Network believes our tax and financial systems are our most powerful tools for creating a just society that gives equal weight to the needs of everyone. But under pressure from corporate giants and the super-rich, our governments have programmed these systems to prioritise the wealthiest over everybody else, wiring financial secrecy and tax havens into the core of our global economy. This fuels inequality, fosters corruption and undermines democracy. We work to repair these injustices by inspiring and equipping people and governments to reprogramme their tax and financial systems.

 

About Patriotic Millionaires UK

Patriotic Millionaires UK is a nonpartisan network of British millionaires, from multiple industries and backgrounds from across the UK. It delivers a single mission – to leverage the voice of wealth to build a better Britain by changing the system to end extreme wealth and make those with it make their fair and proper contribution.

 

About Tax Justice UK

The UK’s approach to tax isn’t working. Our government fails to raise enough money to support high quality public services and wealth is desperately under-taxed. We campaign for a fairer tax system that takes more from the very wealthy. A tax system that actively redistributes wealth to tackle inequality; and that funds high quality public services. Our mission is to ensure that everyone in the UK benefits from a fair and effective tax system. Tax Justice UK is a partner of – but independent from – the Tax Justice Network.